Abstract – An Acoustic Analysis of Kim Jong-un's Speech For Examining His Emotional State (2016) https://t.co/jYNLcqvCRy

— Sino-NK (@Sino_NK) November 8, 2016

According to Victor Cha, under a Trump Presidency expect the OPCON issue to come back again:

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could try to complete the postponed transfer of the wartime operational control of South Korean forces from Washington to Seoul in an effort to reduce American security burdens, a top expert on Korea said Wednesday.

South Korea handed over control of its forces to the U.S. during the 1950-53 Korean War to defend against invading troops from North Korea. Peacetime control of its forces was returned in 1994, but the wartime control, known as OPCON, still rests with the U.S.

The two countries agreed in 2007 to transfer OPCON to Seoul by 2012. But the planned transfer was postponed twice amid growing threats from North Korea, first until 2015 and then indefinitely until the South becomes more capable of coping with the North’s threats.

“Trump’s guiding principle has been to put American interests first. In this regard, it is entirely plausible that a Trump presidency may seek to complete OPCON transfer and put these responsibilities in the hands of Koreans,” said Victor Cha, Korea chairman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I would not be surprised if Trump uses the OPCON issue as a negotiating chip to get South Korea to pay more for the upkeep of USFK.

Review

I like reading geopolitical forecasts especially ones involving Northeast Asia which is what made “The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century” an interesting read for me.  The book was written by strategist and founder of STRATFOR, George Friedman back in 2008.  The book makes predictions about countries around the world, but here is what he predicts for Northeast Asia in the near term.

Friedman believes that China’s rise will eventually end due to a massive economic recession caused by decades of bad bank loans similar to what happened to Japan and Korea in the 90’s.  The economic fallout will cause deep seated economic inequities to rise to the surface and create political instability in China.  Unlike Japan and Korea that had the social cohesion to implement difficult reforms after their banking crisis, the Chinese government will instead mobilize nationalism and blame foreigners for all their economic troubles.  This will ultimately fail and Friedman predicts the Communist party will be overthrown leaving China possibly a fractured country by the 2020’s.  Considering it is 2016 today I just don’t see the prediction of Communist Party losing power in the 2020’s coming true.

For the Korean peninsula Friedman believes unification will come in the 2020’s.  He foresees the Kim regime collapsing, but does not predict a major war breaking out.  I believe that as long as the Communist party remains in power in China the likelihood of North Korea seeing regime collapse will remain low.  Friedman though believes a unified Korea will be strong, but not as strong as Japan.  Friedman predicts that Russian power will collapse and fracture the country at the same time that Japan is on the rise.  To maintain Japan’s rise it will occupy territories in the Russian Far East that broke away from Russia for its resources.  Japan will greatly expand their naval power to challenge the United States Navy for control of the Pacific Ocean around Japan.  I have a hard time believing Japan would have the domestic political will to occupy parts of Russia considering the public’s deep memory of World War II.

As Friedman gets into the 2050s this is were he gets into the realm of science fiction.  He believes the US will have orbiting “battle stars” in space with manned crews.  These battle stars will have spaced based weapons that will allow the US military to control space.  Friedman believes that today’s US power is centered around the control of the seas where in the future the control of space is what will be the center of US power.  I believe this is in fact true, but I don’t know if manned battle stars is the way the US will control space.  The battle stars Friedman believes will allow the US military to drastically reduces its manpower size.  What manpower that is left for infantry duty will be equipped with battle suits that will make heavy weapons such as tanks obsolete.  Considering the advances in robotics and exoskeletons we are seeing today this doesn’t seem that far fetched.

He believes that tensions between Japan and the United States will grow to the point that Japan launches a sneak attack against the US battle stars and destroys them thus eliminating the US’s advantage in space.  The attack on the battle stars will then be followed by conventional attacks on US military bases by the Japanese to minimize the US military’s ability to counterattack Japan.  Much like with the attack on Pearl Harbor during World War II, the Japanese are going to hope that the successful attack causes the US to agree to terms favorable to the Japanese that solidifies their dominance in Asia.

