Wee Sung-ho (R), president of the Korea National Defense University (KNDU), and Frederick Padilla, president of the National Defense University of the U.S., shake hands after signing a memorandum of understanding in Seoul on Feb. 24, 2016, for academic exchanges between their institutions. The agreement covers exchanges of teaching staff and students, conducting joint studies and sharing of research findings. (Photo courtesy of KNDU) (Yonhap)
It looks like the ROK and the US are looking to make a strong statement to North Korea on the status of the US-ROK alliance:
The annual Korea-U.S. joint exercises will be the largest ever in terms of both “quality and quantity,” Defense Minister Han Min-goo told Saenuri Party officials at the National Assembly on Thursday.
Twice as many U.S. troops and double the equipment as before, or about 15,000 U.S. troops and hardware like a combat aviation brigade, a Marine mobile brigade, an aircraft carrier fleet, a nuclear-powered submarine fleet, and aerial refueling tankers, will be participating in the drills dubbed “Key Resolve/Foal Eagle.”
On the Korean side, the troop numbers will be greater by half than usual at 290,000 personnel, including special operations forces, Army corps in the front-line areas, and Army divisions in the rear areas.
The exercises are aimed at ensuring that troop reinforcements from the mainland U.S. are integrated smoothly on the Korean Peninsula in an emergency. [Chosun Ilbo]
It looks like the ruling Saenuri party in South Korea is trying to get out ahead of the Korean left by addressing any environmental concerns with THAAD early in the deployment decision making cycle. This is actually a good play by the ruling party because like I predicted before environmental and safety concerns is a typical left wing tactic in Korea to attack the US military with and the THAAD issue is a perfect time to use it again:
Lee Cheol-woo, also a Saenuri lawmaker, agreed with Kim Jae-won although he underscored a need to settle public concerns on health and security risks associated with THAAD.
“The villagers living in the neighborhoods cited as the sites for THAAD deployment are worried about possible exposure to strong electromagnetic radiation emitted from THAAD radar as well as environmental pollution,” Lee said. “It will be important to settle such concerns before setting up a THAAD battery.” [Korea Times]
I am sure a lot of due diligence will be done by USFK to ensure the proper military location for the THAAD system is chosen, but I would have to think political concerns have to weigh into the deployment location as well. If land has to acquired to deploy the system we could see a repeat of what happened in 2005 when land had to be acquired for the Camp Humphreys expansion. The Korean left would love to start another movement like that to stop the THAAD deployment. If the deployment can happen with no land needing to be acquired I would expect the Korean left to next claim the THAAD hurts the environment in some way. So hopefully USFK has all their environmental impact studies dusted off and ready to go to counter such claims:
A heated dispute is underway regarding possible sites to locate a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery with South Korea and the United States scheduled to begin talks as early as this week on whether the missile-defense system is to be deployed.
Where the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) will locate the THAAD unit involves a variety of conflicting matters ranging from reactions from neighboring countries including China, along with possible safety and environmental threats to nearby residents.
Locations cited as possible sites for THAAD include Pyeongtaek in Gyeonggi Province, Daegu, and Waegwan in North Gyeongsang Province. The USFK’s Camp Humphreys is located at Pyeongtaek, Camp Walker in Daegu and Camp Carroll at Waegwan, outside of Daegu.
Other candidate sites include Wonju in Gangwon Province and Gunsan in North Jeolla Province.
Defense Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun said during a media briefing, Monday, that an allies’ joint working-level group will conduct their review of candidate areas before deciding on a site after consideration of all related matters.
“The military utility of the USFK will be considered as the most important aspect because the THAAD will be operated by the USFK,” he said. “Allies will choose an optimal location from which the military can shoot down North Korean missiles.” [Korea Times]
You can read the rest at the link, but the Daegu area is the district for ruling party member Rep. Yoo Seong-min who has been a strong supporter for the deployment of THAAD to Korea. Having strong political support in the region should help counter any Korean left wing attempt to stop the deployment. It will be interesting to see how this turns out.
The US has used another show force against the Kim regime by doing a fly over of South Korea with its F-22 stealth fighter aircraft:
Four U.S. F-22 stealth fighters flew low over South Korea on Wednesday in a clear show of force against North Korea, a day after South Korea’s president warned of the North’s collapse amid a festering standoff over its nuclear and missile ambitions.
The high-tech planes capable of sneaking past radar undetected were seen by an Associated Press photographer before they landed at Osan Air Base near Seoul. They were escorted by other U.S. and South Korean fighter jets.
