If there is going to be a second Trump-Kim summit I would think there is going to be a major announcement from the summit instead of the generalities that came out of the first summit:
U.S. envoy to North Korea Stephen Begun meets with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Seoul, Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2018. COURTESY OF THE BLUE HOUSE
South Korea’s president called on the United States and North Korea to make “bold decisions” to put nuclear negotiations back on track as the White House announced planning is underway for a second summit between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un.
President Moon Jae-in, who plans to travel to Pyongyang next week for his own meeting with Kim, said he has no choice but to play mediator to promote dialogue between the longtime adversaries.
Talks aimed at persuading the North to give up nuclear weapons have stalled since Trump and Kim vowed to work toward the “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” at their June 12 summit in Singapore.
But Trump welcomed a North Korean military parade over the weekend that left out the usual long-range missiles and focused on peace and economic development in what was seen as a gesture toward rekindling talks with Washington.
Moon said Tuesday that the North must dismantle its nuclear weapons programs and the U.S. must take a corresponding step.
“If we would like to move to a higher level … bold ideas and decisions by the leaders of North Korea and the United States are necessary,” he said during a Cabinet meeting, according to a transcript from his office. “In the process, both countries must end the deep-rooted, mutual distrust stemming from 70 years of hostile relations.” [Stars & Stripes]
You can read more at the link, but when President Moon talks about “bold decisions” what he means is that President Trump needs to sign up for the “pretend denuclearization” plan. Does anyone really expect Kim Jong-un is going to show up at a second summit and hand over his nukes to President Trump?
It is pretty clear that President Moon and Kim Jong-un are going to be putting a full court press on President Trump to declare an end to the Korean War this year:
South Korean President Moon Jae-in said his goal is to make “irreversible progress by the end of the year” toward denuclearization and a permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula in an interview on Friday.
A tangible step in that direction would be a formal declaration to end the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended with an armistice agreement, not a peace treaty, Moon told Indonesia’s Kompas newspaper in a written interview published two days after his special envoy returned from a trip to Pyongyang and met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
The interview came ahead of Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s three-day state visit to Seoul kicking off Monday. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but I expect a lot of flattery and pretend denuclearization concessions from the North Koreans to get him to agree to end the Korean War. Kim is probably hoping that Trump will go along with the pretend denuclearization strategy as way to boost poll numbers prior to the mid-term elections in the US. We should see over the next couple of months if pretend denuclearization will be what Trump decides to do.
So why are President Moon and Kim Jong-un so intent on end the Korean War? That is because once the war is officially ended this then challenges the legitimacy of the US-ROK alliance. If there is no longer hostilities between the two Koreas then why does the US military need to be there?
I believe that President Moon is too smart to advocate against keeping USFK in Korea post-peace treaty because that will mobilize the conservative opposition against him. However, Moon can use his surrogates to make life difficult for USFK to where the Trump administration could decide to withdraw on its own. This gets Moon and his left wing base in South Korea what they ultimately want, USFK withdrawal without getting blamed for it.
Kim Jong-un and President Trump are continuing their pen pal relationship:
U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday he expects to receive a “positive letter” from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said that he knows a personal letter from Kim is going to be delivered to him, adding that it was handed over at the border the day before.
This border Trump refers to is suspected to be the inter-Korean border, but a detailed route of the letter’s delivery was not provided.
Trump said the letter will likely be delivered to him by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and added that “It’s an elegant way, the way it used to be many years ago before we had all of the new contraptions that we all use.”
Trump also said he thinks it’s going to be a positive letter. [KBS World Radio]
I have to wonder what flattery and empty denuclearization promise will be in the letter that Kim is going to try and use to sway President Trump to make a major concession? My guess would be the major concession Kim will ask for is a treaty to end the Korean War.
It appears that the North Koreans are still trying to use flattery with President Trump to get sanctions removed instead of denuclearizing:
U.S. President Donald Trump thanked North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and pledged to work together with him on Thursday after Kim said via a South Korean envoy that his faith in Trump remains unchanged.
“Kim Jong Un of North Korea proclaims ‘unwavering faith in President Trump.’ Thank you to Chairman Kim. We will get it done together!” Trump tweeted.
South Korea’s chief presidential security adviser, Chung Eui-yong, made a one-day trip to Pyongyang on Wednesday and held talks with the North’s leader amid a deadlock in denuclearization negotiations between the United States and the North.
