Ahn Cheol-soo gives remarks at a meeting of the minor opposition Bareunmirae Party in Seoul on March 19, 2018. Ahn, a former presidential contender, had stepped out of the political stage in February after his party merged with another minor political party to form what is now Bareunmirae. Ahn returned to party affairs as head of a committee for recruiting new party members. (Yonhap)
Here is what a Professor John Mearsheimer at the University of Chicago has to say about the possibility of North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons:
There’s no way North Korea would give up its nuclear weapons because they have no reason to believe the United States will implement any denuclearization deal between them, John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago well known for his realist views on international politics, said Tuesday.
“North Korea is not going to give up its nuclear weapons and China will not push North Koreans to do so. The reason is that in international politics, you could never trust anybody because you cannot be certain of what their intentions are,” the professor said in a lecture hosted by the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies in Seoul.
“There’s no way North Koreans can trust the U.S. — they give up their nuclear weapons because the U.S. might welsh on the deal,” the professor said, referring to the U.S.’ unsuccessful denuclearization deals with former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and Iran. “If you were North Koreans, would you trust Donald Trump? Would you trust any American presidents?
“I can’t think of a country that needs nuclear weapons more than North Koreans because you all know that the U.S. is into a regime change. Donald Trump has been talking about a regime change in North Korea,” Mearsheimer said.
“Give up their nuclear weapons? I don’t think so, especially as security competition heats up in East Asia. You wanna hang on to those weapons.” [Yonhap]
I think an important distinction to draw here is that the nuclear weapons were likely not developed to protect the North Korean government from an American regime change attempt. North Korea’s conventional weapons have been able to prevent any regime change on the peninsula despite assassination attempts on ROK presidents, shooting down of a US aircraft, kidnappings, terrorist bombings, artillery shellings, etc. These past incidents would have led to a regime change war in most other areas in the world, but not with North Korea because of the cost of civilian casualties on Seoul.
If Muammar Gaddafi had the ability to kill millions of people in Rome for example with conventional weapons, his overthrow by international forces would have never happened. Unlike Gaddafi and other dictators that have been overthrown, geography has aided the North Koreans by having a huge metropolitan area within striking distance of their conventional artillery, they don’t need nukes to threaten Seoul, they do need them to threaten the United States.
The Kim regime’s nuclear weapons were likely developed to threaten US cities which then increases their bargaining position during negotiations. This is what appears to be happening now. I would say that at best North Korea may sign an agreement that stops development of new nuclear weapons, but lets them keep a few on hand. What I think the US would have more success on is having them scrap their ICBM program. Without an ICBM North Korea cannot threaten US cities.
Such an agreement would still leave the Kim regime a few nuclear weapons to protect them not from the US, but from any Chinese regime change attempts. There has long been a distrust of the Chinese by the Kim regime that stretches back to the Korean War. Nuclear weapons are the ultimate insurance policy against any Chinese adventurism against North Korea. The nuclear weapons also gives them an advantage over their South Korean rivals that they can continue to use as leverage during future provocation cycles and negotiations. So ultimately I agree with Professor Mearsheimer that North Korea is not going to give up their nuclear weapons, just for different reasons.
It appears the Kim regime plans to use these three Americans as bargaining chips as part of the upcoming negotiations before the Kim-Trump summit:
The release of three U.S. citizens held in North Korea should not be a condition for the planned summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Sweden’s foreign minister said on Monday.
The United States has no embassy in Pyongyang and relies on Sweden, the so-called U.S. protecting power there, to do consular work, especially to help Americans in trouble.
Asked about the three Americans, Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom said: “I don’t want to have those elements involved in all of this … this is not a time to put up a lot of conditions and preconditions.”
The State Department’s recently retired envoy for North Korea said on Thursday he had urged North Korea to send a positive signal by releasing Kim Dong Chul, Kim Hak Song and Kim Sang-duk before the summit. [Reuters]
Another example of a concession made to North Korea without the Kim regime even asking:
The military is toning down a handover ceremony for a batch of new F-35A state-of-the-art fighters from the U.S. as an inter-Korean summit looms. The jets, which cost W7.3 trillion, are intended to counter the nuclear and missile threat from North Korea (US$1=W1,067).
The event will be held at the Lockheed Martin plant in Fort Worth, Texas on March 28. Air Force Chief of Staff Lee Wang-keun and Jeon Jei-guk, the chief of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, both abruptly canceled plans to attend.
“Neither can attend the ceremony,” a military spokesman said. “Lee must stay in the country to maintain military preparedness while [President Moon Jae-in] is on an overseas trip, and Jeon will accompany the president.” [Chosun Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but you would at least think the ROK government would be honest and just say no one is attending in order to not upset North Korea instead of the cover story they are using.
By the way Seoul has bought 40 of the F-35A’s at a cost of 120 billion won a piece.
South Korean media are reporting that the three Americans detained in North Korea will soon be released. Boy, I hope they're right. Here's the story I wrote about the three men: https://t.co/Kw3NOrzPVJpic.twitter.com/7LjgVa6dEd
So does this mean that the US Fires Brigade will no longer be needed?:
South Korea plans to set up a new guided missile unit that can take down North Korea‘s long-range artillery sites.
Local broadcaster KBS reported that the South Korean army will combine its first and third military headquarters to launch a new ground operation command in October.
Under the new command, an artillery force will be established and armed with tactical ground-to-ground guided missiles that are capable of striking large targets within a short period of time.
A single launch pad can fire four missiles in a matter of seconds, with the rockets capable of traveling more than 93 miles.
Equipped with a precision guidance function, the missiles are said to be ideal for targeting North Korea’s long-range artillery concentrated along the military demarcation line.
Experts say the artillery brigade will also be able to curb enemy threats at an early stage and thermobaric weapons attached onto the warheads could potentially incinerate everything inside a targeted mineshaft. [UPI]
Even if Kim Jong-un supposedly gave his word to seek denuclearization he could still very easily blame the ROK and the US for some made up reason to scrap any denuclearization deal that is made:
This AP file photo shows South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha. (Yonhap)
South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha expressed confidence in North Korea’s commitment to abandon its nuclear weapons program, saying the regime’s leader gave “his word.”
This month North Korean leader Kim Jong-un conveyed in a verbal message to U.S. President Donald Trump that he is committed to denuclearization and would stop all nuclear and missile tests. He also invited Trump to a summit, and the U.S. president accepted the offer.
“He has given his word,” Kang told U.S. broadcaster CBS in an interview filmed Saturday and aired Sunday. “But the significance of his word is quite weighty in the sense that this is the first time that the words came directly from the North Korean supreme leader himself. And that has never been done before.” [Yonhap]
In my opinion these are two very good candidates for the position of US ambassador to South Korea. It will be interesting to see who President Trump picks:
Gen. James Thurmond / Congressman Ed Royce
A retired US Army general and the chairman of the US house foreign affairs committee have emerged as candidates to become US President Donald Trump’s ambassador to Seoul.
Retired US Army General James Thurman and outgoing Republican Representative Edward Royce are under consideration for the ambassadorship, two sources with knowledge of the matter told the South China Morning Post.
The pair emerged as candidates after the White House rejected presumptive nominee Victor Cha, a veteran Korean expert and former National Security Council official, because of his unwillingness to endorse a preliminary strike strategy on North Korea.
Thurman, 64, was a member of US Vice President Mike Pence’s delegation to the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics held in Pyeongchang, South Korea in early February. His presence was “a pretty good sign he is under consideration [for the ambassadorship],” according to one of the sources. [Korea Times]
