Here is what a former nuclear negotiator with North Korea had to say recently about the Trump administration:
Robert Gallucci, a former U.S. special envoy to North Korea, speaks in the National Assembly, Monday. / Yonhap
Robert Gallucci, the chief negotiator during the 1994 North Korean nuclear crisis, called for dialogue with the North to make a breakthrough in the crisis on the Korean Peninsula, during his speech at Seoul’s National Assembly, Monday.
Gallucci, chairman of the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, D.C., reiterated the U.S. should negotiate with Pyongyang, if there’s room for improved circumstances through the negotiation.
“What we should not ask is a perfect deal. We should not ask how much does it cost,” Gallucci said in an event co-hosted by Reps. Kim Kyung-hyup and Lee Tae-kyu, members of the Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee.
“We should rather ask are we better off with the deal,” the former special envoy noted, referring to his past experience of talking with his North Korean counterpart Kang Sok-ju in Geneva, Switzerland.
“In 1994, our intelligence community estimated North Korea was capable to produce 200 kilograms of plutonium a year. However, when President George Bush came into office in 2001, North Korea had zero nuclear weapons,” he said. “Did the North cheat us? The answer is yes. However, the deal was still a good one.” [Korea Times]
That last paragraph is all everyone needs to see to understand the problem with past negotiations with North Korea. Gallucci is apparently more than happy to allow the North Koreans to cheat on a deal as long as there is a deal.
Here is what else he had to say:
Touching on the heightened tension sparked by the North’s Nov. 29 launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Gallucci pointed out that it is a crisis between the North and the entire international community.
“It is a crisis because if military activity were to begin in days, indeed just days, no one in this room could be surprised, or should be surprised. That I think is a fair definition of crisis,” he said. [Yonhap]
Who is assessing military action to happen within days except for people that don’t closely follow North Korea? The ICBM launch was a research and development activity like their other prior test launches. The US military has not launched any retaliatory strikes in response to these R&D activities and has instead focused on deterrence responses. If the Kim regime fires a missile that lands in or near US territory than we will definitely have a military crisis on our hands.
The Kim regime has clearly been firing missiles in areas that are no where near US territory in order to not provoke a crisis. Additionally the Kim regime has not shelled any islands, attacked ROK naval vessels, or murdered ROK servicemembers in quite sometime. It is clear the Kim regime does not want a military crisis and instead is focusing on R&D of their ballistic missile and nuclear capabilities.
Why they are developing their ICBMs and nuclear capability Gallucci believes is for deterrence:
“This North Korean capability raises a question about whether the U.S. will fulfill its alliance responsibilities to its allies,” he said. “It raises a question about whether the U.S. will put Washington D.C. and New York City at risk in order to prevent North Korea from blackmailing South Korea and to deter any attack on Seoul specifically.”
But he noted the military dominance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, saying Pyongyang cannot hold Seoul “hostage” with its artillery or nuclear weapons unless it is “suicidal.” He also voiced skepticism about the existence of a “good” military option without any cost or risk.
“Its nuclear weapons are good for one thing only to deter an effort at changing their regime. That is plausible,” he said.
“But the North cannot plausibly blackmail, it cannot deter a military response to its adventurism, it cannot compel the ROK (Republic of Korea) or the U.S. to do anything, it cannot break our alliance,” he added. [Yonhap]
I think his remarks that North Korea is not developing nuclear weapons to blackmail the South is in direct response to ROK Drop favorite Joshua Stanton. Stanton of One Free Korea fame has long argued that the North’s nuclear program is less about deterrence and more about driving concessions out of the South to create a confederation of the two countries on Kim’s terms.
I support Stanton’s position because reunification is a driving force within the Cult of Kim. The Kim regime has long had deterrence through its conventional weapons that could destroy Seoul. Most other countries in the world would have faced regime change retaliation for the provocations the North Koreans have executed over the years. However, the Kim regime has faced little military retaliation because of the threat to Seoul.
Developing nuclear weapons allows the regime to threaten the US homeland for the first time. It is arguable the regime wants to create a negotiating environment where it hopes to separate the ROK from the US. This would explain why the North Koreans continuously bring up wanting to negotiate a peace treaty to end the Korean War. If a peace treaty is signed then why would US troops be needed in South Korea any more? The next goal for the Kim regime would be to co-opt the ROK into a confederation on North Korean terms.
The Marines are lucky this window did not hit a kid at the school. Could you imagine the protests that would have happened if some kid at the school was killed by this window? Fortunately no one was injured by this negligence:
This image from an NHK broadcast shows a window from a CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter after it fell onto an elementary school sports field near Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, Okinawa, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2017.
The Marine Corps says human error caused a helicopter window to fall onto the grounds of a crowded elementary school last week on Okinawa.
The incident occurred Wednesday morning when a CH-53E Super Stallion’s window inexplicably became separated from the aircraft and landed on Futenma Daini Elementary School’s sports field, which is adjacent to Marine Corps Air Station Futenma’s fence line. More than 50 schoolchildren were playing at the time, and one boy was slightly injured from a pebble that flew up during impact.
