This photo carried by the North’s ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun on June 29, 2016, shows top leader Kim Jong-un posing with the people who contributed to the June 22 missile launch that the country claims was successful. Experts say flight analysis of the intermediate-range ballistic missile Hwasong-10, known as Musudan in the outside world, suggests advancement in the North’s missile technology. (Yonhap)
The Patriot PAC-3 is designed to shootdown short range ballistic missiles not an intermediate range missile which the category the Musudan falls under. That is what the THAAD system is for:
A medium-range ballistic missile launched Wednesday by North Korea flew at an average speed of Mach 11.3, or 11.3 times faster than the speed of sound, according to an analysis of a timeline seen on a monitor at the launch site.
The hypersonic speed of Mach 11.3 has sharply raised concerns about the capabilities of the Patriotic Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile defense system that the South Korean military has purchased to upgrade its existing PAC-2 missile defense system. The PAC-3 flies at Mach 3.5 to 5 and intercepts incoming missiles at altitudes of up to 40 kilometers (25 miles). [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but a professor at the Korea National Defense University explains in the article that THAAD can shoot down the Musudan. This is all the more reason why both Japan and the ROK should look at either purchasing their own THAAD system or deploying one into theater from the US.
https://twitter.com/pearswick/status/745903052712976384
North Korea’s top leader Kim Jong-un (seated) and military officials are elated after watching what the country claimed as a successful launch of its ballistic missile Hwasong-10 in this photo released by the North’s ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun on June 23, 2016. The North claimed success in the June 22 launch of the missile, known as the intermediate-range Musudan in the outside world, saying it flew the targeted 400 km and re-entered the atmosphere after soaring to an altitude of 1,413.6 km. If true, it would mark significant progress in the North’s missile technology. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
North Korea as expected fired off two more Musudan missiles. The first one was considered a failure after it blew up shortly after launch. However, the second launch analysts have not determined if it was successful or not:
North Korea launched what appeared to be two Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) from its east coast early Wednesday morning, with the first test-firing assumed to have been unsuccessful, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
At around 5:58 a.m., North Korea fired off what is presumed to be a Musudan missile from near Wonsan along the east coast, but it seems to have ended in failure, the JCS said, without further details
About two hours later at 8:05 a.m., the North launched another missile presumed to be the same type of IRBM from the same area, the JCS noted.
Whether the second missile’s launch was successful was not immediately known. All previous launches of the missile ended in failure, dealing a blow to the credibility of North Korea’s missile program.
On April 15, North Korea first test-fired the Musudan missile as the country kickstarted its ballistic missile tests and development following North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s much-published orders to accelerate the country’s nuclear and missile sophistication the previous month. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but the Joong Ang Ilbo is reporting the first one traveled 150 kilometers before exploding and the second one traveled 400 kilometers:
North Korea launched back-to-back Musudan missiles Wednesday, one of which flew 400 kilometers (250 miles), South Korean military officials said.
While 400 kilometers fell far short of the Musudan’s 3,500-kilometer capability, which puts U.S. military bases in the Pacific within range, South Korea was alarmed at the technological progress shown.
Pyongyang carried out its fifth and sixth intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) tests at 5:58 a.m. and 8:05 a.m. Wednesday from the eastern coast city of Wonsan in Kangwon Province, the Joint Chiefs of Staff reported.
“The first one disappeared after it was detected by radar while the second one flew about 400 kilometers,” said a Joint Chiefs of Staff official who asked not to be named. (……..)
The South Korean military believes the first missile exploded in midair after flying about 150 kilometers. The second missile fired two hours later appeared to have exploded or crashed into the sea after flying 400 kilometers.
The exact causes of the failures are still being determined by Seoul and Washington.
It is possible that North Korea intended its sixth Musudan missile to fall after flying 400 kilometers to prevent it from going over Japan, which would have prompted the country to respond militarily. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but I doubt North Korea would try and fly a Musudan over Japan without being very confident that the missile would work. They have fired over Japan before, but never with a missile under development like the Musudan is. I don’t think Kim Jong-un would want to deal with a potential retaliatory military response if a failed missile landed in Japan. It is pretty clear though that Kim Jong-un is committed to testing the Musudan until his scientists perfect the technology. These latest missile tests seem to indicate they are getting closer to that goal.
It appears the North Koreans are determined to keep testing the Musudan until they get it to work:
North Korea is said to have deployed an intermediate-range missile to Wonsan, Gangwon Province on Tuesday.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff said that it is closely monitoring the North for possible missile launches.
A military official said that such preparation follows four failed test-firings of Musudan intermediate-range missiles in April and May.
The military is said to believe that the North will launch a Musudan missile as early as Tuesday or Wednesday. [KBS World Radio]
You can read more at the link, but four of these Musudans have exploded shortly after launch. If they keep executing these tests the North Koreans will probably through trial and error eventually get it to work. The significance of them getting this missile to work is that they can then range US military bases on Okinawa and Guam with the Musudan.
This most recent failure officially makes North Korea O for 4 for their road mobile Musudan Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) test launches:
North Korea apparently failed with an attempted missile launch Tuesday, the latest in a series of setbacks for a ballistic weapons programme that aspires to threaten the US mainland.