During the talks, Kim told Chung’s delegation that he remains firmly committed to denuclearization and that his faith in Trump remains unchanged, even though nuclear negotiations with the U.S. encountered difficulties, according to Chung.
Kim was also quoted as saying he’s never spoken ill of Trump to anybody. [Yonhap]
Kim Jong-un best be careful, Bob Woodward will probably claim he found an anonymous source that he talked bad about President Trump.
Here are some of the excerpts involving the Korean peninsula from Bob Woodward’s new book about the Trump administration:
A former senior adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump removed a document from the president’s desk to stop him from signing off on withdrawing the United States from a trade deal with South Korea, a news report citing an unpublished book said Tuesday.
Bob Woodward, a Washington Post journalist known for his investigative reporting on the Watergate scandal, wrote the anecdote in his new book, “Fear,” set for release next week, the paper said.
Woodward also wrote, based on in-depth interviews with administration officials whose identities were not revealed, that Trump’s handling of the North Korean nuclear threat caused anxiety among his subordinates.
“According to Woodward, Cohn ‘stole a letter off Trump’s desk’ that the president was intending to sign to formally withdraw the United States from a trade agreement with South Korea,” the Post wrote, referring to Trump’s former top economic adviser, Gary Cohn.
“Cohn later told an associate that he removed the letter to protect national security and that Trump did not notice that it was missing,” it said.
Trump is known to have considered terminating the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement last year before stopping short due to tensions over North Korea’s sixth nuclear test in September.
The two sides later renegotiated the deal but have yet to formally sign it. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
I find it hard to believe that something as significant as withdrawing from the US-ROK FTA would be something that President Trump would just forget about, he probably never intended to sign it in the first place. This just seems like typical Trump approach of making a threatening demand to show his seriousness to later settle for a better deal.
At a National Security Council meeting in January, Trump downplayed the importance of the U.S. troop presence in South Korea and questioned why government resources were being spent in the region, the paper quoted the book as saying.
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis responded, “We’re doing this in order to prevent World War III,” it said. “After Trump left the meeting, Woodward recounts, ‘Mattis was particularly exasperated and alarmed, telling close associates that the president acted like – and had the understanding of – ‘a fifth- or sixth-grader.’”
I find it believable that Secretary Mattis made the “prevent World War III” comment, but I find it hard to believe that Secretary Mattis would openly mock the President in front of his aides.
One month into the Trump administration, U.S. Joint Chief of Staff Chairman Joe Dunford was “rattled” when Trump asked him to prepare a plan for a pre-emptive military strike on North Korea.
I doubt someone of General Dunford’s stature and experience gets “rattled” by much of anything. I would hope the Pentagon has a pre-emptive strike plan for North Korea on the shelf. If the President wants to review it that seems prudent.
And last fall, Trump mocked North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at a United Nations speech by calling him “Little Rocket Man.” Aides worried that he may be provoking Kim, but the president told his then aide Rob Porter that it was a “contest of wills,” according to The Post’s account of the book.
“This is all about leader versus leader. Man versus man. Me versus Kim,” Trump was quoted as saying.
This last excerpt I can actually see the President saying.
President Trump is now saying he still supports a suspension of joint military drills and blames China for the recent gridlock on denuclearization:
The White House said Wednesday the U.S. decision to suspend major combined military exercises with South Korea holds true despite a stalemate in efforts to denuclearize North Korea.
President Donald Trump believes “there is no reason at this time to be spending large amounts of money on joint U.S.-South Korea war games,” his office said in a statement posted on his Twitter account.
It cited Trump’s “good and warm” relationship with the North’s leader Kim Jong-un stemming from their historic Singapore summit on June 12.
Trump thinks China is to blame, at least partially, for the recent gridlock highlighted by the cancellation of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s trip to Pyongyang this week.
He “feels strongly that North Korea is under tremendous pressure from China because of our major trade disputes with the Chinese Government,” the statement read.
Furthermore, it added, China is providing North Korea with “considerable aid, including money, fuel, fertilizer and various other commodities. This is not helpful!” [Yonhap]
You can read much more at the link, but I am sure the Chinese are not being helpful on the nuclear issue, however I have never believed the Kim regime has wanted to denuclearize anyway. Their strategy has long been getting concessions for pretend denuclearization.
