A ROK Drop favorite Tom Coyner explains the “wedge theory” in a recent article in the Joong Ang Ilbo:
Tom Coyner
If Washington affairs are unpredictable, the same can be said about the entirety of the Korean Peninsula. As such, there are various ideas and theories of what is the fundamental thinking and strategy of North Korea. The most likely scenario being played out is the so-called wedge theory. Many scholars disagree, but I subscribe to it as the most likely explanation for both obvious and insidious reasons.
North Korea is unintentionally serving China’s geopolitical interests. First and most obviously, it serves as a physical barrier between China’s capital and U.S. forces based in South Korea. More controversially, North Korea’s nuclear program is not being designed to start a nuclear exchange unless absolutely necessary. Rather, its weapons are like other nations’ nukes. The weapons are meant as deterrents. But unlike other nations’ arsenals, the DPRK’s nukes are serving the hegemonic interests of its neighbor, China. (…..)
Many North Korea watchers believe the real aim of the DPRK nukes is to threaten the U.S. and intimidate Washington out of its ironclad guarantee to come to the aid of Seoul under all circumstances. Which is to say, be able to challenge the current or future American president into deciding whether to stand by Seoul or risk having one of America’s cities be nuked. Of course, such a scenario would lead to the total destruction of North Korea by a vengeful America. But beyond simply living with a nuclear DPRK, all military scenarios are high risk, including ending with the ultimate destruction of North Korea. (……..)
Consequently, the wedge theory is the most plausible. If the U.S. backs away from its 100 percent support of South Korea, North Korea can further its political agenda to ultimately achieve a peace treaty leading to confederation without need for U.S. forces. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but I have long believed that the Kim regime and the Chinese government have a long term goal of driving a wedge between the US and the ROK. That is what is behind the THAAD retaliation against South Korea by the Chinese government. They know THAAD is not a threat to them, but it is an issue they can use to drive a wedge between the US and the ROK. Likewise that is what North Korea is to the Chinese, yet another issue to drive a wedge between the US and the ROK.
The Washington Post has an interesting in-depth update on the key players from the infamous “Nut-Rage” incident in South Korea:
Cho Hyun-ah
Cho Hyun-ah, the Korean Air heiress who achieved global notoriety in the 2014 “nut rage” incident, returned to the public eye last month, accompanying her father as he ran with the Olympic torch when the relay passed through Seoul.
Korean Air is an official partner of the Winter Games, which open in PyeongChang on Friday, and Cho’s father is the chairman of the company — called “owner” in Korean because, although it is publicly listed, the company is in many ways still operated like a family business.
Running with her father and sister, Cho wore an official gray PyeongChang tracksuit and a smile.
Park Chang-jin is also trying to put on a smile these days. He was the chief flight attendant on Korean Air Flight 86 from New York to Seoul the day of the fracas over nut service in the first-class cabin, and his life has not been the same since.
“I loved my job, but then suddenly this incident with Ms. Cho happened,” Park said in an interview in Seoul. “I lost everything at that moment because someone who had power over me had this emotional outburst.” (…..)
When Park returned to work, he had to renew all his qualifications after more than a year off. He was repeatedly given failing grades on language tests — in Korean and in English — and began to suspect it was deliberate. He was assigned to economy class and often given the most menial tasks, including cleaning the toilets. [Washington Post]
You can read the rest at the link, but Cho’s sister has taken over her responsibilities at Korea Air and is reportedly the one leading the revenge against the flight attendant Park Chang-jin.
It is pretty clear that the Kim regime is using the Winter Olympics to set a precedent for other countries to point to in order violate United Nations sanctions:
Both Kim Yo-jung and Choe Hwi are sanctioned by the United States for human rights abuses. Kim because she is “part of the agency in North Korea who’s responsible for propaganda, for censorship, controlling information so that the people of the country do not know about the rest of the world,” says the Treasury Department. Choe is subject to United Nations sanctions, as well, which actually bar him from leaving his country.
