I have maintained that the USFK cost sharing talks will likely only be resolved as part of a North Korea denuclearization deal. If President Trump signs a peace treaty to end the Korean War and drops sanctions on North Korea, the Moon administration will likely give him what he wants on the cost sharing deal:

As Seoul and Washington are currently deadlocked in negotiations to renew their bilateral defense cost-sharing agreement, the next level of talks will likely happen at a higher level. 

“An 11th round of [the current] talks likely won’t be scheduled,” a high-level Korean government official told reporters Thursday. “Instead, it may be negotiated at a higher level.”

On the possibility of the deal on sharing the cost of stationing of U.S. troops in Korea then being negotiated between Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump, the official said, “all possibilities are open.”

Since last March, Seoul and Washington have been negotiating the renewal of the bilateral Special Measures Agreement (SMA), a multiyear cost-sharing deal under the Status of Forces Agreement, or SOFA, to maintain the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK). 

Chang Won-sam has led the Korean delegation for the 10th SMA, while the U.S. delegation has been led by Timothy Betts, acting deputy assistant secretary for plans, programs and operations at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs.

The tenth round of talks took place mid-December, but the two sides failed to narrow their differences before the current deal expired on Dec. 31. As the two sides have been unable to resolve their differences, diplomatic sources have indicated that the issue now needs to be solved by the two leaders.

The government official, however, said that “various channels of negotiations for the cost-sharing deal are being considered,” including between ambassadors, the Blue House National Security Office and White House National Security Council, as well as between South Korea’s foreign minister and U.S. secretary of state.

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

This is so anti-Black and imperialist, I can't even. In fact, I'd argue that K-pop, esp the inclusion of rap, is in many ways Koreans adapting Black musical forms as a reaction to their own experiences with racist colonial oppression by Japan. https://t.co/RL1b3ffpxS

— Chanda Prescod-Weinstein 🙅🏽‍♀️ 🇧🇧🌈 (@IBJIYONGI) January 9, 2019

This is all an attempt by the Moon administration to deflect criticism from conservative critics in South Korea and the US:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is well aware that the United States Forces Korea (USFK) will continue to be stationed in the South despite his ongoing efforts for the regime’s denuclearization, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said in a televised New Year’s press conference, Thursday.

“Kim Jong-un clearly understands the North’s denuclearization has nothing to do with the presence of the USFK in the South, viewing its existence as part of the security alliance between Seoul and Washington,” Moon said.

The remark came amid lingering concerns that North Korea may demand the withdrawal of the USFK in the future, as it will be difficult for the South to justify U.S. troops’ continuing presence here after the possible declaration of the end to the 1950-53 Korean War.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but the rhetoric of ending the Korean War has been going on for months because the Kim regime wants the peace treaty in order to challenge the legitimacy of the military presence in South Korea.  If there is peace why is USFK needed?

President Moon is saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed, to include claiming Kim Jong-un understands this as well. However, this is likely just rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against a peace treaty.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he openly advocated for a USFK withdrawal, that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju.  President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.

Please leave anything you want to discuss in the comments section.

Someone should have asked the ROK defense minister what he meant by countering threats in all directions? Does he Japan is a military threat against South Korea?:

South Korea will increase defense spending by an average of 7.5 percent each year over the next five years with a focus on building “independent capabilities to counter threats from all directions,” Seoul’s defense ministry said Friday.
The ministry announced its defense blueprint for the 2019-2023 period, during which it wants to spend 270.7 trillion won (US$241.9 billion) — 94.1 trillion won on improving defense capabilities and the rest on managing troops, equipment and facilities. 
Under the plan, the ministry seeks to increase the country’s defense budget, which stands at 46.7 trillion won this year, to 50.3 trillion won for 2020, 54.1 trillion won for 2021, 57.8 trillion won for 2022 and 61.8 trillion won for 2023.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

The New York Times has taken notice of how progressive policies that have been championed in the US have not worked in South Korea:

INCHEON, South Korea — As President Trump leads a drive to slash taxes and pare back regulation, one major economy is taking a different approach. 
Under President Moon Jae-in, South Korea has raised taxes and the minimum wage in the name of economic growth. So far, it hasn’t worked out as planned.
Growth has slowed, unemployment has risen and small-business owners like Moon Seung are complaining. Mr. Moon, founder of an auto parts maker called Dasung in Incheon, an industrial town near Seoul, says his labor costs were up an extra 3 percent last year after the minimum wage rose to 7,530 Korean won, or about $6.70, an hour. That may not sound like much, but it ate into his razor-thin profit margin and prompted him to stop hiring.

“We can’t take it,” Mr. Moon said. “This is a problem not just for the employers, but for the employees.”

NY Times

You can read the rest at the link.

I wonder if this Chinese envoy realizes the irony of his statement when China currently has tens of thousands of ethnic Uighur in internment camps because they are Muslims:

Chinese ambassador Lu Shaye has accused Canada of applying a double standard, and has decried what he sees as “Western egotism and white supremacy” in the treatment of detained Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou.
China’s envoy to Canada penned a Jan. 9 column in The Hill Times, a twice-weekly Ottawa publication that focuses on parliamentary affairs, in which he harshly criticizes Canada for demanding the release of two jailed Canadians while detaining Ms. Meng.
“It’s understandable that these Canadians are concerned about their own citizens. But have they shown any concern or sympathy for [Ms.] Meng after she was illegally detained and deprived of freedom?” Mr. Lu wrote.
China has imprisoned former Canadian diplomat Michael Kovrig and entrepreneur Michael Spavor in what appears to be retaliation for Canada’s arrest of Ms. Meng for extradition to the United States to face allegations of bank fraud related to U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Globe and Mail

You can read more at the link.

Moon Jae-in at a press conference: #SouthKorea's "gap btwn the wealthy & the poor and inequality have become the worst in the world." On what basis? Is that what his new head of Korea Statistics said? After all, Moon fired his predecessor for being too accurate. https://t.co/UgXM2G4osr

— Tara O (@DrTaraO) January 11, 2019