Here is what strategist Edward Luttwak has to say about conducting a military strike against North Korea:
Edward Luttwak
One mistaken reason to avoid attacking North Korea is the fear of direct retaliation. The U.S. intelligence community has reportedly claimed that North Korea already has ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads that can reach as far as the United States. But this is almost certainly an exaggeration, or rather an anticipation of a future that could still be averted by prompt action. The first North Korean nuclear device that could potentially be miniaturized into a warhead for a long-range ballistic missile was tested on September 3, 2017, while its first full-scale ICBM was only tested on November 28, 2017. If the North Koreans have managed to complete the full-scale engineering development and initial production of operational ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads in the short time since then — and on their tiny total budget — then their mastery of science and engineering would be entirely unprecedented and utterly phenomenal. It is altogether more likely that they have yet to match warheads and missiles into an operational weapon.
It’s true that North Korea could retaliate for any attack by using its conventional rocket artillery against the South Korean capital of Seoul and its surroundings, where almost 20 million inhabitants live within 35 miles of the armistice line. U.S. military officers have cited the fear of a “sea of fire” to justify inaction. But this vulnerability should not paralyze U.S. policy for one simple reason: It is very largely self-inflicted.
When then-U.S. President Jimmy Carter decided to withdraw all U.S. Army troops from South Korea 40 years ago (ultimately a division was left behind), the defense advisors brought in to help — including myself — urged the Korean government to move its ministries and bureaucrats well away from the country’s northern border and to give strong relocation incentives to private companies. South Korea was also told to mandate proper shelters, as in Zurich for example, where every new building must have its own (under bombardment, casualties increase dramatically if people leave their homes to seek shelter). In recent years, moreover, South Korea has had the option of importing, at moderate cost, Iron Dome batteries, which are produced by both Israel and the United States, that would be capable of intercepting 95 percent of North Korean rockets headed to inhabited structures.
But over these past four decades, South Korean governments have done practically nothing along these lines. The 3,257 officially listed “shelters” in the Seoul area are nothing more than underground shopping malls, subway stations, and hotel parking lots without any stocks of food or water, medical kits or gas masks. As for importing Iron Dome batteries, the South Koreans have preferred to spend their money on developing a bomber aimed at Japan. [Foreign Policy]
You can read more at the link, but he believes that possible retaliation against Seoul should not influence US decision making because it is a problem caused by ROK governmental irresponsibility over the decades.
HOW EXCITED ARE SOUTH KOREANS ABOUT THESE N-S TALKS EH Acc to live search rankings not as excited as about some actress, some actor, a girl group, an actress, a boy band, college acceptance rates, the UAE, an actress, a pickup truck, a drama… tomorrow's weather… pic.twitter.com/yYuYqO7Zq2
Adm. Um Hyun-seong (R), South Korea’s chief of naval operations, poses for a photo with Rear Adm. Brad Cooper, the outgoing commander of the U.S. Naval Forces Korea, after giving Cooper a medal at a ceremony in Seoul on Jan. 9, 2018, in this photo released by the Navy. Cooper was given the Cheonsu Medal, the third-highest honor in the five-tier Order of National Security Merit, in recognition of his contribution to the alliance between the two countries. (Yonhap)
Here is the latest on the comfort women issue between Korea and Japan:
Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha announces in a press conference Tuesday that South Korea will not seek a renegotiation of a controversial 2015 deal it reached with Japan to settle the issue of women forced into sexual servitude for Japanese troops before and during World War II. [YONHAP]Seoul does not plan to scrap or renegotiate the 2015 bilateral deal on the so-called comfort women, announced Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha Tuesday, though she underscored that the agreement is not a true resolution to the issue of Japan’s wartime sexual slavery.
The Korean government also plans to raise a fund equivalent to the 1 billion yen ($8.87 million) transferred by Tokyo to a foundation formed under the 2015 agreement for the victims of the Japanese Imperial Army’s forced recruitment of young women into sexual slavery before and during World War II, who are euphemistically referred to as comfort women.
“It is an undeniable fact that that the 2015 deal was an official agreement reached between the two countries, and we will not demand a renegotiation from the Japanese government,” Kang told reporters at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Seoul.