It was only a matter of time before some lawyers would round up BMW owners in Korea and start launching lawsuits. What is interesting is that they are calling on President Trump to do the investigating for them since he is supposedly hostile to German auto manufacturers:
Ha Jong-sun of Barun Law, who is leading a class action suit against BMW over fire-prone engines, speaks during a press conference at the law firm’s office in Seoul, Monday. The lawyer said BMW drivers in Korea would file lawsuits against government officials and send letters to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.S. President Donald Trump. / Yonhap
BMW drivers in Korea sent letters to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.S. President Donald Trump to urge the German and U.S. authorities to investigate the cause of engine fires in BMW vehicles, an attorney for the drivers said Monday.
The so-called “BMW fire victims group” consisting of 1,000 BMW car owners in Korea also said they are considering filing lawsuits against government officials at the transport and environment ministries for their alleged dereliction of duty.
“We decided to send letters to Merkel via German Ambassador to Korea Stephan Auer to ask the German government and prosecutors to investigate BMW headquarters for its alleged concealment of the defect,” Ha Jong-sun of Barun Law told reporters at the law firm’s office in Seoul.
The lawyer added the victims would send letters to Trump to call on him to issue an executive order to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board to initiate its own investigation into potential defects in exhaust-gas recirculation (EGR) valves and coolers in BMW’s SUVs.
“Accordingly there is an immediate need to check the safety of EGR valves and coolers in X3, X5 and X6 diesel SUVs sold in the U.S. to prevent fatal car fires and save innocent lives on U.S. highways and roads,” Lee Gwang-deok said in the letter.
The victims plan to ship a burnt BMW vehicle to the U.S., as the cause of its fire has not been discovered in Korea.
They expect the U.S. president to take an appropriate measure, considering he has been hostile toward German carmakers. [Korea Times]
President Trump’s canceling Secretary Pompeo’s trip to Pyongyang is certainly a surprise since is comes only 24 hours after announcing a new envoy for North Korea and affirming the diplomatic mission. This reflects poor coordination on the administration’s North Korea policy.
Trump's incompetence is just mind-blowing. Anyone could have told you that the Chinese would hit back across issue-linkages if we targeted its export trade. Presumably they'll be tougher on the South China Sea too. Was there any US counter-planning for this near-certainty on /1 https://t.co/YXZSYaF1pI
This is just another indication that President Trump is not about to sign up for a “pretend denuclearization” deal with the North Koreans like Seoul, Beijing, and Moscow want him to do:
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, second from left, is greeted by North Korean Director of the United Front Department Kim Yong Chol, center, and North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, second from right, as he arrives at Sunan International Airport in Pyongyang, North Korea, on July 6, 2018.
South Korea on Saturday called the U.S. decision to call off a trip to North Korea by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo unfortunate and said that continued diplomacy was most crucial in resolving the nuclear standoff with Pyongyang.
The statement by the Foreign Ministry in Seoul came hours after President Donald Trump directed Pompeo to delay his trip because of what he saw as a lack of progress on nuclear disarmament talks with the North. Trump also said the nuclear negotiations with North Korea have been hampered by the lack of support from China, the North’s only major ally that’s engaged in an intensifying trade dispute with the United States.
While describing the delayed trip as a setback, the ministry said it would be most important for the allies to pursue “substantial progress” on denuclearization. South Korea expects China to continue serving a “constructive role” in international efforts to solve the nuclear crisis and noted that Beijing continues to express commitment to fully implement sanctions against the North, the ministry said.
“While we consider the delay of the visit to North Korea as unfortunate, we believe it’s most important for the North Korea-U.S. dialogue including Secretary Pompeo’s visits to North Korea to contribute to substantial progress in complete denuclearization and the establishment of a permanent peace regime in the Korean Peninsula.” [Associated Press]
You can read more at the link, but what is going on is that I think President Trump is sending a message to not only North Korea, but to Beijing and Seoul as well. China is not strictly enforcing sanctions on North Korea and even the South Koreans have not been effectively enforcing sanctions either. This is going to come down to who is going to blink first because the North Koreans will not commit to real denuclearization unless sanctions are fully enforced on them. As long as other countries like China continue to not strictly enforce sanctions the Kim regime will feel no expediency to denuclearize at the pace the Trump administration wants.
