Tag: China

Via a reader tip comes an opinion piece from ROK Drop favorite Andrei Lankov in regards to why China is so vehemently opposed to the deployment of the THAAD battery to South Korea:

However, such a hard blow is unlikely to ever be delivered by China. This is because extreme pressure is more likely to bring about regime collapse than denuclearization, and regime collapse is not what the Chinese leaders want to see (an anarchy in a nuclear state nearby is not their idea of stability and success). And at any rate, the Chinese losses from such a scenario will be greater than the problems created by THAAD deployment. Minor pressure, however, is not going to solve the nuclear problem and hence it will not lead to THAAD re-deployment elsewhere.

In this context, China therefore acts reasonably: it does not increase its pressure on North Korea, but rather penalizes South Korea for THAAD deployment. Obviously, it is being done in expectation that a sufficiently persistent form of pressure will eventually make the South Korean government – well, perhaps, next one – re-consider its position on THAAD.

After all, being a democracy, South Korea is relatively susceptible to outside pressures. China looms large in the South Korean economy, so informal sanctions – which  are very easy to introduce for the Chinese leaders – will have a noticeable impact on the lives of the common South Koreans who, unlike their northern brethren, can vote and who also have many other means to push the government in the direction they (rightly or wrongly) see as conducive to their interests.  [NK News]

I recommend reading the whole thing at the link.  Mr. Lankov is right about what he covers in his analysis.  However, I think he did miss one thing.  In my opinion the Chinese know very well that THAAD is not a risk to their strategic missile deterrent. Instead they see this an opportunity to create a wedge between the US and the ROK.  A weakened US-ROK alliance is in China’s national interest which the reversing of course on THAAD has the potential of creating.

The Chinese government is opposing the UN condemning the recent North Korean missile launch because they also want the UN to condemn the South Koreans for taking measures to protect themselves from these missile launches with the deployment of the THAAD system:

The United Nations Security Council has been unable to condemn the launch of a missile by North Korea that landed near Japan because China wanted the statement to oppose the planned deployment of a US anti-missile defense system in South Korea. North Korea launched a ballistic missile last Wednesday that landed in or near Japanese-controlled waters for the first time, the latest in a series of launches by the isolated country in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions.

The 15-member council held a closed-door meeting on the same day, but has been unable to agree on a US-drafted statement to condemn the launch, which was almost identical to two previous statements issued by the council on North Korea (DPRK). China proposed that the statement also say “all relevant parties shall avoid taking any actions which could provoke each other and escalate tensions, and shall not deploy any new anti-ballistic missile stronghold in Northeast Asia with an excuse of dealing with threats of the DPRK nuclear and missile programs.”  [The Indian Express]

You can read more at the link, mean while the Chinese government has been releasing footage of their own missile defense tests used to protect their country.

If true this is all the more reason why South Koreans should want the THAAD battery if the intent of the Chinese missiles is to target US troops reinforcing the ROK during a crisis:

China is maintaining ballistic missile bases in its northeastern territories, all equipped with missiles capable of reaching U.S. bases in the Pacific including Okinawa, according to a report posted on the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) website.

The bases may explain Beijing’s strident opposition to the deployment of a U.S.-made anti-missile defense system in South Korea, as its presence could hamper China’s missile striking capabilities if conflict broke out on the Korean Peninsula.

The presence of the U.S.-operated Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) system in South Korea could thwart Beijing’s attempt to attack U.S. ships ferrying soldiers to the peninsula with long-range ballistic missiles, analysts say.   [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

https://twitter.com/GlobalAsianista/status/761665517258018816

Remember all the talk about how China was really serious this time with enforcing sanctions against North Korea?  Well the data shows that to not be true:

The latest U.N. Security Council sanctions on North Korea are having little impact on the country’s economy, a U.S. expert said, citing trade data between the North and its biggest economic partner, China.

William Brown, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and non-resident fellow at the Korea Economic Institute in Washington, also said in a recent report that the sanctions do not appear to be affecting the North’s domestic economy.

The latest sanctions, which were adopted on March 2 in response to the North’s fourth nuclear test in January and a long-range rocket launch the following month, have been billed as the harshest-ever sanctions imposed on the communist regime.

The sanctions require mandatory inspection of all cargo going in and out of the North, regardless of whether by land, sea or air, while banning its exports of coal, iron and other mineral resources, a key source of hard currency that accounts for nearly half of the country’s total exports.

“The March 2 U.N. sanctions are having little impact so far on North Korea’s economy although they may be making Pyongyang even more dependent on China. Trade with countries except China seems to be slipping but, because it was so low to begin with, the significance pales in comparison to the large and generally flat pace of China-North Korean trade,” Brown said in the report.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

This will probably be one of a few areas that the Chinese will retaliate against the ROK for the decision to deploy THAAD:

Speculation is rife that China will target K-pop stars in retaliation against Seoul’s decision to install an American-made missile defense system on the Korean peninsula.  K-pop stars could be the unlikely first casualties of Seoul’s decision to deploy a U.S.-made missile defense system on the Korean peninsula, despite vocal opposition from China.

Speculation is rife that China will retaliate by limiting South Korean media and stars from its huge entertainment market.