While the Japanese and the US are battling, Turkey will join with Japan to attack the Polish empire.  Friedman believes that by the 2050’s Poland will be the powerful hegemon of Eastern Europe.  While battling the Japanese, the US will similarly help the Poles they are allied with to battle the Turks on the ground in Eastern Europe.  The US and its allies ultimately succeed and win the third World War and Friedman believes this will spur a technological and economic Golden Age for the United States in the 2060’s and 2070’s.  The Golden Age will end in the 2080’s when the US will have a showdown with Mexico over control of the American Southwest which by then will be a majority ethnic Mexican population.  Friedman believes that by the 2080’s Mexico will be a world power and by then have the confidence to challenge the United States to regain the American Southwest.  The US military may be called to conduct counterinsurgency operations in places such like Los Angeles.

Conclusion

Who knows if any of what is predicted in this book will come true, but Friedman’s analysis makes constant references to past historical trends to help support his predictions which I found interesting.  The first part of the book I thought was the most believable because you can see some of his predictions coming true.  However, the last half of the book as I said before is in the realm of science fiction so it was not as believable.  In fairness, trying to predict that far out is pretty difficult.  For example could someone after the American Civil War have predicted the nations and military technology used during World War II accurately?  Looking one hundred years out is a difficult proposition for any analyst; regardless the book is a good read for those who enjoy informed geopolitical analysis.

Korean netizens joking that Americans had choice between first women president and first crazy president, but Koreans elected both in 2012.

— Devon Rowcliffe (@WhoAteTheSquid) November 9, 2016

This photo taken from the website of the 8th Army of the United States Forces Korea (USFK) on Nov. 7, 2016, shows families of U.S. troops boarding a C-130 transport plane during the recent Courageous Channel noncombatant evacuation exercise at an undisclosed military base here. About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed here as a deterrent against North Korea, while there are more than 150,000 civilians with the USFK, including U.S. government noncombatants, and private American citizens and their families. (Yonhap)

Packing up at the @USEmbassySeoul election party. pic.twitter.com/0XR7rYxRVu

— James Pearson (@pearswick) November 9, 2016

It was an amazing US election to see Donald Trump defy expectations and win the US Presidency over Hillary Clinton.  Congratulations to him and his campaign team.  His election will definitely be something that political scientists will be talking about for decades to come.  By the way I thought his acceptance speech was really good:

“Now it’s time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all Americans,” he said.

To countries around the world, Trump said, “While we will always put America’s interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone, with everyone.”

“All people and all other nations. We will seek common ground, not hostility, partnership, not conflict,” he said.  [Yonhap]

Here is what South Korean President Park Geun-hye had to say about the election of Donald Trump:

The commander-in-chief made the remarks during a briefing on the outcome of the National Security Council (NSC) session after Republican Donald Trump won the White House in a hard-fought race against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

“Given the United States is our ally and that the South Korea-U.S. relationship has a great impact on our diplomacy, security and economy, I think we need to extensively explore ways to develop close relations with the incoming Trump administration,” she said.

“In light of the grave situation in which North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats are growing day by day, I call on you to establish cooperative ties with the incoming U.S. administration early in the stage of the government transition,” she added.  [Yonhap]

So what does Donald Trump’s victory mean for the people of South Korea who were deeply against the election of Trump?  Here are my quick thoughts on the biggest areas that the ROK should expect possible impacts on:

• USFK Cost Sharing: Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to see US allies pay more to support US forces.  To keep this campaign promise I would expect that Trump will ask that South Korea pay more for the upkeep of US forces.  Currently the ROK pays about 50% for upkeep while Japan pays about 75%.  I would expect that South Korea will be asked to pay a number closer to what Japan pays.

