I mostly agree with Victor Cha’s assessment, however I think they will conduct short-range missile firings during the Key Resolve exercise in March like they have historically done in the past. Larger provocations such as an ICBM or nuclear test I think will be done post-election in order to avoid helping elect a ROK conservative. Plus by the end of the ROK election period, North Korea will have a better idea of what the Trump administration’s policy toward North Korea will be:
Victor Cha
North Korea is exercising restraint from nuclear and missile tests to avoid galvanizing conservatives in South Korea ahead of a presidential election, and is certain to resume provocations once the leadership crisis in the South is resolved, a top U.S. expert on Korea said Tuesday.
The assessment from Victor Cha, a Georgetown University professor and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, breaks with more common perceptions that Pyongyang is holding off on action until the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump puts together its North Korea policy.
“Pyongyang carried out two (failed) medium-range ballistic missiles tests prior to President Trump’s election on October 15 and 20, 2016. The only reason they have not followed the election with an action, we believe, is because of the domestic political crisis in South Korea,” Cha said during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing, referring to the North’s failed Musudan missile launches.
“That is, President Park Geun-hye’s political downfall and the potential for a progressive, pro-DPRK government coming to power in the South has complicated Pyongyang’s calculations as they do not want to take actions that might create ballast for the conservatives,” he said. “However, once this crisis of leadership in the South is resolved (or even before then), ballistic missile and nuclear tests are sure to follow.” [Yonhap]
Yonhap is reporting that the North may have two ICBMs ready to launch in the coming days or weeks:
North Korea has probably built two missiles presumed to be intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and placed them on mobile launchers for test-firing in the near future, military officials said Thursday.
The two missiles are estimated to not exceed 15 meters in length, making them shorter than the North’s existing ICBMs, the 19-20 meter-long KN-08 and the 17-18 meter-long KN-14, the officials familiar with the matter told Yonhap News Agency.
The North appears to have intentionally leaked the new missiles to send a “strategic message” to the incoming government of Donald Trump who takes office on Friday, they said.
The officials didn’t provide the exact date for when the missiles were picked up by intelligence, although it is estimated that the U.S. detected them on Monday when the U.S. Navy hurriedly moved its sea-based X-band radar system to the western part of the Pacific Ocean from seas off Hawaii.
Experts say the North is likely to fire off a new ballistic missile that flies some 2,500 kilometers and claim that it has succeeded in launching an ICBM. An ICBM usually has a range exceeding 5,500 kilometers.
“It will take at least two to three years for Pyongyang to master ICBM capabilities and five more years before they can be deployed operationally,” said Kim Dong-yeob, a professor at Kyungnam University’s North Korean studies school.
The North is widely expected to test-fire a missile when the Trump government outlines its policies toward the communist state or around the time of the annual Seoul-Washington joint military drill kickoff in March. [Yonhap]
Yonhap has a good interview published with an aerospace engineer that outlines what North Korea’s testing of the ICBM capability would likely look like:
John Schilling, an aerospace engineer with expertise in the North’s missile programs, said that the North’s ICBM test could involve a missile variant of the space launch vehicle Unha or the road-mobile KN-08 missile or its upgraded version KN-14.
A test of the Unha rocket fitted with a reentry vehicle large enough for a nuclear warhead would likely work, but it would put “an end to any pretense or hope of a peaceful space program,” the expert said. (……..)
Schilling also noted the first American ICBM, the SM-65 Atlas, failed 26 seconds into its maiden flight and eight tests were conducted over the course of a year, with only two fully successful. The first all-up test of the competing SM-68 Titan was even shorter, exploding on the launch pad, he said.
“We should expect North Korean ICBMs to follow a similar path — a series of early failures leading to an operational capability even with a spotty testing record,” the expert said.
The North is unlikely to conduct an ICBM test as frequently as it did with the intermediate-range Musudan missile that was tested eight times between April and October last year, he said.