The decision was reached after a Foreign Ministry task force spent months reviewing the negotiating process and contents of the 2015 deal, gathering survivors’ viewpoints and taking into consideration Korea-Japan relations, Kang added.
The two countries’ foreign ministries struck a deal on Dec. 28, 2015 to resolve the comfort women issue, which included an apology by the Japanese government and a 1 billion yen fund for the victims. The agreement provoked an immediate backlash from some survivors and civic organizations, who claimed Japan should take clearer legal responsibility by paying reparations.
The Korean Foreign Ministry launched a nine-member task force at the end of July comprised of foreign affairs officials and experts in Korea-Japan relations, international law and human rights. The task force was charged with assessing how the deal was reached and to pay more attention to the viewpoints of the victims, who had expressed disappointment at being left out of the negotiation process by the Park Geun-hye administration.
President Moon Jae-in has emphasized that the agreement is not accepted by the general public in Korea and called it “flawed.”
While Seoul does not plan to renegotiate or scrap the deal, Kang encouraged Japan to “accept the truth as it is, according to universally-accepted standards,” to help restore the honor and dignity of the victims and heal the wounds in their hearts.
“What the victims all wish for is a genuine apology [of Japan’s] own accord,” Kang added. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but I think the Japanese public has probably hit apology fatigue with all the demands for more apologies after their government has already made a number of apologies. Prime Minister Abe could apologize again and commit seppuku on top of Namsan and there would still be people complaining for more apologies.
That is why I have long believed that if Japanese Prime Minister Abe was really clever he should apologize for war time sexual slavery again, but this time in a large public speech to draw maximum media attention. During this speech then announce that Japan to atone for its past sins would become a champion of women’s rights beginning with the plight of modern day sexual slavery of North Korean women in China that both the South Korean and Chinese governments choose to ignore.
North Korean women trafficked in the sex industry in China are the modern day comfort women that the Chinese and South Koreans do nothing to stop. Japan becoming an advocate for these women would expose the current hypocrisy of their critics on this issue.
Another one of these long term anti-US issues has come back up again:
Leaders of Korea Exchange Bank’s union attempt to enter the building of the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Seoul on Nov. 18, 2011, as the FSC holds a meeting to discuss whether to order Lone Star Funds to sell most of its stake in Korea Exchange Bank. The workers are calling for the authorities to impose a punitive measure against Lone Star’s stake sale, such as ordering the fund to sell its share on the market, in a bid to prevent the buyout fund from pocketing more than twice the money it spent on purchasing KEB stocks.
Lawyers for a Democratic Society (LDS) sent a letter to the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), Tuesday, demanding a speedy settlement of the dispute between the Korean government and the U.S. buyout fund Lone Star Funds over the sale of the Korea Exchange Bank (KEB).
“The process of the legal battle worth 5 trillion won ($4.68 billion) has been shrouded in secrecy since 2012, so we requested rapid processing under the principle of transparency,” Song Ki-ho, the chairman of the international trade committee at the LDS, told the Korea Times.
The nongovernmental organization has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council.
In 2012, Lone Star filed a request with the ICSID, claiming the Korean government should compensate it for the “belated” approval of its sale of its KEB stake to Hana Financial and return the taxes it paid during the delay.
The global private equity firm acquired a 51.02 percent stake in KEB from a German bank in 2003, but exited Korea in 2012 after selling the stake and gaining about 4.9 trillion won in profit. (….)
Observers said the ruling will come around March this year and note the Korean government may have to pay Lone Star hundreds of billions of won in compensation. Some point out the government may claim a part of the money from Jun Kwang-woo, a former chairman of the Financial Services Commission. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but basically the crime Lone Star made was that it made too much money in Korea and then tried to take its profits outside the country. Their sale of the Korea Exchange Bank led to large protests which caused the government to try and stop the sale any way it can.
Nearly 1,200 foreigners are “living” on the easternmost Dokdo island, according to data released on Sunday.
The foreigners are among 36,000 “honorary residents” recognized by the Dokdo management office on Ulleung Island, an inhabited island west of Dokdo.