Pyongyang will likely view the arrival of the planes flown from a U.S. base in Japan as a threat as they are an apparent display of U.S. airpower aimed at showing what the United States can do to defend its ally South Korea from potential aggression from North Korea. [Associated Press]
This just shows the level of concern the Chinese government has for their own people. An irresponsible regime in North Korea is blowing up nuclear weapons right across the border from China and the Chinese government is more outraged by a missile defense system that has no strategic impact on them or would harm their citizens:
Speaking on Saturday (Feb 13) at the Munich Security Conference, Fu said that while her country is displeased with the recent nuclear test by North Korea – formally known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea – citizens are even more concerned by the US response.
“The Chinese public is also angry about the DPRK nuclear issue, but they’re even more angry about THAAD,” Fu said, referring to the Thermal High Altitude Area Defence anti-ballistic missile system the US says it deployed to protect against North Korea.
“It covers more territory in China than in North and South Korea together.” [The Strait Times]
What Ms. Fu is saying is intentionally misleading. The THAAD radar may have a range that looks into China, but the interceptors do not because the system is designed to intercept short to medium range ballistic missiles. It has no capability against ICBMs. I wish someone would challenge the Chinese government to prove the THAAD can intercept ICBMs. If the THAAD could intercept ICBMs then why does the US have the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system fielded in Alaska and California to defend against limited ICBM attacks?
It is pretty clear the Chinese government knows this, but in my opinion they are just trying to drive a wedge between the US and the ROK. If they can pressure the ROK to stop the THAAD deployment they hope this will create animosity between the US and the ROK while demonstrating China’s increased influence. That is all that this is about and the THAAD issue is just an excuse to do this.
It is looking more and more like the deployment to THAAD to South Korea is a done deal the way the Defense Ministry is currently talking. The defense official in the article is right that THAAD has no capability against ICBMs. The US has the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system that is used to defend against ICBMs. Shooting down an ICBM requires a very large booster due to how high ICBMs fly which the THAAD does not have. The THAAD system is used to defend against short and medium range missiles which North Korea threatens the South with. THAAD does engagements at higher altitudes than the current Patriot system already deployed to the ROK. This means the ROK would have a layered defense if the THAAD misses at a higher altitude the Patriot can still engage at a lower altitude. Additionally when dealing with nuclear warheads you want to intercept them as high as possible:
The South Korean military will strategically focus on picking a candidate site for the U.S. missile defense system THAAD, rather than on a backlash from China and Russia, a high-ranking defense ministry official said Friday, as Seoul and Washington are poised to begin formal talks next week on the sensitive matter.
“Considering the stances of neighboring countries when (South Korea) picking an area to host the THAAD is not militarily (right),” the Defense Ministry official said on the condition of anonymity.
China has expressed “serious concern” over the deployment plan, which the country believes would put it within the range of the U.S. defense system. Russia is also unnerved by South Korea’s move.
The official stressed that the THAAD, if deployed in South Korea, would target North Korea alone over its growing nuclear and missile capabilities.
He also dismissed a view that South Korea is being drawn into the U.S. missile defense network.
“It does not necessarily mean South Korea joins the U.S. missile defense system,” the official said. “The THAAD does not intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles nor does it intend to defend the mainland U.S. or any other third country.” [Yonhap]
It is interesting that you don’t hear the Chinese or Russians complaining about the deployment of this Patriot battery to South Korea like you have about the THAAD battery when both systems have no capability to shoot down their ICBMs. It will also be interesting to see how long it will take before a THAAD battery is deployed to South Korea as well:
The United States temporarily deployed an additional Patriot missile battery in South Korea in response to North Korea’s nuclear test and a long-range rocket launch, ahead of talks next week to set up an even more sophisticated U.S. missile defense in a move that has worried China and Russia.
The new tough stance follows South Korea’s decision to shut down an inter-Korean factory park that had been the rival Koreas’ last major symbol of cooperation, but that Seoul said had been used by North Korea to fund its nuclear and missile programs. North Korea responded by deporting South Korean citizens, seizing South Korean assets and vowing to militarize the park. [Stars & Stripes]
If THAAD is going to be deployed to South Korea it appears it will happen pretty rapidly:
The United States hopes to deploy the THAAD missile defense system to South Korea “as quickly as possible” and the two countries will begin formal discussions on the matter “in the next few days,” the Defense Department said Monday.
“We would like to see this move as quickly as possible. We’re beginning the consultations now in the coming days with the South Koreans and we expect that this will move in an expeditious fashion,” Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook said at a briefing.
Shortly after North Korea’s long-range missile launch Sunday, South Korea and the U.S. announced they would launch formal consultations on the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system to the South to better defend against the North’s nuclear and missile threats. [Korea Times]