South Korea’s defence ministry detected the dawn launch effort, which Japan condemned as an unacceptable and “provocative” act.
The ministry declined to speculate on the missile type, but military sources cited by local media said it was a powerful, medium-range “Musudan” that has already undergone three failed launches this year.
UN resolutions ban North Korea from any use of ballistic missile technology, although it regularly fires short-range missiles into the sea off its east coast.
Tuesday’s effort came with tensions still running high on the divided Korean peninsula following the North’s fourth nuclear test in January and long-range rocket launch a month later.
“We believe that it was a failure,” said Jeon Ha-Gyu, spokesman for the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.
“As to why and how it failed, we are in the process of analysing that,” Jeon told a press briefing. [AFP]
You can read more at the link, but the AFP article did not state what happened with the launch. The South Korean media on the other hand is reporting that the missile once again blew up on the launch pad:
Anchor: North Korea has again sought to fire a ballistic missile but the launch ended in failure. Sources have suggested that the missile exploded at a mobile launch pad immediately after the order for the launch was given. As it marked the fourth failed attempt in a row to launch the ballistic missile, the South Korean military is suspecting an engine defect.
Our Kim Bum-soo reports.Report: North Korea has test-fired another ballistic missile but the launch ended in failure.
Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff(JCS) said that the North Korean military fired a projectile off its east coast near the Wonsan region at around 5:20 a.m on Tuesday.
JCS officials said that the launch was unsuccessful. Other sources suggested the possibility that the missile exploded on its mobile launcher immediately after a fire button was pressed. [KBS World Radio]
You can read more at the link, but the South Korean military believes their is a structural defect with the Russian BM-25 engine they modified for their Musudans. Also according to the article it is believed that North Korea has 50 Musdudan missiles in their inventory. At this rate they are going to blow them all up testing them.
What is even more significant about these failures is that their road mobile KN-08 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) could also be considered to be of low capability since it has never been tested. The KN-08 is North Korea’s main weapon they use to threaten the United States with nuclear destruction. If they cannot get their road mobile Musudan IRBM technology to work what are the chances that their road mobile ICBM works to threaten the US with?
After failing spectacularly at three prior Musudan missile launches the North Koreans are apparently going to try and fire a fourth one:
Japan put its military on alert on Monday for a possible North Korean ballistic missile firing, while South Korea also said it had detected evidence of launch preparations, officials from Japan and South Korea said.
Tension in the region has been high since North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test in January and followed that with a satellite launch and test launches of various missiles.
Japan ordered naval destroyers and anti-ballistic missile Patriot batteries to be ready to shoot down any projectile heading for Japan, Japan’s NHK state broadcaster said.
A Japanese official, who declined to be identified as he is not authorized to speak to the media, confirmed the order. A spokesmen for Japan’s defense ministry declined to comment.
A Patriot missile battery on the grounds of Japan’s Ministry of Defense had its missile tubes elevated to a firing position.
The South Korean defense official declined to comment on what type of missile might be launched but South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency said officials believe it would be an intermediate-range Musudan missile. [Reuters]
You can read more at the link, but what is significant about this is that the Musudan is the missile that the North Koreans have developed to specifically target the US territory of Guam and threaten US forces there with a nuclear strike. As it is now Kim Jong-un might just be happy if his Musudan gets up in the air much less reaching Guam.
I would not want to be part of the North Korean engineer team responsible for the production of the Musudan right now. It is pretty embarrassing for the Kim regime that three of these Musudans have now failed right after launch:
North Korea fired off a second Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) after it failed in its first attempt on Thursday, but this latest launch also seems to have ended in failure, South Korea’s military said.
“North Korea fired off what appears to be another Musudan missile at about 7:26 p.m. in Wonsan, Kangwon Province, but this also ended in failure,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
Earlier in the day, the North launched the same type of missile from the vicinity of Wonsan but it is known to have crashed a few seconds later.
The second attempt marks the third time that Pyongyang test fired its intermediate-range ballistic missile in less than two weeks. The first time it tested the missile was on April 15, but that launch ended in what experts called a catastrophic failure. [Yonhap]
It appears that whatever issues the North Koreans had with their first Musudan launch they have not been able to identify because the missile has reportedly once again blown up shortly after launch. What is significant about this is that the Musudan is the missile that the North Koreans have developed to specifically target the US territory of Guam and threaten US forces there with a nuclear strike. As it is now Kim Jong-un might just be happy if his Musudan gets up in the air much less reaching Guam. These failed tests also calls into question their other road mobile missile technology such as the KN-08 which they claim can target the US mainland with nuclear weapons:
North Korea fired off what appeared to be its Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) early Thursday, but the launch seems to have ended in failure, a military official said.
The missile appears to be the same model that North Korea tried to launch on April 15, according to the insider.
“The missile, presumed to be a Musudan, was fired around 6:40 a.m. from the vicinity of Wonsan, but it appears to have crashed a few seconds later,” the official said.
“It is highly likely that the launch failed. With that in mind, South Korea and the United States are conducting a detailed assessment,” he said.
Others said the missile seems to have plunged into the coastal area, and the failed launch was caught by a U.S. surveillance satellite. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link.
