It appears that the US and South Korea has finally come to the conclusion that the country they need to be negotiating with to halt the Kim regime’s nuclear program is not North Korea, but instead China:
Since President Park Geun-hye expressed skepticism over the efficacy of the long-stalled six-party talks and called for five-party talks — excluding North Korea — last Friday, the allies and China seem to be split with Beijing in favor of keeping the six-party format intact.
The talks involving the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia have not been held since late 2008. Park thus proposed exploring “various and creative ways” including holding the five-party talks to tackle the North’s nuclear conundrum, her aides said.
Washington has offered support for Park’s proposal for the five-party talks, while Beijing urged the early resumption of the six-party talks that it has hosted — a move that observers say displayed its disapproval of the five-way formula.
“The United States supports President Park’s call for a five-party meeting. We believe coordination with the other parties would be a useful step in our ongoing efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula through credible and authentic negotiations,” a spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Seoul said in a statement to the local media. [Korea Herald]
A couple of interesting Op-eds have been published recently. The first op-ed published on CNN includes Joshua Stanton a ROK Drop favorite that blogs over at One Free Korea. The op-ed emphasizes two key points
The only way to change this equation is to persuade Pyongyang that its regime preservation is dependent on reform and disarmament.
Washington may achieve this with a two-pronged strategy targeting Pyongyang’s systemic vulnerabilities: First, block the Kim Jong Un regime’s offshore hard currency reserves and income with financial sanctions, including secondary sanctions against its foreign enablers. This would significantly diminish, if not altogether deny, Kim the means to pay his military, security forces and elites that repress the North Korean public.
Second, delegitimize Kim’s rule in the eyes of his people and the world by engaging them through broadcasting and other information operations directed at the North Korean people, reinforced by a sustained diplomatic campaign to demand accountability for the regime’s crimes against humanity. [CNN]
Here is probably the most important paragraph of the op-ed:
Through each of Pyongyang’s previous nuclear and long-range missile tests, U.S. policymakers have harbored the illusion that Beijing’s patience with Pyongyang must have finally run out.
But all Beijing has done so far is demonstrate a disingenuous pattern of diplomatic ambidexterity. China will not solve the North Korea problem for the United States until China sees the Kim regime as a financial liability, a threat to its own security or a threat to stability along its own border.
The Kim regime knows that they can survive any sanctions as long as the Chinese continue to believe that regime stability is in their strategic interests. This is why they continue to conduct provocations like the latest nuclear test despite Chinese objections because they know they can get away with it. China’s strategic interests in regards to North Korea much shift before any real change in North Korea can occur.
The CSIS report favors deploying the THAAD missile defense system to South Korea. I think it is pretty clear that there is no debate left on the military utility of deploying the THAAD system to Korea, it is strictly a political issue at this point:
A Congress-commissioned study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has recommended deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) anti-ballistic missile system in South Korea in light of the growing missile threat from Pyongyang.
The Thaad system provides a “valuable capability” for South Korea, the Washington-based think tank said in its January report reviewing U.S. defense strategy in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, it added, “Chinese demarches have made the potential U.S. deployment of Thaad on the Korean Peninsula a sensitive issue for Seoul, despite the fact that South Korea has no area defense capabilities against North Korean ballistic missiles.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
Tzuyu, shown in the photo, of K-pop girl group TWICE will temporarily suspend appearances in China after she became mired in a controversy for waving the Taiwanese national flag in an online broadcast in South Korea, according to her agency in Seoul on Jan. 14, 2016. She waved the flag while appearing in a popular TV show “My Little Television” in November last year, the portion of which was not aired on the terrestrial channel but was seen belatedly by online viewers in China. Her agency, JYP Entertainment, said it does not promote political agendas and expressed regret over the controversy. Tzuyu is a Taiwanese native in the multinational, nine-member girl group. (Photo provided by JYP Entertainment) (Yonhap)
I have always said that the Chinese have the power to bring the Kim regime into line if they wanted to. The biggest card the Chinese could use against the Kim regime is to indefinitely suspend oil shipments. They won’t do this though because they fear the collapse of the Kim regime more than they fear them developing nuclear weapons:
If China were to pull the plug on its oil supply to North Korea as a countermeasure against Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test, what kind of impact would it have on the country? Most agree that a halt in oil would trigger a ‘mass oil panic’ across the Party, military, and state, crippling all agencies, given that the North currently imports more than 90 percent of its oil from its neighbor. In an event such as this, a still young leadership that lacks stability would not be able to hold up for a week, according to experts.
The oil that goes into the North either after for free or at a cost first goes to a storage facility in Baekma, North Pyongan Province (near Sinuiju) and is stored there until being supplied to state agencies, transport-related factories, and military bases, which have priority. The main route of supply is through the pipeline that runs from China’s Dandong to the North’s Baekma. The first area this stored oil is then sent to is Pyongyang by train and truck after which it is delivered to main Party agencies, transport, and shipping bodies.
Next in line is Nampo as well as ports and military bases near the west coast. The supply in Baekma is also transported to another storage facility in Munchon on the east coast, which provides for state enterprises, agencies, and military bases in that area. In short, oil from China powers nearly all of the North’s state entities, military facilities, and factories, explaining why cutting off that supply would grind the country to a halt.
A North Korean defector who once worked within the oil supply chain speculates the suspension would create conditions that are so bad Kim Jong Un would be desperate to restore the supply. Although the North has a three-month emergency supply, that is reserved for times of war and would therefore be untouchable.
