https://twitter.com/pearswick/status/661076461978124288
Condom sales slump as China announces end to one child policy https://t.co/XmdNcKMyrb pic.twitter.com/c9ibMA8zVT
— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) November 1, 2015
#Breaking Chinese Premier #LiKeqiang meets with Japanese PM Shinzo Abe in Seoul at the request of Japan. pic.twitter.com/Gjc6uYul5O
— CGTN (@CGTNOfficial) November 1, 2015
That is what the below article in the Daily Beast is speculating on. I have said this for a long time that if the Kim regime was to collapse the South Koreans are going to have immediately move to secure North Korea before the Chinese do. It should also be done without US troops. US troops moving north just legitimizes Chinese intervention into North Korea. Once the Chinese are in the ROK government may never get them out:
At the beginning of last week, Seoul launched a new round of China diplomacy to encourage Beijing to play a “constructive role” in denuclearizing North Korea. Optimally this marks a new era of cooperation between Seoul and Beijing, but it could also be part of a process leading to China’s colonization of the North.
The move follows President Park Geun-hye’s controversial trip to the Chinese capital in early September to participate in the military parade marking the 70thanniversary of the end of World War II. Washington, worried that South Korea was making itself a Chinese satellite, had tried to discourage her from attending the event.
Short of extraordinary measures, there is little the U.S. can do about Park’s increasingly visible tilt to China. Her mission is to seek the peaceful reunification of the two Koreas—her so-called Dresden Initiative announced in March of last year—and she has moved to enlist the Chinese by charming them into cooperation, seeking to engage them at every opportunity.
Park’s efforts to woo China look like they are paying off. Seoul, not Pyongyang, is Beijing’s friend these days on the Korean Peninsula. It is telling that Xi Jinping traveled to Seoul in July 2014, the first time a leader of the People’s Republic visited the South before going to the North. And in fact, he has yet to visit Pyongyang, the capital of his country’s only formal military ally, in his position as China’s president.
Despite all the smiles, the fear in Seoul is that China will frustrate Park’s vision of a unified Korean nation by sending its army south and either leaving behind a puppet regime or even colonizing North Korea. [The Daily Beast]
You can read the rest at the link.
It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out. The Chinese have so much invested in these South China Sea islands I just don’t see them backing down even if the UN court rules against them. The domestic political blowback would be too much with accusations of the Chinese government backing down to foreigners. The UN court though could legitimize the freedom of navigation patrols which are currently being executed by the US Navy. The ruling is supposed to be released sometime in 2016:
The Hague (AFP) – An international tribunal ruled Thursday it had the power to hear a case brought by the Philippines over disputed islands in the South China Sea, in a move likely to trigger fury in Beijing.
Manila has insisted the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which the Philippines and China have both ratified, should be used to resolve the bitter territorial row over isolated reefs and islets, which has triggered growing international alarm.
But China has refused to participate in the proceedings, arguing the Permanent Court of Arbitration — which is more than a century old and based in The Hague — had no jurisdiction over the case.
“Reviewing the claims submitted by the Philippines, the tribunal has rejected the argument” by China that the “dispute is actually about sovereignty over the islands in the South China Sea and therefore beyond the tribunal’s jurisdiction,” the court said in a statement.
Instead, the court ruled the case reflects “disputes between the two states concerning the interpretation or application of the Convention” — something which falls within its remit.
China insists it has sovereign rights to nearly all of the South China Sea, a strategic waterway through which about a third of all the world’s traded oil passes.
The disputed waters — claimed in part by Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Brunei — have also become the stage for a tussle for regional dominance between Beijing and Washington, the world’s two largest economic and military powers.
Following a stand-off between Chinese ships and the weak Filipino Navy in 2012, China took control of a rich fishing ground called Scarborough Shoal that is within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. [Associated Press]
You can read the rest at the link.
Chinese Internet posters are supposedly going bonkers over the fact that a US Navy ship conducted a freedom of navigation patrol through the South China Sea which the Chinese government ridiculously claims is part of China:
On Oct. 27, the high-stakes maritime game of chicken that has been playing out in the South China Sea came to a head. In a long-discussed freedom of navigation patrol, the United States sailed the USS Lassen, a guided missile destroyer, within 12 miles of artificial islands that China has built amid territorial disputes in the South China Sea. China tracked and warned the U.S. vessel; the operation concluded without incident and prompted swift condemnation from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. But after weeks of tough government rhetoric claiming that China would not stand for what it views as a violation of its territorial sovereignty, Chinese social media voices are now mocking what many perceive as a spineless official response. [Foreign Policy]
Despite all the online venom to attack the US ship one Chinese Internet user left a popular post which accurately reflects what I think is going on:
China’s shrill online nationalists may dominate the web in the aftermath of a flashpoint, but while common, such online outrage has not led to government action in the past. And some netizens harbor more nuanced perspectives. One particularly discerning Weibo user, who identified himself as a 22-year-old native of China’s northeastern Shandong province, also seemed to take the long view of the South China Sea, noting the behind-the-scenes machinations that make the region so complex. “This seems like a game,” wrote the user in a popular comment. “Not only have both countries maintained their reputations, neither country has suffered any losses.” Another observed somewhat sardonically that the situation, all told, was “well managed.” The user noted that China had “gotten rid of the U.S. ship, maintained its sovereignty, and hasn’t worsened the situation. Afterwards, it can be used as an excuse for militarization in the South China Sea.”