Choe is “First Vice Director of the Workers’ Party of Korea Propaganda and Agitation Department, which controls all Democratic People’s Republic of Korea media and is used by the government to control the public,” the United Nations says. The South Korean government is reportedly trying to get an exemption to the travel ban for the Olympics from the UN Security Council. [Weekly Standard]
A group of people stages a rally in Donghae, Gangwon Province, on Feb. 6, 2018, as the North Korean ship Mangyongbong-92 carrying the North’s Samjiyon art troupe arrived at the eastern port city. They opposed North Korea’s participation in the PyeongChang Olympics. (Yonhap)
While North Korea’s propaganda troop is busy in South Korea promoting the Kim regime to an international audience, back in Pyongyang, Kim Jong-un was busy promoting his rule domestically with a military parade:
North Korea has unveiled video footage of its massive military parade held in Pyongyang on Thursday to mark the 70th anniversary of its military.
North Korea has unveiled video footage of its massive military parade held in Pyongyang on Thursday to mark the 70th anniversary of its military.
The edited clips broadcast by the North’s state-run Korean Central Television later in the day showed a host of intercontinental ballistic missiles that are believed to be able to strike the U.S. mainland, including the Hwasong-15, Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-12, all of which the regime successfully test-launched last year.
The North also displayed its solid-fuel Pukguksong-2 ballistic missile in an apparent bid to show off what it claims is the completion of its nuclear forces.
The North’s military forces were smaller in scale than previous years possibly due to the fallout from strengthened international sanctions against the country’s nuclear and missile programs.
However, many observers suspect the downsizing was intentional as Pyongyang seeks to avoid international criticism ahead of the Winter Olympics set to kick off in South Korea on Friday.
Unlike past years, the parade was not broadcast live and foreign journalists were not allowed to cover the event. [KBS Global]
For soldiers stationed at Camp Humphreys they now have the honor of shopping at the US military’s largest overseas commissary:
The U.S. military’s largest overseas commissary officially opened for business Wednesday at the Eighth Army’s new home on the Korean Peninsula.
The $15.1 million, 89,491-square-foot store is four and a half times the size of Camp Humphreys’ old commissary, which had reached its limit in supporting a population that has ballooned from 7,000 to 26,000 and will soon peak to more than 40,000.
“This is the best commissary I’ve ever seen and I’ve been around for a long time,” Eighth Army commander Lt. Gen. Michael Bills said during a ribbon-cutting ceremony on Wednesday. “This is a work of art.”
As shoppers checked out the store for the first time, a taekwondo demonstration team kicked wooden planks in front of stacks of pudding boxes and South Korean girls in traditional dress danced in the aisles. [Stars and Stripes]
I guess Kim Jong-un wanted his sister to personally attend the Winter Olympics and relay his extortion demands to the ROK government:
Kim Yo-jong (2nd from R) is featured by the North’s television news broadcast, released on Feb. 6, 2018, showing ranking officials as they see off a North Korean art troupe departing for South Korea. (Yonhap)
Kim Jong-un’s dear sister, Kim Yo-jong, is set to become the first member of North Korea’s ruling dynasty to set foot in the rival South this week.
The Unification Ministry in Seoul announced Wednesday that Kim Yo-jong, presumed to be aged about 30, will be part of a high-ranking government delegation attending the Winter Olympic opening ceremony slated for Friday.
The team will be led by Kim Yong-nam, the nominal head of state. Kim Yo-jong is widely believed to be powerful and close enough to the leader to directly represent his views.
Kim’s visit could further boost the reconciliatory mood between the Koreas. Seoul wants to pave the way for the restoration of relations and possibly to talks for the denuclearization of the North.
Kim’s high status in the North Korean leadership and close blood tie with the leader raised expectations that she may serve as the reclusive brother’s representative to the South Korean government. [Yonhap]
In the middle of South Korea, there is a woman raising two teenagers who calls herself an ordinary housewife. Except 30 years ago, she was an elite North Korean agent who bombed an airplane in an attempt to derail the '88 Seoul Olympics. My story — https://t.co/AKXhy0Z1ko
Condoms are placed on a table for free distribution at the Olympic Village in Gangneung, a sub-host city of the upcoming PyeongChang Winter Olympics, on Feb. 6, 2018. (Yonhap)