The freeze would disrupt operations within the Central Party, related agencies, administrative bodies, and the military. Cadres of all affiliations would face no heat in their offices, making it hard to work in a normal capacity, and their movements would also be restricted as there would be no gasoline or diesel to run their cars. Workers would also not have a means to get around, likely shuttering state agencies and factories. [Daily NK]
Global Voices has an interesting article posted that shows a variety of reactions from Chinese Internet users in regards to North Korea’s recent nuclear test. It seems at least some people in China are beginning to realize what a danger North Korea is to not only the ROK, US and Japan, but China now as well:
China and North Korea border. Photo from VOA Chinese.
Instead of condemning the nuclear test, Beijing took a more moderate stance, saying it “firmly opposes” the test and urged North Korea to “remain committed to its denuclearisation commitment”.
On the other hand, Chinese netizens grew more and more impatient with the government’s tolerance of their “insane” neighbor. It wasn’t only polarizing US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump who said China is the one who should deal with North Korea. On Chinese Twitter-like Weibo, many voiced their criticism of the government’s diplomatic policy in a news thread discussing North Korea’s H-bomb test.
Below are a selection of popular comments that have received more than 1,000 likes: [Global Voices]
You can read the various reactions at the link.
Also of interest is that One Free Korea in a great opinion piece that I highly recommend everyone read included a link to a Yonhap article that shows that even the Chinese state controlled media is confirming increasing public frustration with North Korea:
In China’s strict-controlled online media, public resentment against North Korea’s fourth nuclear test is growing with some social media users criticizing their government for not taking a tougher response to the North’s test.
Since North Korea announced that it had successfully carried out a hydrogen bomb test last Wednesday, a newspaper published by the Chinese Communist Party has conducted five rounds of online opinion polls about the North’s test.
In one opinion poll of some 42,500 people by the state-run Global Times, 81 percent say the North’s nuclear test poses a threat to China’s security.
In another poll of 4,900 people by the same paper, 82 percent responded that they support new sanctions by the U.N. Security Council against North Korea. [Yonhap]
If he some how gets elected it will be interesting to see if Trump is able to back up his big talk because getting China to do something on North Korea is not as easy as he makes it sound:
Calling North Korea a “disgrace,” Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump said Sunday that China should solve the problem as Pyongyang’s main benefactor or be forced to see its trade with the United States suffer.
It was the latest in a series of remarks that Trump has been making since the North’s nuclear test last week to underscore his point that China has “total control” over Pyongyang, and the U.S. should force Beijing to fix the problem of the North.
“I think North Korea is a disgrace,” he said on “Fox News Sunday.” “I would get China, and I would say, ‘Get in there and straighten it out. You’d better straighten it out.’ And, if you don’t straighten it out, we’re going to have trouble because we have power over China. We have trade power over China.”
Trump also said that while Iran is expected to have nuclear weapons due to what he calls a “stupid agreement” that the U.S. and other world powers concluded with Tehran last year, North Korea already has “very dangerous weapons of some sort.”
In another FOX TV interview, Trump again said that China is the one that should fix the North Korea problem.
“People ask me a number of questions. They were asking me how do you solve North Korea? Well, China should be solving North Korea; they have total power,” Trump said. [Yonhap]
As I posted earlier this week, it is business as usual on the Sino-NK border which is something that Secretary of State John Kerry says has to stop. Despite this the Chinese government is claiming there is no “key” for them to use to stop North Korea’s nuclear program. If the border was shutdown this is a key that would greatly pressure the Kim regime to halt their nuclear program:
China said Friday that it holds no “key” to curbing North Korea’s nuclear ambition, while the United States is urging Beijing to put more pressure on Pyongyang after the North’s fourth nuclear test.
The remarks by Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying were seen as a rare public acknowledgment that China’s influence on its unruly ally North Korea is limited.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during a telephone conservation on Thursday, “There cannot be business as usual” after North Korea claimed it successfully conducted a hydrogen bomb test.
Kerry said he reached the agreement with Wang, after making clear to his Chinese counterpart that the latest nuclear test has proven that Beijing’s approach to the North Korean nuclear issue “has not worked.”
The Wednesday nuclear test by North Korea is viewed as a diplomatic failure by Chinese President Xi Jinping in trying to rein in North Korea.
In response to such a view, Hua said, “I want to emphasize that the origin and frictions of the North Korean nuclear issue do not lie in China. The key of resolving the issue does not lie in China.”
However, Hua repeated that, “China urges the North Korean side to stick to reaffirming its commitment of denuclearization and stop taking actions that make the situation worse.” [Yonhap]
The Kim regime knows that Beijing will not do anything that would undermine the stability of their regime and thus why they continue with their provocation strategy:
Trucks rumbled across the Chinese-North Korean border Thursday in a sign that trade was continuing despite Beijing’s anger over the North’s avowed hydrogen bomb test, which could spark economic retaliation and further estrangement between the once-close communist allies.
There were no obvious signs of disruption in the northeastern city of Dandong that sits on the Yalu River directly across from North Korea’s Sinuiju. The twin cities are the conduit through which much of North Korea’s international trade passes.
China condemned Wednesday’s purported test, which sent tremors across parts of northeastern China near the North Korean border and alarmed residents.
“I think it is a threat and sabotage to China and to the world peace for such a country to own nuclear weapons,” Dandong resident Tian Zhibin said in an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday.
Analysts say Beijing will likely join other members of the U.N. Security Council in imposing tougher economic sanctions on its communist ally.
Beijing could also introduce unilateral measures such as tighter inspections of the trucks that cross the Yalu carrying mostly consumer goods bound for the North. China-North Korean economic projects could be suspended and Chinese companies and banks discouraged from doing business with North Korea. [Associated Press]