“Pyongyang can afford to keep up that pace in a full-scale ICBM development program. Its aerospace industry hasn’t demonstrated the production capacity needed to test an ICBM every month,” he said. ” One test every three to six months would be more realistic, at least in the long run, so this is not a process that will be completed in 2017.”
Should the North decide to test the KN-08 or KN-14, it is expected to use existing launch sites, rather than a mobile launcher, in order to reduce chances of failure and to learn as much as possible from the failures, he said. [Yonhap]
Considering how President-Elect Trump tweeted that he would stop a North Korean rocket launch, I would be totally surprised if the Kim regime does not launch something in the near term just to call his bluff. The challenge for the North Koreans will be ensuring that the missile doesn’t blow up after launch which is what their track record for long range missiles has been lately:
North Korea on Sunday said it may launch its long-range missile at any time and anywhere its leaders choose, possibly hinting at its mobile capabilities while also asserting its right to do so.
In an interview carried by the North’s official Korean Central Television, a spokesman from the North’s foreign ministry also claimed his country has already developed standardized nuclear warheads.
“The United States continues to denounce our just preparations to launch rockets as a provocation and talk about sanctions as if a thief wields a stick,” the unidentified spokesman said.
In his New Year speech, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said his country was in the final stage of preparing to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). [Yonhap]
That is what Kim Jong-un is thinking after having 7 of his past 8 Musudan missile launches end in failure:
North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong-un has ordered a full-blown investigation into the recent missile launch failures, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported, citing a North Korean defectors’ group. The test firing of two intermediate-range ballistic missiles, or Musudan, ended in failure about two weeks ago.
The investigation will reportedly include all those who were involved in the making of the missiles amid suspicion of a sabotage by the US and South Korea. (………….)
“Officials and workers who engaged in the launches of the missiles are now banned from travelling and their mobiles phones are confiscated to check their conversation records,” he added.
The North Korean leader believes spies from the US and South Korea were responsible for the Musudan missile failures, he said. North Korean authorities believe the spies could have meddled with the missile parts that were imported from foreign countries, leading to the launch failure, [IBT via reader tip]
You can read more at the link, but I guess we will see if they try and scapegoat someone for these missile launch failures and claim they were working for the US.
This just goes to show that all the aid money and tourism dollars that people give to North Korea helps provide the necessary funding to continue these programs:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is believed to have spent at least 110 billion won ($97 million) firing a total of 31 ballistic missiles over the past five years, according to data from the Ministry of National Defense, Wednesday.
Kim has fired 16 Scud short-range ballistic missiles, six Rodong medium-range ballistic missiles, six Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and three submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) since he inherited the totalitarian state from his father Kim Jong-il in late 2011, the data showed.
The number of missiles the young leader has launched over the last five years nearly doubled compared to the 16 fired during his father’s 18-year rule.
Ministry and military observers believe that Kim has apparently spent at least 110 billion won on the launches, based on the estimated prices of each missile.
The price of a Scud or a Rodong is estimated at about 1 billion won to 2 billion won each, while a Musudan is estimated to cost about 3 billion won to 6 billion won. The price of an SLBM, which is still under development, is estimated at about 5 billion won to 10 billion won.
The ministry said the total expenses for the missile launches would have exceeded 110 billion won if labor costs had been added.
If the two nuclear tests conducted under the younger Kim’s leadership are taken into consideration, the estimated expenses would be in the hundreds of billions of won, the ministry added. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but like I have always said; anyone that is pro-engagement with North Korea also must support Kim Jong-un’s nuclear and missile programs because the two are not exclusive of each other.
This is the first time I have seen the North Koreans try and spread propaganda messages via a river:
In this photo provided by the South Korean military on July, 27, 2016, vinyl bags carrying North Korean leaflets are displayed on a table. (Yonhap)
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said Wednesday they found strongly worded North Korean leaflets in the Han River, the first distribution of such propaganda materials via a waterway.
On July 22, the Korean military collected scores of tightly air-filled vinyl bags carrying North Korean leaflets which contained threats of the North’s possible attacks on the South using the intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missile, a spokesman for Seoul’s JCS said in a press briefing.
