This composite photo, released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 16, 2017, shows the launch of the Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
That is what columnist Oh Young-jin in the Korea Times is saying that South Korea should prepare for :
Oh Young-jin
Just the talk of a U.S. pullout could shake the Korean economy upside down, sending foreign investors packing and leaving.
So if there would be a separation between the two, it would be the U.S. that has a change of heart.
There have been distinct signs that this is happening.
First, Henry Kissinger, a U.S. guru of diplomacy serving as secretary of state and national security adviser in the Nixon and Ford administrations, is a strong advocate for that. Typical of big power politics, wrapped in the trappings of realpolitik, the Nobel Peace Prize winner suggests that the U.S. should deal directly with China to resolve the North Korean crisis.
He suggests that the U.S. address China’s biggest concern ― Korean unification led by Seoul that sees American GIs and their Korean allies breathing down its neck with the buffer of the North gone. Kissinger’s solution is pulling out U.S. troops out of the Korean Peninsula.
Second, why is the Kissinger formula noteworthy? The answer lies in Steve Bannon, a mentor to U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently was fired as chief strategist. He was right on the money when he referred to the U.S. withdrawal from the South to settle the North Korean crisis, although he dismissed it as a remote possibility. (………)
Seoul should be prepared for three contingencies ― a total U.S. withdrawal, partial and maintenance of the status quo. The first scenario is comparable to the Paris peace accord struck by the U.S. and the communist Vietnamese, which led to the fall of Saigon as the U.S. troops were leaving. The examples for the second are Iraq and Afghanistan where the U.S. has drastically reduced its troops, which has seen an occasional surge. The third is the current situation. [Korea Times]
It seems to me that every dollar South Korea spends on aid to North Korea is one more dollar that the Kim regime can divert towards its missile and nuclear programs:
President Moon Jae-in suggested Friday that South Korea could go ahead with humanitarian aid to North Korea in a thinly veiled rejection of a call for caution by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Abe asked Moon to consider the timing of the proposed aid during their phone conversation, but Moon said aid is an issue that should be dealt with regardless of political situations, an official said.
Moon said monitoring is a precondition to the aid in an apparent attempt to ensure that the aid reaches its intended beneficiaries in North Korea.
South Korea is set to decide next Thursday whether to approve the aid to infants and pregnant women in North Korea. If approved, it would mark the resumption of Seoul’s aid to North Korea via U.N. organizations, last carried out in December 2015. [Yonhap]
It appears that some in Congress want to force China to make a tough decision of either supporting the Kim regime or remain part of the international banking system:
Frustrated U.S. lawmakers called on Tuesday for a high-powered response to North Korea’s nuclear tests, saying Washington should act alone if necessary to stiffen sanctions on companies from China, Russia and any country doing business with Pyongyang.
“I believe the response from the United States and our allies should be supercharged,” said Representative Ed Royce, chairman of the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee.
“We need to use every ounce of leverage … to put maximum pressure on this rogue regime,” the Republican congressman told a hearing on North Korea. “Time is running out.” (……)
“We can designate Chinese banks and companies unilaterally, giving them a choice between doing business with North Korea or the United States,” said Royce, who had breakfast on Tuesday with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
“We should go after banks and companies in other countries that do business with North Korea the same way,” he said. [Reuters]
This photo from the city government of Chungju, North Chungcheong Province, on Sept. 13, 2017, shows a man-made island of water plants in the shape of a star. The island got its motif from a poem by writer Shin Kyung-rim, who was born in the city 147 kilometers southeast of Seoul. (Yonhap)
Some how I doubt Kim Jong-un was impressed by this South Korean response to his recent missile test over Japan considering one missile did not even work:
South Korea’s military said Friday it has fired two ballistic missiles in a swift response to North Korea’s latest provocation.
The Army shot the Hyunmoo-2 missiles from an eastern site near the inter-Korean border just six minutes after the North’s missile firing from Pyongyang.
One “accurately hit” a simulated target in the East Sea about 250 kilometers away, a Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) official told reporters in a background briefing.
It’s the same distance between the training area and the Sunan airfield in Pyongyang, where the missile was fired.
The other, however, fell into water “in the initial stage,” he added. Related authorities are analyzing the reason.
A defense ministry official pointed out the South’s response came while the North’s missile was still flying.
He stressed that the military was able to take such a quick measure as it detected signs of the secretive North preparing to fire the missile in advance. Related information was immediately reported to President Moon Jae-in who ordered the missile training. [Korea Times]
Here are the details about North Korea’s latest missile launch over Japan:
A file photo of North Korea’s Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile, which it test-launched on Aug. 29. [YONHAP]
North Korea has fired a ballistic missile over Japan, in the face of fresh sanctions against the isolated nation, according to the Japanese and South Korean governments. The missile was launched from the capital Pyongyang on Thursday just days after the U.S. announced additional sanctions against North Korea for carrying out a successful test of a hydrogen bomb capable of being fitted to an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Prior to that nuclear test, North Korea last month launched a missile over Japan in an act condemned by the United Nations at the time as “not just a threat to the region but all U.N. member states,” The New York Times reported.
According to a statement from the South Korean military Thursday, the missile is thought to have reached an altitude of 770km (478 miles) and travelled around 3,700km, with the Japanese government reporting the missile landed 1,240 miles east of Hokkaido. The chief cabinet secretary to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Yoshihide Suga, told The New York Times the country “absolutely cannot accept the repeated outrageous provocative actions by North Korea.” [Newsweek]
You can read more at the link, but what is significant about this launch is that the North Koreans have confirmed that they can range Guam:
The intermediate-range missile fired from Pyongyang at 6:57 a.m. on Friday flew over the northern island of Hokkaido, reaching an altitude of 770 kilometers (478 miles) before landing in the Pacific Ocean. It traveled 3,700 kilometers (2,300 miles) — further than the 3,400 kilometers (2,100 miles) from Pyongyang to Guam, which North Korea has repeatedly threatened.
“The range of this test was significant since North Korea demonstrated that it could reach Guam with this missile, although the payload the missile was carrying is not known,” David Wright, a co-director of the Union of Concerned Scientists, wrote in a blog post. [Bloomberg]
