Prior Posting: Carter’s Deal
______________________________________________________
With Carter going live on CNN to announce this deal the White House felt they had to circle the wagons with Carter in order to appear to the American public that they were still in control of the situation. You have to remember that at the time the Clinton administration was looked at as foreign policy novices after the fiasco a year prior in Somalia. The administration would have looked really incompetent if they were seen as contradicting against what their perceived negotiator Carter was putting out to the American public on CNN.
Just like that Clinton’s policy making team went from drawing up war plans to defend Korea, to deciding how to implement the White House’s version of a nuclear freeze in order to make it look like that the White House was in fact calling the shots, not Carter or the North Koreans. On June 17th in Pyongyang, Carter received the administration’s version of a nuclear freeze which was slightly different from what he had agreed to with Kim Il-sung on a day prior. Carter objected to the new conditions because he felt it was unlikely that the North Koreans would agree to them. However, the North Koreans quickly agreed to the White House’s version of a freeze thus saving the White House some face and still giving the North Koreans what they wanted.
The fact that Carter was so concerned about the North Koreans not accepting the White House’s version of a freeze just goes to show how little Carter understood of North Korean negotiation tactics. The North Koreans have long been masters at appearing to be overly emotional and for lack of a better term creating an impression of being crazy and unpredictable. However, the North Koreans are in fact quite rational with set goals and objectives they want to achieve and only created the persona of unpredictability in order to convince peaceniks like Carter that they were serious about going to war at a moments notice if they didn’t get what they wanted.
In fact I find it unlikely that the North Koreans would have immediately went to war even if the White House was successful in implementing sanctions. The North Koreans knew all to well that war meant the end of their regime and their way of life because they knew they had no chance of winning a prolonged war with the US and South Korea. For people like North Korea’s ruling elite the only thing they worry about is keeping the money coming in to finance their lifestyles and war was not the way to do this, but the North Koreans had to convince Carter otherwise which they were successful in doing.
When Carter returned to Seoul, South Korean President Kim Young-sam was not very agreeable with Carter’s deal because once again he felt that the future of South Korea was being decided by foreign powers without the consultation of South Korea, which those that know a lot about Korean history can tell you is a point that runs deep in Korean society. One point that President Kim was excited about however, was that Kim Il Sung had told Carter during his trip that he would be willing to hold a summit with Kim Young-sam in the future. This never did come to fruition due to Kim Il Sung’s death months later.
When Carter was making plans to return to the US he wanted to head straight to the White House to consult the administration. However, the White House was still privately furious at Carter and did not want him to go to Washington. Later the administration relented and Carter flew to Washington and met the White House officials but President Clinton decided to go to Camp David and only spoke with Carter by telephone. I think it is safe to say that President Clinton was still pretty pissed off at Carter for undermining his White House policies.
I think Clinton knew Carter had set a dangerous precedent in regards to dealing with countries with weapons of mass destruction by appeasing the North Koreans and in effect causing the world’s most powerful nation, the United States, to bow down and give into the demands of one of the world’s poorest and most destitute nations all in the name of freezing a nuclear program. What signal would this send to the rest of the world’s dictators? If you want respect from the US, build WMD. It is that simple.
Carter could care less though because he felt he had finally made his long lost legacy by bringing peace to the Korean peninsula, however as history has shown which I’m sure President Clinton knew would, the 1994 Agreed Frame Work collapsed in 2002 when North Korea was discovered to be continuing on with a covert nuclear program despite the agreement to build the light water reactors.
The North Korean nuclear crisis continues to this day but has recently been overshadowed by the more clear and present danger Iran which is unsurprisingly playing the same cards that North Korea played so well in 1994 that they only want nuclear energy not weapons. Much like Clinton in 1994 President Bush is preparing to refer Iran to the UN for sanctions which Iran is implying would mean war as well.
Wouldn’t it be something if Carter popped up in Tehran trying to broker another similar peace deal with the mullahs especially when it was the Iranians who ended his presidency in disgrace by sacking the US Embassy and kidnapping it’s diplomats. However, with Carter there isn’t a dictator he doesn’t like as long as it serves his own personal ego to attain the legacy he will probably never receive.
I wonder if the Iranian’s have a hotel room already booked for him?