The 1st Marine Aircraft Wing has completed a “thorough” investigation into the incident and determined it was caused by human error, officials said a statement released Monday evening.
The window, which was not properly secured before takeoff, was designed to be removed so that the crew can evacuate during an emergency, the statement said.
Marine officials said they have conducted additional training for both air and maintenance crews to reinforce proper procedures. Also, all CH-53E aircraft have been thoroughly inspected and checked for mechanical or structural issues with the windows. [Stars & Stripes]
You can read more at the link, but really this incident should serve as an example of why the Marines are trying to move Futenma to the northern part of Okinawa away from the major population center of the island.
It will be interesting to see if this was just some kind of sad coincidence or whether some kind of bacteria or mechanical function of the equipment used for pre-mature babies is to blame:
Chung Hye-won, director of the department of obstetrics and gynecology at the Ewha Womans University Medical Center in western Seoul, apologizes in a press briefing at the hospital on Sunday for the deaths of four newborn babies at the hospital on Saturday night. [YONHAP]Four newborn babies died within a two-hour span at Ewha Womans University Medical Center in Seoul on Saturday night. Authorities are investigating the cause.“We apologize to the relatives of the babies and to everyone in this country,” said Chung Hye-won, director of the department of obstetrics and gynecology at the hospital, in a press briefing at the hospital on Sunday. “Four babies being treated at the intensive care unit for the newborns at the hospital suffered sudden cardiac arrest at differing times, starting from around 5:40 p.m. on Saturday.
“We tried to revive the babies through CPR but could not,” she said. “The hospital is working with public health centers and authorities to find out the cause of their deaths. We apologize again to the relatives for this unfortunate and rare incident and promise to do our best to find out the cause behind it.”
Authorities requested the National Forensic Service conduct autopsies on the four dead infants to find out the cause of their deaths. The autopsies are scheduled to be held Monday morning. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but regardless of the cause it is a very sad day and condolences to all the parents involved.
What is going on with this "80" on a North Korean mountain? It is visible on @planetlabs and @googleearth as far back as 2011 (oldest available imagery). It is the only case in the country as far as I am aware. Coordinates: 40.511746°, 127.520018°. pic.twitter.com/qyistgDUJz
North Korea’s top leader Kim Jong-un pays respect to his late father at a mausoleum in Pyongyang in this photo published in the Dec. 18, 2017, edition of the North’s ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun. The North’s media had been mum on the leader’s whereabouts on Dec. 17, when the entire country mourns the death of Kim Jong-il, raising curiosity among North Korea watchers. The photo on the right shows the basket of flowers Kim placed at the mausoleum. (Yonhap)
With the ROK President ending his visit to China this week the timing of this breach of the South Korea’s Air Defense Identification Zone cannot be coincidental:
Five Chinese military aircraft, including bombers and fighter jets, breached Korea’s air defense identification zone (Kadiz) Monday morning without notice, prompting the South Korean Air Force to scramble its fighters in response.
The Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) announced that at around 10:10 a.m. Monday, five Chinese military planes were detected entering the Kadiz from southwest of Ieodo, underwater reefs located south of Jeju Island controlled by Korea that belong in waters that both Seoul and Beijing claim.
The Chinese aircraft were said to have included two nuclear-capable Xian H-6 bombers, two J-11 fighter jets and a Tu-154 reconnaissance plane. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but this is likely just another attempt to put pressure on the ROK to show Chinese unhappiness with the THAAD deployment.
It looks like the fishing boats that don’t become “ghost ships” have become a major nuisance for the Japanese Coast Guard:
The Japan Coast Guard wages a constant battle to chase North Korean fishing boats from Japan’s exclusive economic zone.
From July, it began using water cannons on a regular basis to warn such boats to leave, but those efforts seem to have had little effect.
Instead, the number of boats operating in Japanese waters has increased, as well as those washing ashore, sometimes with dead crew members.
On Dec. 15, the coast guard released photos and video footage of its relentless campaign to rid Japanese waters of the unwelcome visitors.
The photos and videos released were taken between September and November in the Yamatotai fishing ground located about 400 kilometers west of Akita Prefecture’s Oga Peninsula. [Asahi Shimbun]
I really don’t understand the whole bitcoin trend, but obviously the North Koreans do because they continue to hack and make money from it:
South Korea’s spy agency suspects North Korea might be involved in recent hacking incidents related to cryptocurrency, according to sources on Saturday.
The National Intelligence Service (NIS) is said to have secured evidence that the North was involved in stealing the personal information of some 30,000 people from Bithumb, the country’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange, back in June, as well as robbing virtual money at another exchange Coinis in September.
The NIS reportedly confirmed that the same code used by Lazarus, a group accused of being behind the 2014 Sony hack, was used in the previous two cases.
The evidence is said to have been passed to the prosecution for further investigation. The Supreme Prosecutors’ Office has been handling the former case, while the latter is being taken care of by local police. [Yonhap]
Two South Korean journalists who were injured during a scuffle with Chinese security guards return home in wheelchairs on Dec. 15, 2017. The scuffle broke out a day earlier when the photojournalists were covering a business function attended by President Moon Jae-in hours before his summit with Xi Jinping. (Yonhap)
