A farm on the southern Jeju Island is covered in tangerine peels laid out in the field to dry on Dec. 7, 2016. Dried tangerine peels are a popular tea ingredient. (Yonhap)
Here is the latest on the Trump phone call with the President of Taiwan that the media was initially trying to frame as him bungling US foreign policy:
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s phone call with Taiwan’s president shows the incoming administration believes China should work hard on North Korea as much as it cares about the cross-strait issue, a transition team official was quoted as saying Tuesday.
The official made the remark during a meeting with a group of South Korean lawmakers, pointing out that China has been unwilling to use its influence over Pyongyang even though Beijing provides most of the North’s energy and food supplies, according to the participating lawmakers.
They declined to identify the official.
On Friday, Trump spoke by phone with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, breaking the decadeslong diplomatic tradition that the U.S. has kept under its “One China” policy since severing ties with Taiwan and normalizing relations with Beijing.
China considers Taiwan a renegade province that must be unified with the mainland and rails against any support for Taiwan’s independence or the notion that the island is not part of the country. Despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties, the U.S. has maintained friendly relations with Taiwan. [Yonhap]
North Korea’s cyber warfare teams apparently have hacked into South Korea’s cyber command:
North Korea appears to have hacked South Korea’s cyber command in what could be the latest cyberattack against Seoul, the military here said Tuesday, .
“It seems the intranet server of the cyber command has been contaminated with malware. We found that some military documents, including confidential information, have been hacked,” an official at the Ministry of National Defense told Yonhap News Agency. He said that authorities suspect North Korea is behind the latest online infiltrations.
The cyber command said it isolated the affected server from the whole network to avoid the spread of viruses. But it has yet to fully determine what data were leaked.
It marked the first time that the data of South Korea’s cyber command has been compromised. South Korea set up the command in January 2010 as part of its efforts to counter external hacking attempts on the country’s military. [Yonhap]
You can read the rest at the link, but the article says that classified information may have been stolen.
Some else has jumped on the North Korean regime change bandwagon:
Regime change is the only way to get North Korea off the current path, a former top American diplomat said Monday.
Richard Armitage, former deputy secretary of state, made the point during a security forum, saying he no longer believes it’s possible to change Pyongyang’s behavior without a regime change.
“I, like some of the others around here, for years spent a lot of time talking about … we don’t really want regime change in North Korea. We just want to change the regime, their behavior change. We’re not looking to interfere with the leadership of the DPRK,” Armitage said.
“I no longer hold that view. The only way in my view that North Korea can be dissuaded from their present path is by a regime change,” he said during the forum on the Korea-U.S. alliance at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Armitage also said that the U.S. should put greater pressure on the North over its human rights record and cut the regime off the international financial system.
“In my experience dealing with North Korea, two things have made an impression on them. One was the human rights security council resolution … and our interference in the finances of North Korea in the Macau bank,” he said. [Yonhap]
This photo from LIG Nex1 on Dec. 2, 2016, shows the “Hyungung,” a man-portable anti-tank system that has gone into production. The company said it signed a 32.7 billion-won (US$27.9 million) deal with the Defense Acquisition Program Administration a day before for initial production of the guided rocket system. (Yonhap)
I don’t think we are going to see the North Koreans do anything serious until the whole President Park fiasco plays out. They are getting a propaganda coup out of this scandal and have a real chance of having a South Korean left wing politician favorable to North Korea elected as the next President. A serious provocation cycle could put all of this at risk:
In this photo, taken on Nov. 8, 2016, Thomas S. Vandal, commanding general of the Eighth Army, delivers a speech on security issues at a Seoul university. (Yonhap)
A top U.S. general here warned that North Korea could stage a provocation within two months to test the incoming U.S. administration or take advantage of political instability in Seoul.
Thomas S. Vandal, commander of the Eighth Army, made the remark in a luncheon meeting with senior reporters, citing the communist country’s track record of staging provocations in times of transition of power in Seoul and Washington.
Though there are no specific signs yet, he said, North Korea could raise military tension in an attempt to test President-elect Donald Trump, as Pyongyang has no idea of his policy toward the North.
He also said the North may also be tempted to provoke the South at a time Seoul is transfixed by a sprawling corruption scandal involving President Park Geun-hye and her close confidante. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but I think the February/March timeframe when the next Key Resolve exercise happens the North Koreans will probably do there normal protests and rhetoric. However, I don’t expect them to do a serious provocation such as sinking a South Korean ship or launching an artillery strike on a border island like we have seen in the past.
Here is the latest twist and turn in the South Korean Presidential political crisis:
Rep. Lee Jung-hyun, left, chairman of the ruling Saenuri Party, talks with Rep. Chung Jin-suk, right, its floor leader, in the National Assembly on Tuesday after a meeting with President Park Geun-hye earlier in the day. [NEWSIS]President Park Geun-hye said Tuesday she will go the full distance with the impeachment process and has no intention of voluntarily stepping down.
Ahead of the scheduled National Assembly vote on a presidential impeachment motion Friday, Park met with Saenuri Party Chairman Lee Jung-hyun and floor leader Chung Jin-suk at the Blue House. After the 55-minute meeting, which was proposed by Park, Chung returned to the ruling party and made public Park’s position on the fate of a presidency gravely threatened by an influence-peddling and abuse of power scandal.
“If the impeachment process is moved forward as scheduled, and if the motion is passed, I am ready to stay calm and composed during the Constitutional Court’s deliberation on the legality of the impeachment,” Park was quoted as saying. “When the impeachment is passed, I will accept it and do all my best under that circumstance.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read the rest at the link, but according to the article the constitutional court has up to six months after impeachment to determine its legality.
It looks like Japanese pop culture is filling the vacuum caused by the K-Pop ban in China caused by the THAAD dispute:
China has become hostile toward South Korea’s entertainment content but is welcoming to cultural products from Japan despite its strained political ties with both countries, sources close to the matter said Sunday.
Relations between China and South Korea took a hit earlier this year after Seoul announced the deployment of an advanced U.S. missile defense system called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) on its soil. While South Korea and the U.S. argued the system would only be used to deter North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threats, China protested the move as a serious threat to its security interests.
In the months that followed, a number of South Korean celebrities were reportedly forced to cancel their scheduled events in China, while various South Korean TV programs and films had to postpone their release in the country.
“Judging from what I’ve determined through various channels, the ban on Korean cultural products appears to be real,” said one source who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Chinese broadcasters have not only banned the appearance of South Korean entertainers but also taken down commercials featuring them.”
The Chinese government has refused to verify rumors of the ban, although according to the sources, many Chinese enterprises have stopped applying for government permission for concerts or appearances by South Korean stars.
Before the THAAD decision, China was a huge market for South Korean cultural products mostly related to “hallyu,” or the K-pop and K-dramas that have gained increasing popularity worldwide.
As Korean content took a hit, Japan’s cultural content has shown no signs of losing ground in China.
In fact, the Japanese animation film “Your Name” drew 2.24 million people on Friday, breaking the opening day record for a 2D animation in China. Moreover, local media have praised the film with top ratings and rave reviews. [Yonhap]