We have seen how Chinese fishermen have been challenging South Korean sovereignty well for more perspective, the Indonesians are having the same problem:
Indonesian President Joko Widodo on Wednesday reaffirmed his country’s sovereignty during a visit to a group of islands at the edge of the South China Sea that China claims as its traditional fishing area.
Widodo, accompanied by top military officials, toured Natuna Islands on a naval ship in a move designed to send a message to Beijing.
“Natuna is part of Indonesia’s territory, there is no question, no doubt,” Widodo said in a speech after the trip. “There is no bargaining for our sovereignty.”
He then presided over a meeting with local administration officials and fishermen, discussing issues including development of the remote islands, about 1,100 kilometers (680 miles) north of the capital, Jakarta.
His visit came a week after China’s foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang in a news briefing in Beijing insisted that Chinese fishermen are free to conduct activities in their traditional fishing ground, which partly overlaps with Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone.
“Whether the Indonesian side accepts it or not, nothing will change the objective fact that China has rights and interests over the relevant waters,” Shuang said.
Shuang’s statement drew a nationwide indignation in Indonesia and prompted the military to beef up its forces at the islands. Although China has been making such claims for years, recently dozens of Chinese fishing boats, escorted by its coast guard vessels, were reportedly making more aggressive moves in the area and ignoring Indonesia’s warnings to leave.
Associated Press
You can read more at the link.
There is a lot of analysis going on right now in regards to what the Iranian missile strike will lead to:
Iran responded to the United States’ killing of its top military official, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, by firing over a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S. military facilities in Iraq Tuesday night.
The move is likely to stoke fear of a war between the U.S. and Iran, but retired Col. Stephen Ganyard, a former fighter pilot and ABC News military analyst, said that what happens next will really depend on the damage incurred by the missiles, which were fired at the Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq and the Ain Al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq.
“It depends on what they hit. If they hit nothing, then the situation may de-escalate. If they hit something substantial and if they hurt Americans, then they can expect this will lead to a significant U.S. retaliation,” said Ganyard.
ABC News
It is being reported that the missile strike did not hurt any Americans which leads me to conclude that the attack was carefully planned to try and not hurt anyone. If the Iranians gave a lot of indications and warnings of an impending attack this would give the people at each location time to shelter in hardened structures. Additionally if the strikes hit on the perimeter of the bases that would reduce the risk of casualties as well.
I believe the Iranians calculated that if they killed any Americans President Trump would have to respond forcefully. Now with little damage to show for the missile attack it gives the U.S. President reason to not respond forcibly while allowing the Iranians to save face. Ironically this missile attack is likely a deescalation attempt by the Iranians.
However, what I am most interested in is what will the North Koreans learn from this missile attack? I have always believed that if a pre-emptive strike was taken against North Korea’s nuclear or missile related facilities the Kim regime would respond with ballistic missile strikes against U.S. military bases in South Korea. If President Trump does not respond strongly to the Iranian missile attack, this could signal to the Kim regime that such a strategy could be feasible as long as Americans are not killed.
That would be a difficult feat to pull off considering how densely populated South Korea is around U.S. military bases compared to the two bases in Iraq. However, if a U.S. airstrike killed North Korean soldiers or civilians they could justify the killing of U.S. military servicemembers in such a retaliatory strike.
Unlike the two bases in Iraq, U.S. military bases in South Korea do have missile defense battery’s to protect them. This will help mitigate any attack, but no missile defense is 100% effective if North Korea is committed to massing fires on one location.
As far ROK nationals killed or injured I think the Kim regime cares less about because they don’t feel the Blue House would push for forceful retaliation and they could just blame the death of the ROK nationals on the U.S. for conducting the pre-emptive strike. The Korean left would assuredly promote this rationale and likely be protesting the U.S. after any such attack.
So whatever response comes from the Trump administration after the Iranian missile attack, North Korea will assuredly be closely watching to inform any future response plans they may have.