• US-ROK Free Trade Agreement: Due to Trump’s election victory the Korean stock market has tanked.  The market tanked because of fears that Trump will want to renegotiate the US-Korea Free Trade Agreement:A key concern is Trump’s “America first” position that includes a preference for trade protectionism.“The market will inevitably face a short-term adjustment if Trump wins,” said Kim Ji-na, a fixed income analyst at IBK Securities. “There’s even a possibility that the 1,900 barrier could fall as Trump’s victory will only raise instability and bring about policy risks.”The bigger concern is that Korea’s economy, which has been facing tough times due to shrinking exports, will suffer heavily.“The Trump victory will not only act as a potential risk for the Korean market but also the global economy,” said Hwang Na-young, a Woori Finance Research Institute researcher. “Once Trump and the Republicans take over, most of the major policies of the Barack Obama years will be reversed: repealing Obamacare, huge tax cuts, easing of financial regulations and a preference for fossil fuel.

  “Major changes are likely in regards to trade policies as protectionism deepens on top of an isolationist approach to diplomatic polices.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

  Here are some facts and figures about Korea-US trade from the Joong Ang Ilbo article:

• I would be surprised if Trump makes it a priority to go after the US-ROK FTA.  Considering the amount of manufacturing jobs brought to the US from Korean car manufacturers it seems the US-ROK FTA is a deal he would want to keep in place.  I think his immediate focus will be on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the North American Free Trade Agreements (NAFTA) which he has been highly critical of.

• North Korea Nuclear Issue: I don’t see Trump wanting to make any nuclear agreement with Kim Jong-un considering the country’s past track record of violating the agreements.  What I do think he will do is push for more sanctions against Chinese banks and businesses in an effort to pressure the Chinese government to reign in North Korea:
  

  Trump also identified North Korea as a problem for China, not the U.S.

  “I would get China to make that guy disappear, in one form or another, very quickly,” Trump said in February on the CBS TV program “This Morning.”

  “China has absolute control of North Korea. They won’t say it, but they do. And they should make that problem disappear.” [Korea Times]

• Immigration: Any Koreans living illegally in the US and hoping for amnesty should probably forget about that idea happening anytime soon.  With that said I do think ironically that with a President Trump an immigration reform deal is more likely because he will try and cut a deal that is not blanket amnesty, but at the same time provides a process for foreign workers to be sponsored to work in the US.  This would reduce illegal immigration across the US-Mexico border and possibly allow him to say he does not need to fully build his famous wall.

Conclusion: So those are my quick thoughts on what the election of Donald Trump means for South Korea.  I think the biggest impact is that the ROK should expect to pay more for the upkeep of USFK.  If not then Trump may begin relooking the US-ROK FTA which South Korea has much more to lose.  Does anyone else have any other areas that they foresee that a President Trump will have a significant impact on in South Korea over the next four years?  If so please share your opinions in the comments section.

The real question is why isn’t she already sanctioned considering how she is a key regime figure?:

The South Korean government is considering blacklisting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sister. The unification ministry said on Monday, 7 November, that it was “carefully” reviewing adding Kim Yo-jong to its list of unilateral sanctions imposed against the reclusive state, following its fifth nuclear test in September.

Seoul has already blacklisted many Pyongyang officials after the country engaged in frequent missile tests earlier in the year, in addition to a nuclear test in January. However, the North Korean leader and his younger sister were not in the list, Yonhap news agency reported.  [IB Times]

You can read more at the link.

More video from last night's protest in Seoul against president Park Geun-hye. Even bigger protests expected next weekend, local media says. pic.twitter.com/SRzueNMeIt

— James Pearson (@pearswick) November 6, 2016

A statue of a girl symbolizing former Korean sex slaves for Japanese soldiers during World War II wears winter clothes, a scarf and a wooly hat in front of the Japanese Embassy in Seoul on Nov. 7, 2016, or “ipdong,” one of the 24 seasonal divisions under the lunar calendar that marks the onset of winter. (Yonhap)