They do not actually live there, but are documented as residents in a promotional campaign for the island.
Since 2010, the office has issued “honorary Dokdo residency” to certificate-seeking visitors regardless of nationality to promote South Korea’s sovereignty over Dokdo. [Korea Times]
I went to Dokdo before 2010 and thus was not offered honorary residence on the island. Personally I think it is pretty stupid to accept an honorary residence from some place I would never want to live at.
Chanel A says Red Cloud was seen in last week of December & when this program aired on Jan 3rd, was apparently still there. This is supposedly the picture taken of Red Cloud while docked in Busan. That's Busan alright: that bridge is Busandaegyo Bridge that connects to Youngdogu. pic.twitter.com/tF5so6JM13
Models show off Samsung Electronics Co.’s modular TV, dubbed “The Wall,” at a convention center in Las Vegas on Jan. 7, 2018, two days ahead of the opening of the Consumer Electronics Show. The 146-inch TV, which Samsung says is the first of its kind in the world, uses MicroLED technology to produce its picture. (Yonhap)
After reading this article I was surprised to learn that these companies that use your DNA to trace your ancestry release this information to outside groups for their own initiatives:
This composite photo shows Matthew Suh, left holding his daughter, and his birth father, retired Army Capt. Walter Rettberg.
At 68, retired Army Capt. Walter Rettberg thought he was done having children. Then he decided to trace his family tree with a DNA-testing kit and found Matthew.
Matthew Suh was a baby in South Korea when he was adopted nearly 40 years ago by an American couple. He grew up longing to find his biological mother but never thought about searching for his father because it seemed an impossible task.
All he knew was that his father had been an American soldier serving in South Korea.
Enter 325 Kamra, a U.S. nonprofit that’s building a DNA database to help South Korean adoptees find their birth parents, including U.S. military veterans.
In many cases, troops rotating through the country didn’t know the women they had sex with became pregnant, so the group is offering free DNA kits to all vets and their descendants.
“So many of them have been stationed here for a long time,” said Maria Savage, director of the group’s South Korea operation that launched this year. “So if they remember any encounters that they had then that’s enough for us.”
The DNA will help even if the vets didn’t father children, because it might lead to another relative who did, she said. [Stars & Stripes]
The Kim regime has officially agreed to participate in the upcoming Winter Olympics:
This photo, taken by the Joint Press Corps on Jan. 9, 2018, shows South Korea’s chief delegate Cho Myoung-gyon (L) shaking hands with his North Korean counterpart Ri Son-gwon before holdinghigh-level talks between South and North Korea. (Yonhap)
North Korea on Tuesday accepted Seoul’s proposal to hold military talks to reduce tensions and agreed to send a delegation to next month’s Winter Olympics in the South, according to a joint press statement issued after their high-level talks.
In their first formal dialogue in two years at the border village of Panmunjom, they also agreed to reactivate cooperation and exchanges through diverse levels of talks including a high-level meeting, Seoul officials said.
The agreement marked a major breakthrough in the years of frosty ties between the two countries and in last year’s heightened tensions over the North’s nuclear and missile provocations.
North Korea offered to send high-ranking officials, cheerleaders, performing artists, taekwondo demonstration teams and journalists in addition to athletes. The South promised to provide them with necessary conveniences.
They will hold working-level talks to further discuss details of the North’s participation. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but those of us who have watched North Korea for years know they are not participating in the Winter Olympics out of good will. There will undoubtedly be a bill to be paid by the South. One way the South may end up paying is if the North Koreans demand inflated travel costs:
North Korea’s participation in the Pyeongchang Olympics will require agreements over a series of logistics issues, such as how to transport the North Korean delegation to the host city, where to accomodate them and who will ultimately cover the bill. [Newsweek]
Why should the South pay for the Kim regime to attend the Olympics? It should be the responsibility of the Kim regime to pay their own way like all the other countries. If the North Koreans have enough money to lob missiles everywhere and set off nuclear bombs they have enough money to cover travel and lodging for their delegation going to the Winter Olympics.
If the ROK government gives in to covering travel and lodging costs I hope President Trump tweets that he will send the ROK government the US’s travel bill as well.
