After all the months of drama in regards to this issue, the THAAD launchers are finally in:
U.S. military vehicle moves as South Korean police officers try to block residents and protesters who oppose to deploy an advanced U.S. missile defense system called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, in Seongju, South Korea, Thursday, Sept. 7, 2017.
I guess the next concern from USFK will be whether the road to the THAAD site will remain open or is this a one time police presence to open the road? If so the helicopter resupplies to the site will have to continue:
Thousands of South Korean police were deployed near the THAAD site, which is in a remote southeastern area of the country, to clear the way for the U.S. convoy carrying the four additional launchers and other equipment on Thursday.
Scuffles broke out when hundreds of protesters tried to block the path to the former golf course that now houses THAAD. Local health and fire officials said dozens of people suffered mostly minor injuries.
The defense ministry said that, despite the protests, the THAAD deployment was completed.
Officials stressed it was a “tentative” measure resulting from the urgent threat posed by North Korea and a decision on maintaining THAAD will be made after a full environmental impact assessment is completed. [Stars & Stripes]
Via a reader tip comes this article from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute that describes the possible perils of a pre-emptive strike on North Korea:
First, conflict on the Korean peninsula could result in a momentous change in China’s role in the region and ultimately the globe. That could range from absolute regional dominance to collapse and disintegration into internal instability.
Regardless of the outcome of the conflict, South Korea could reject a self-interested, value-less, America-first approach to the region and choose to accept China’s dominance as the price to be paid for unification. For most South Koreans, China’s current steady position of reiterating the need for de-escalation, multilateral dialogue, and ultimately denuclearisation—essentially, diplomacy—stands in stark contrast to the incoherence and fecklessness of Donald Trump’s bluster. Throughout history, when China was weak, external states or greater independence came to the Korean peninsula. When China was strong, the Korean peninsula fell under its influence. It was from this point that China’s regional influence grew. China’s dominance on the Korean peninsula could again be a launching pad for dominance in East Asia.
Alternatively, unification could spread dissatisfaction and opposition to authoritarian rule across the region, leading to internal instability in China. Political disruption, economic dislocation and descent into instability are possible outcomes. Even in the most favourable unification scenario, North Koreans with direct or indirect experience of the momentous human rights abuses that China implicitly supported could act as a powerful constraint to China’s long-term influence in a unified Korea. China’s current policies aimed at maintaining the status quo are founded on the fears of such potential outcomes. Regardless of which way the dice fall, China’s regional role will change. A pre-emptive strike in Korea would precipitate that change. [The Strategist]
You can read more at the link, but I don’t think anyone denies that China will have a major role in after a conflict with North Korea. That is why I think the US government is giving China the maximum opportunity to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue without a military confrontation. I also think if the price of a unified Korea after a military conflict is one with China with primary hegemony over the peninsula many policy makers may actually think that may be a good deal to get rid of the Kim regime and their nuclear weapons.
A farmer driving a tractor goes past the former Cheorwon office of the Workers’ Party of Korea, the ruling party of North Korea, in the central South Korean border town of Cheorwon on Sept. 4, 2017, at a time when North Korea’s sixth nuclear test the previous day raised tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The North announced the previous day it tested a hydrogen bomb that can fit on an intercontinental ballistic missile with “perfect” success. (Yonhap)
It looks like there could be chaos today in in Seongju as the US military tries to move the remaining launchers and equipment on to the THAAD site:
The U.S. military will deploy additional launchers for an advanced missile-defense system Thursday in a remote area of South Korea despite local protests, the defense ministry said.
Seoul said Monday that it had cleared the last administrative hurdle to installing four more launchers soon to complete the deployment of the anti-missile battery known as THAAD, aimed at countering the growing threat from the North.
The plan has met with regular protests in Seongju, the southeastern area where the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system is stationed.
Protesters gathered again Wednesday near the former golf course that is housing THAAD, saying they would try to try to block the entrance with cars and tractors. [Stars & Stripes]
Considering how powerful their latest nuclear test was the North Koreans may not need to conduct another nuclear test under this mountain which is now at risk of collapsing and releasing deadly radiation:
A mountain in North Korea believed to have served as the site of five of the rogue regime’s nuclear tests — including Sunday’s supposed hydrogen bomb explosion — is at risk of collapsing and leaking radiation into the region, a Chinese scientist said Monday.
Researchers at the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei, Anhui province, examined the Punggye-ri site and said they “were confident” underground detonations were occurring underneath the mountain, South China Morning Post reported. Wang Naiyan, a former chairman of the China Nuclear Society and a researcher on China’s own nuclear weapons program, said another test underneath the mountain can cause an “environmental disaster” if the site caves in on itself, allowing radiation to escape and “drift across the region,” including into China. [Fox News via a reader tip]
As I have said before, despite all the provocations and deadly aggressive behavior over the past few years by Kim Jong-un, some how South Koreans are more fearful of President Trump:
Citizens in Seoul Station watch news showing a North Korean newsreader announcing that Pyongyang successfully carried out a hydrogen bomb test, Sunday. / Yonhap
“My firm belief is that war will not happen. The general consensus among my friends is that war won’t break out since the U.S. and China are involved,” Choi Yong-kwan, a 20-year-old college student, said as he read an article on his mobile phone.”But I definitely do feel a sense of growing tension and fear ― it’s their sixth nuclear test and they are on their way to refining their nukes.”
“I’ll leave Korea and head for Canada or something” was the initial response from Park, an elementary school teacher. But as she went on, she dismissed the idea of war. “To be honest I don’t put too much thought into this because it’s always been this way. War does not come easily,” she said. “And we shouldn’t be worried. Fear is what leads to war.”
For the public in the South, North Korea’s provocations are not treated as something new. Although most stuck to this instinct, some added U.S. President Donald Trump as a new, unpredictable and perhaps even more frightening variable.
“This is nothing new. Just another provocation by the North as I see it and it’s been worse before but still did not lead to war. I don’t think any South Korean male who has been in the military is scared,” 29-year-old Yoon Tae-jun from Busan said, adding “But then again I’m not sure this time because of Trump.
“I’m not keeping an eye on this ― maybe this is the problem. But this time, maybe Trump will take some sort of action,” Kwon Suk-in, 27, said. “There must be no war.” [Korea Times]
A military helicopter airlifts matrials toward a golf course in Seongju, 296 km southeast of Seoul, where two launchers for an advanced U.S. missile defense system, known as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), are deployed on Sept. 4, 2017. South Korea’s defense ministry announced that U.S. Forces Korea will soon install four more THAAD missile defense launchers at the site. (Yonhap)
This statement from North Korea’s ambassador is said in way in which the Kim regime wants to blame the US for them conducting an ICBM test:
North Korea has warned it is ready to send “more gift packages” to the US if it continues to put pressure on the regime.
Han Tae Song, ambassador of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) to the UN in Geneva, was addressing the UN-sponsored Conference on Disarmament two days after his country detonated its sixth and largest nuclear test.
“I am proud of saying that just two days ago on the 3rd of September, DPRK succcessfully carried out a hydrogen bomb test for intercontinental ballistic rocket under its plan for building a strategic nuclear force,” Mr Han said.
He told the Geneva forum: “The recent self-defence measures by my country, DPRK, are a gift package addressed to none other than the US.
“The US will receive more gift packages from my country as long as it relies on reckless provocations and futile attempts to put pressure on the DPRK,” he added.
