Even though the bilateral military exercise has been scaled down I suspect North Korea will still complain about it when it is executed:
South Korea on Sunday formally announced it will kick off combined military exercises with the United States on Tuesday, with drills to be scaled down this year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
In a statement, Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said the allies will conduct computerized combined command post training from Aug. 18 to 28, with “all relevant conditions, such as the Covid-19 situation, comprehensively considered.”
The adjustments made to the drills, which the JCS said would be focused on maintaining the allies’ combined defense posture, signaled a major setback to South Korea’s timetable to retrieve wartime Operational Control (Opcon) of its forces.
Seoul had strongly pushed for the summertime exercises in spite of the ongoing pandemic in order to conduct an assessment of South Korea’s full operational capability (FOC) — a necessary step in the Opcon transfer process which Seoul had envisioned to complete by the end of President Moon Jae-in’s term in 2022.
But this month’s drills would only “partly” feature a rehearsal for how the allied command structure would operate with a South Korean general in command, the JCS said, hinting that the FOC assessment will not be completed. (……)
Military sources said the effective postponement of the FOC assessment this month was owed to U.S. reluctance due to the coronavirus, which has prevented U.S. troops stationed in Hawaii, Guam and Japan from joining the drills.
The long debated issue of where to officially put the Combined Forces Command has apparently been settled:
Most amenities for U.S. soldiers and family members in Yongsan Garrison in Seoul will be shut down as of Oct. 1, as an ongoing relocation is being carried out. [YONHAP]
Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) will be relocated from the Yongsan Garrison in Seoul to Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek by 2021, defense officials announced Sunday.
The CFC, Korea’s Ministry of National Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff made the announcement jointly on Sunday, adding that a timeline will be finalized in the U.S.-Korea Security Consultative Meeting coming at the end of October or early November.
The move had been forewarned by Washington and Seoul in June, but Sunday was the first time an exact time for the move was announced.
The move of the CFC will be in time for the expected transfer of wartime operational control (Opcon) over Korea’s military forces from the United States to Korea by 2022.
You can read more at the link, but the ROK was trying to keep the CFC in Seoul and force the Americans to commute every week for meetings. USFK wanted the CFC based out of Camp Humphreys which is what they ended up getting.
According to the article the hand over of operational control is still planned for 2022. 2022 just happens to be of the ROK presidential election so you know that who ever President Moon selects to run for President will take credit for the hand over.
The Blue House needs to have this exercise happen because it is part of the glide path for the ROK to take back operational control (OPCON) from the U.S. Taking back OPCON has long been a left wing goal that the Moon administration is trying to make happen:
The presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said Friday that South Korea and the United States will proceed with their planned joint military drills as scheduled, despite North Korea’s warning.
North Korea’s state media said earlier in the day that the two short-range ballistic missiles the country fired Thursday were a “solemn warning” against South Korea, calling for the suspension of Seoul’s planned military exercises and its purchase of what it called offensive weapons.
Cheong Wa Dae said it will not issue an official statement regarding reports by the North’s media as it only responds to a country’s official stance.
When asked about the possibility to review the allies’ military drills, “It is known that nothing has changed,” a presidential official told reporters, asking not to be named.
Seoul and Washington plan to conduct the summertime exercise, named 19-2 Dong Maeng, to verify Seoul’s capabilities for its envisioned retaking of wartime operational control (OPCON) of its troops from Washington.
I guess we will see in the coming years if this actually happens or not since it is tied to the OPCON transfer that has been repeatedly delayed:
Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo shakes hands with acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan at the beginning of the ROK-U.S. bilateral defense talks held at the ministry compound in Yongsan, Seoul, Monday. The transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) and the relocation of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command (CFC) topped the meeting’s agenda. Yonhap
Seoul and Washington agreed Monday to name a Korean four-star general to lead the combined forces command (CFC) here, according to the defense ministry.
They also agreed to relocate the command’s headquarters, now in Seoul, to the U.S. Forces Korea’s Camp Humphreys base in Pyeongtaek, citing the operational efficiency of the military forces.
The agreements were reached between Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo and his counterpart acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan in Seoul, the ministry said.
Shanahan later visited President Moon Jae-in at Cheong Wa Dae for talks on the alliance and issues regarding North Korea’s denuclearization, weeks ahead of the summit between Moon and U.S. President Donald Trump scheduled at the end of June. (………..)
Jeong and Shanahan also approved a plan to name the four-star South Korean general as a new leader of the CFC once the wartime OPCON transfer is completed, to take a separate role to lead in a combined defense, but not in assuming other duties. Currently a four-star U.S general heads the CFC.
That is what this editorial in the Korea Times is claiming:
Victor Cha
This means that who the next U.S. ambassador to Seoul will be is ever more important. He or she should be communicative with Koreans and have Trump’s trust ― giving a nudge when the president wobbles and making sure it gets noted. In that sense, Victor Cha, a former Bush operative and professor at Georgetown couldn’t be a worse candidate, according to five people in the know.
Putting their suggestions together, the result is Cha, who would act as if he were Caesar the Conqueror, trying to get his way no matter what at the risk of a great deal of friction with the Moon Jae-in government. That would be possible and dangerous because he, if appointed, would exert influence at key junctures when his boss was distracted, and the North’s asymmetric threat will peak. Some say that it is better now without a resident at Habib House in Seoul than Cha in it. [Korea Times]
You can read the rest at link, but basically since Cha is not a supporter of engagement with North Korea the academics the Korea Times spoke with think he is a bad choice for US ambassador.
From a military perspective something that I know Victor Cha has pushed for in the past is to have Seoul take over OPCON of Korean forces. This is something that left wing ROK presidents wanted in the past and then when the US called their bluff on this issue they started playing delay games until a conservative president took power and put it off entirely. I think Cha would probably also be a strong advocate for the ROK to pay more for the US-ROK alliance which is another key President Trump initiative.