1969 began as a particularly deadly year for U.S. troops in South Korea. In January an EC-121 intelligence gathering plane was shot down over international airspace by a North Korean MIG jet that killed 31 American servicemembers. The deadly attack was just one of many from this time period has been called “DMZ War“. North Korea continued its DMZ War when in on October 18, 1969 it ambushed a U.S. Army truck traveling near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) killing 4 U.S. Soldiers.
The four U.S. Soldiers from the 7th Infantry Division were traveling in a truck marked with a white flag and labeled with a sign that said “DMZ Police” when they were ambushed by a North Korean patrol with rifle fire and grenades. The North Koreans then went up to the truck and shot each soldier in the head at close range to ensure they were dead. The ambush killed Staff Sergeant James R. Grissinger, Specialist Charles E. Taylor, Specialist Jack L. Morris, and Private First Class William E. Grimes.
Following the attack U.S. and ROK troops patrolled the area in an attempt to locate the intruders. Four North Korean commandoes were spotted and engaged by a U.S. patrol. However, the commandoes successfully escaped back across the DMZ into North Korea with no casualties. Three days later the four soldiers were remembered during a ceremony prior to their honor flight back home.
Few know or remember this period of increased North Korean attacks that killed and wounded hundreds of U.S. soldiers who served on the DMZ. The U.S. and ROK military’s success in the DMZ War had important strategic consequences that unfortunately the four 7th Infantry Division soldiers killed in the truck ambush would never live to see.
For more DMZ Flashpoints articles please click the below link:
Submarine launched ballistic missiles would be a strategic game changer for North Korea, but fortunately they have a lot more work to do before they can effectively field this technology:
Recent satellite imagery revealed a hidden submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles at North Korea’s Sinpo shipyard, a U.S. monitoring website said, amid concerns that Pyongyang could test a submarine-launched ballistic missile as a threatened “new strategic weapon.”
Satellite imagery taken Jan. 1 “revealed the presence of the North Korean SINPO-class experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA) and its submersible test stand barge positioned beneath a recently constructed, dockside awning designed to conceal and environmentally protect these vessels,” the website 38 North said.
The submarine had been difficult to detect since the North set up the awning in an apparent effort to protect it from prying eyes, but Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery technology was used to determine what’s under the shelter, 38 North said.
Yonhap
You can read more at the link.
Something to remember is that a Patriot battery is not going to protect Seoul against North Korea’s artillery which is the real defense problem for the nation’s capitol:
A Patriot surface-to-air missile battery has recently been installed on Mount Bukak near Cheong Wa Dae in central Seoul, according to political sources, Tuesday. The battery system reportedly consists of a launcher for PAC-2 (Patriot advanced capability-2) missiles and another one for PAC-3 missiles.
Korea Times
The deployment of the unit in Seoul is aimed at strengthening the defense of the capital. The plan was devised after South Korea allowed the United States to deploy a terminal high-altitude area defense (THAAD) battery in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province in 2017. While the THAAD system has strengthened the defense of the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, concerns have been that defense of the capital area was relatively weak.
You can read more at the link.
What Generation Z wants doesn’t matter because the Korean left currently in power in South Korea is pushing the country towards a confederation with North Korea:
South Koreans born after 1995 are less supportive of unification and feel less affinity for North Koreans despite a common ethnic identity, according to a recent survey.
Korea Times
The poll from newspaper Hankook Ilbo and Hankook Research taken in early December interviewed a pool of 500 Generation Z respondents and compared their answers to those of 500 South Korean members of Generation X, or people born after 1968 and before 1980.
The Hankook Ilbo reported Friday Gen Z respondents were relatively apathetic about the notion of a unitary Korean people that binds Koreans of North and South.
When asked about their sense of “belonging” to transnational Koreans as an ethnic group, fewer Gen Z respondents responded positively than their Gen X counterparts, or about 13 percentage points lower, according to the report. Lack of identification with North Koreans was also greater among Gen Z respondents; only about 12 percent of them said they view North Korea in a positive light.
You can read more at the link.