According to two sources cited by the South China Morning Post, China’s national media regulator informed TV stations in Guangdong Province that TV shows featuring South Korean pop stars would not be granted approval to air “in the near future.”

Meanwhile, shares in South Korean entertainment companies took a dive Tuesday as investors bet that the firms would be hit by impending restrictions from China. SM Entertainment Co., known for such K-pop super-groups as Girls’ Generation, closed down 5.3 percent, according to Bloomberg. YG Entertainment Corp., the company known for producing Psy, fell 8 percent.  [Hollywood Reporter]

You can read more at the link, but the ROK has been through this before with China retaliating against them with trade restrictions such as during the Great Kimchi War of 2005.

Considering Australia’s strong economic ties to the Chinese I will be surprised if they commit to supporting freedom of navigation patrols in the SCS.  These calls to strike Australian ships I believe is just a signal from the Chinese to the Australians to stay out of this dispute in response to the US request for freedom of navigation patrols:

China’s state-run Global Times has published an editorial attacking Australia for supporting the recent international ruling on China’s activities in the South China Sea and called for strikes on any Australian ships which might undertake “freedom-of-navigation” activities in the region.

The editorial said Australia “is not even a ‘paper tiger’, it’s only a ‘paper cat’ at best”. It says that even though “Australia calls itself a principled country… when it needs to please Washington, it demonstrates willingness of doing anything in a show of allegiance”.

As a result, the Global Times says (our emphasis):

China must take revenge and let it know it’s wrong. Australia’s power means nothing compared to the security of China. If Australia steps into the South China Sea waters, it will be an ideal target for China to warn and strike.

Earlier this year, the Commander of the US Seventh Fleet, Vice Admiral Joseph P Aucoin, said it would be in the “best interests” of the region if Australia was to send ships to within 12 miles of the disputed area. Australia has so far not sent any of its ships there.  [Business Insider]

You can read the rest at the link.

Here we go again with another group of North Korean soldiers pillaging a Chinese town.  This is not the first time this has happened and likely won’t be the last:

Five North Korean soldiers who deserted their posts with weapons engaged in a shootout with Chinese authorities on Thursday after armed robberies in Jilin Province, according to diplomatic sources.

The soldiers entered China through Hyesan city in North Korea on July 23 and committed an armed robbery in Changbai Korean Autonomous Prefecture in Jilin Province.

As the robbery spree intensified, the Chinese army and police formed a task force to catch the soldiers and a major shoot out ensued in a town inside the prefecture on Thursday.

Two of the soldiers were arrested but many of the Chinese were injured. Two Chinese police officers were rushed to a nearby hospital in a critical condition.

Chinese authorities have launched a manhunt for the three remaining soldiers.

“Authorities have issued a curfew to local residents until they arrest all the culprits,” a diplomatic source said. [Korea Times]

Fortunately no one has been killed yet by these thugs unlike what happened in 2014 when a rampaging North Korean soldier killed four elderly Chinese citizens.

Considering how China is now angered at the ROK for allowing the THAAD deployment they could retaliate by not allowing this teenage defector to leave the embassy:

A North Korean teenager sought refuge in the South Korean consulate in Hong Kong after attending an international math competition, local newspapers in Hong Kong reported Thursday.

The 18-year-old boy was in Hong Kong to attend the International Mathematical Olympiad at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the newspaper Ming Pao reported. According to the report, the student was one of the six North Korean official delegates of the competition.

According to South China Morning Post, all six members of the North’s team and the two supervisors attended the closing dinner of the competition on July 15.

At some point after that, the report said quoting a diplomatic source, one of the students vanished and later sought refuge at the South Korean diplomatic mission.

The mission asked for strengthened security protection from the Hong Kong government, fearing a possible North Korean retaliation, and armed anti-terrorist troops are now guarding the consulate around the clock.

“The South Korean government requested the Hong Kong government to allow the student’s departure, but no definite answer was given,” a Hong Kong source told the JoongAng Ilbo. “The Chinese Foreign Ministry is apparently reviewing the issue.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but it is going to be very interesting to see how this turns out.

This is actually a pretty good idea which also makes me wonder if it can also help deter North Korean submarine activity as well in the area?:

North Korea on Monday condemned the artificial reef structures being placed in the West Sea by South Korea to control Chinese illegal fishing activities, calling it part of Seoul’s military provocations against Pyongyang’s maritime demarcation line.

In March, the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (MOF) said it will set up a total of eight artificial reef structures in the eastern waters off Baengnyeongdo, Daecheongdo and Socheongdo, all located south of the northern limit line (NLL), to prevent Chinese fishing vessels from intruding into the South Korean waters.

Drawn by the U.S.-led United Nations Command at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, the NLL is the de facto sea border between the two Koreas, although the North has not recognized it as such.

According to the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the West Sea Fleet of the Navy of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) said South Korea’s new artificial structures can only be seen a encroachments on its waters.

“The fish-breeding reef, structure weighing dozens of tons, is being set up in the sensitive waters which witnessed three skirmishes in the past, a fact clearly showing the provocative nature,” KCNA said.

Such provocative acts have revealed Seoul’s “sinister intention” to spark a military conflict in the world’s most dangerous waters, the North’s state-run media outlet claimed.  [Yonhap]