“North Korea intentionally floated the leaflets toward the mouth of the Han River and were picked up by guard troops near Gimpo,” the spokesman said, citing an analysis by relevant government officials. The river flows through Seoul, South Korea’s capital city, although sources said it is not clear where the leaflets originated from. [Yonhap]
This would be an interesting to see how the US would respond to a provocation from North Korea if they did in fact ever shoot down or even attempt to shoot down a US satellite:
North Korea’s main propaganda outlet claimed Wednesday that the recent midair explosion of a ballistic missile was intentional, calling it a test attack on enemy satellites.
North Korea’s Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile was detected to have burst into pieces midair after flying some 150 km after its launch on June 22.
North Korea fired off another missile hours later, which soared to an altitude exceeding 1,000 km and flew some 400 km before landing in the East Sea.
The first missile launch seemed to have ended in failure.
Still, North Korea’s main propaganda website, Uriminzokkiri, claimed Wednesday that the midair explosion of the first missile was carried out by a control device installed in the missile and was not an accident.
The website also claimed that North Korea could render U.S. spy satellites lumps of scrap metal if Pyongyang detonates an electromagnetic pulse bomb at a high attitude after delivering it via one of its missiles. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but if they ever did detonate an EMP in the air it would render far more than US satellites ineffective and likely cause a global movement for regime change in North Korea as an aftermath. That is why I think if they do an EMP capability that it would only be a weapon of last resort.
As we have seen with other North Korean missiles the more they test, the better they get at mastering the technology:
North Korea fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) off its east coast on Saturday, but the missile failed in its initial flight stage, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.
The missile was fired from waters southeast of the coastal port city of Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province, at around 11:30 a.m., according to the military.
“The SLBM was ejected from the submarine normally, but (we) estimate the initial flight was unsuccessful,” the JCS said in a brief press release.
“Our military strongly denounces such provocative acts by North Korea,” the JCS noted.
North Korea’s ballistic missile launches are direct violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions, including its Musudan missile launches on June 22 and the latest launch, the military said.
Military sources said the latest SLBM appears to have exploded at an altitude of some 10 kilometers after being fired from a submerged 2,000-ton Sinpo-class submarine.
The missile flew only a few kilometers before the presumed explosion, they said.
South Korea’s military said that North Korea has achieved progress in the initial undersea ejection stage of its SLBM technology.
The North is probably in the flight test stage of its SLBM before moving onto the final test phase that will require the missile to hit targets, the sources said.
The North may be ready to deploy its SLBMs for service in about three years, according to the military. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but out of all of North Korea’s missiles this is the most dangerous and a game changer because it can defeat missile defenses. That is because submarines can fire without notice from any direction which prevents missile defense units from knowing in which direction to point their radars towards.
Considering all their recent missile test activity conducting increased reconnaissance makes sense:
The United States’ forces stationed in South Korea have expanded their aerial reconnaissance along the inter-Korean border following North Korea’s recent launch of Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM), official sources said Monday.
On June 22, North Korea fired two Musudan missiles from its eastern coastal city of Wonsan. The first missile reportedly blew up shortly after launch, but the second one soared to an altitude of some 1,400 kilometers before flying 400 km and hitting the East Sea. Pyongyang has declared the second launch a success, and with a range of 3,000 to 4,000 km, the IRBM could reach as far as the U.S. territory of Guam.
Since the latest launch, the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) had been sending two U-2S ultra-high altitude reconnaissance aircraft to conduct daily surveillance missions along the inter-Korean military demarcation line, USFK officials said.
Before the launch, only one U-2S was sent into the air to conduct reconnaissance.
The reconnaissance aircraft, nicknamed Dragon Lady, monitors, videotapes and sometimes wiretaps North Korea’s military activities from an altitude of some 20 km on a flight mission that could last up to eight hours. The U-2S can see 60-70 km inside North Korea while still flying outside the country’s airspace. [Yonhap]