Like I have said before the US’s and China’s interests in the South China Sea do no necessarily come into conflict. From the US perspective we want freedom of navigation through the SCS. From the Chinese perspective they want strategic space to defend the sea lanes leading to the southeastern China and to a lesser extent the fishing and mineral rights. As long as each side respects the others interests in the SCS there is no reason for conflict unless the Chinese government is stupid enough to listen to hateful commenters on the Internet.
With the amount of money this guy was able to fraud people out of, it seems it would be really easy for him to bribe people to fake his death:
The purported death of Cho Hee-pal, the mastermind behind South Korea’s largest-ever fraud case, returned to the spotlight as his close aide was arrested in China last week, with fresh testimonies suggesting he is actually still alive.
Cho is one of the most-wanted conmen in South Korea, having allegedly scammed up to 50,000 people out of an estimated 4 trillion won ($3.5 billion) in a pyramid marketing scheme.
The purported death of Cho Hee-pal, the mastermind behind South Korea’s largest-ever fraud case, returned to the spotlight as his close aide was arrested in China last week, with fresh testimonies suggesting he is actually still alive.
Cho is one of the most-wanted conmen in South Korea, having allegedly scammed up to 50,000 people out of an estimated 4 trillion won ($3.5 billion) in a pyramid marketing scheme. [Korea Herald]
You can read the rest at the link, but just think the $3.5 billion this guy swindled people out of is nothing compared to the $18 billion Bernie Madoff swindle people out of the in the US. At least Madoff is sitting in jail unlike Cho who likely still living freely in China.
Despite ups and downs, the China-US relationship has largely been improving: http://t.co/1gj2WpZmot pic.twitter.com/61AMQzeJY9
— China US Focus (@ChinaUSFocus) October 2, 2015
The Chinese have indicated that they will attend the 70th Anniversary of the Workers’ Party celebration in North Korea which leads me to believe the the Chinese government must have convinced the Kim regime to not begin another provocation cycle:
North Korea is likely to go for an ostentatious military parade for the celebration of the ruling party’s founding anniversary later this month, instead of a much-trumpeted launch of long-range missile, according to officials on Friday.
North Korea is expected to celebrate the landmark 70th anniversary of the foundation of the Workers’ Party of Korea on Oct. 10 with unusual events to show off its military might as the country has often done on major occasions.
Launch of a long-range missile has been the most speculated event, but officials said North Korea has so far not shown any signs of preparations for the launch before the anniversary date.
Instead, the country is putting together a military parade at an airfield in Pyongyang, which may involve new types of weapons.
“Various equipment and troops like combat jets, artillery equipment and missiles have been deployed to the Mirim Airport in Pyongyang. The North is preparing a parade event in commemoration of the party foundation,” a government official said. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link.
This is why whenever the Chinese claim about historical revisionism in Japan I have to roll my eyes because they are just as bad at making up history to suit their political purposes:
The Chinese intervention in the 1950-53 Korean War had safeguarded peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, according to China’s ambassador to North Korea on Thursday, echoing controversial views from China that the war was waged out of U.S. aggression.
Ambassador Li Jinjun made the remarks on Wednesday when he paid his tribute to the Chinese troops killed during the war. Wednesday marked China’s Martyrs’ Day on the eve of the country’s National Day.
The Korean War broke out on June 25, 1950, when tank-led North Korean troops invaded South Korea. The United States and 20 other allied countries fought on the side of South Korea under the United Nations flag, while Chinese soldiers came to help North Korea. The conflict ended in a cease-fire on July 27, 1953.
During his visit to a cemetery of Chinese war dead in North Korea, Li praised the role of the Chinese intervention in the Korean War.
“You fought with the North Korean army and people to defeat the imperialist aggressors,” Li said, according to his remarks posted on the Chinese Embassy’s website.
The Chinese intervention in the Korean War “revived the cold breeze of China, safeguarded peace and stability in the region and around the world,” Li said.
Despite warming ties between South Korea and China, the Chinese view of how the Korean War started also remains controversial.
China’s school textbooks stop short of mentioning that North Korea’s invasion sparked the Korean War, and the Chinese Communist Party officially refers to the three-year conflict as “The War to Resist the U.S. and Aid North Korea.” [Yonhap]
