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Retired Japanese General Claims that China Will Take Over Taiwan by 2025 and is Targeting Okinawa

There is no doubt that China has a long-term strategy to absorb Taiwan at some point, but I think a military attack is too risky due to a possible US military response. I don’t see the security environment changing that much by 2025 to make such an attack less risky:

Retired Japan Air Self-Defense Force Lt. Gen. Kunio Orita, seen here with members of the U.S. armed forces in Qatar, says he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045.

 A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045.
The comments by retired Lt. Gen. Kunio Orita, a 35-year veteran of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force and a former commander of the 301st Tactical Fighter Squadron and 6th Air Wing, appeared last month in the English-language Taiwan News.
Orita, who retired in 2009 and is now a guest professor at Toyo Gakuen University in Tokyo, recently told Stars and Stripes he expects Beijing will attempt to expand its sphere of influence by first taking control of Taiwan and then militarizing a key disputed islet in the South China Sea.
Once that’s accomplished, he said, China will set its sights on Japan’s southern island prefecture, which hosts about half of the approximately 54,000 U.S. troops serving in Japan.

Stars & Stripes

You can read much more at the link, but Lt. Gen Orita also claims that the anti-US protest movement on Okinawa is sponsored by Beijing. He even says Beijing is providing funding to Okinawa media outlets. That is a very serious accusation if true and I would hope the Japanese government is vigorously working to find out who these Beijing agents are.

Japan Concerned About Outcome of Trump-Kim II Summit

Apparently the Japanese government is concerned that President Trump will cut a deal to eliminate North Korea’s ICBMs, but leave them with nuclear weapons. This is significant to Japan because North Korea’s shorter range missiles can easily target Japan with nuclear weapons:

U.S. President Donald Trump says Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, seen here with Trump during a Sept. 26, 2018 official visit, has nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize

When U.S. President Donald Trump sits down to talk peace with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un later this month, one of America’s closest allies — Japan — will be looking on with apprehension.
Like the first time Trump met Kim in June, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has found himself on the outside peering in before their second summit set for Feb. 27-28 in Hanoi. The meeting brings both the promise of a less-dangerous North Korea and the potential peril of a weak deal that leaves Japan exposed to Kim’s weapons of mass destruction and does nothing to help ease Tokyo’s own hostility with Pyongyang.
Mitoji Yabunaka, who served as Japan’s envoy to six-party talks with North Korea more than a decade ago, said the country feared “a half-baked, deceptive agreement which leads to the Trump administration taking a soft line on North Korea by removing economic sanctions” without serious progress on disarmament. That would be “the nightmare scenario,” Yabunaka said.
While Japan and the U.S. — which guarantees the country’s security under a 1960 treaty — both want North Korea to give up its weapons, their interests could diverge as talks progress. Kim’s short- to medium-range rockets pose the most immediate danger to Japan, not the intercontinental ballistic missiles that now threaten the American homeland.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link, but if such a deal is reached with the Kim regime I suspect that the Trump administration would make certain security guarantees towards Japan that North Korea would face an overwhelming counterattack if they ever targeted Japan with their missiles.

I guess we will see what deal is struck in about a week.

Tweet of the Day: Kim Jong-un Purging the Wealthy Elite?

Picture of the Day: Snow Falls on Seoul

Snowfall in Seoul
Snowfall in SeoulSnow falls on Deoksu Palace in central Seoul on Feb. 19, 2019, the day of “Usu,” which marks the melting of ice as one of 24 seasonal divisions of the lunar calendar. (Yonhap)

Kim Jong-un Reportedly Will Take His Train Through China to Summit in Vietnam

It looks like Kim Jong-un is using the Vietnam summit as a mini-vacation by taking a train trip through China:

North Korea leader Kim Jong-un is expected to travel to Vietnam by train for his second summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, slated for next week, a news report said Wednesday.
Kim is expected to leave Pyongyang later this week for his planned arrival in the Southeast Asian nation on Monday, as it could take him at least two and a half days to travel through China, Reuters reported, citing sources with direct knowledge of security and logistics planning.
Trump and Kim are set to hold their second summit from Feb. 27-28. 
“Kim’s train will stop at the Vietnamese border station of Dong Dang, where he will disembark and drive 170 kilometers to Hanoi by car,” the report said.

Yonhap

South Korea Announces Crackdown on Illegal Immigrants

It will be interesting to see how vigorously this crackdown is enforced:

Police and the justice ministry have launched a rare joint crackdown on undocumented foreign workers and their Korean employers. 

The crackdown will last for one month during which officials will scrutinize workplaces known for having many illegal foreign workers. Primary targets include construction sites, massage parlors, bars and other night entertainment facilities. 

Illegal foreign workers will be subject to deportation and banned from entering Korea for 10 years. Employers caught hiring them will be prosecuted. 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

Secretary of State Pompeo Says U.S. May Ease North Korean Sanctions

It will be interesting to see what sanctions relief the Trump administration is willing to give and what they get in return for the Trump-Kim II Summit:

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo mentioned easing sanctions while talking about North Korea and the US’ denuclearization negotiations. In an interview with the press on Feb. 13, Pompeo said that “it’s our full intention of getting a good outcome in exchange for relieving those sanctions. I’m very hopeful that we can do that.” 

Pompeo publicly indicated a willingness to relieve sanctions just a week or two before the second North Korea-US summit raises expectations about the prospects of the two countries’ negotiations.

The US’ previous position had been that sanctions will not be eased or lifted until North Korea’s complete denuclearization. But leading up to the second summit, the North has called for the easing of sanctions, which it says are incompatible with improving bilateral relations. Pompeo’s remarks suggest that the US has come to terms with the fact that North Korea cannot be persuaded to take steps toward denuclearization without a little quid pro quo in the form of easing sanctions. 

Hankyoreh

You can read more at the link, but the Kim regime and the Moon administration would love nothing more than re-opening the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the joint tourism projects on the East Coast. Both are large cash cows for the Kim regime that have little impact on North Korean society.

Tweet of the Day: Ideologically Problematic?

Picture of the Day: British Korean War Veteran Buried in Busan

British burial in S. Korea
British burial in S. KoreaThe bereaved family members of William Speakman, a British hero of the 1950-53 Korean War, pay tribute during his burial ceremony at the U.N. Memorial Cemetery in the southeastern South Korean port city of Busan on Feb. 19, 2019. (Yonhap)

North Korea Slows Down Military Cooperation with South Korea

It looks like the North Korean military is now dragging their feet in regards to cooperation with the ROK military:

 South and North Korea appear to have struggled to move forward their 2018 military accord aimed at reducing tensions and building trust amid a lack of progress in denuclearization and a focus on a second summit between Washington and Pyongyang, observers said Tuesday.
Since the beginning of this year, the two Koreas have held few talks over the implementation of the accord, in stark contrast to fast progress in the first three months after their defense chiefs signed it in September.
Pyongyang has recently been preoccupied with preparations for the second summit between leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump, scheduled to take place on Feb. 27-28 in Hanoi, Vietnam.
If the summit produces tangible results, it could help facilitate the implementation of the military agreement and other peace-building measures on the peninsula.
“This year, inter-Korean consultations have rarely been held, though there have been exchanges of documents (about the accord),” a government source said on condition of anonymity.

Yonhap

It appears the North Korean military did what they had to do to create the perception of progress. They are likely not going to do much more until they get what they want such as a peace treaty and sanctions dropped.