Category: US-ROK Alliance

The THAAD battery already has what is called an initial operational capability, so this doesn’t stop the deployment of the THAAD battery as claimed.  All this announcement of an environmental assessment means is that the four additional launchers cannot be installed.  This ultimately means less THAAD interceptors to defend the country to appease those against the deployment:

The government will conduct a full-scale environmental study on the U.S. military’s deployment of a controversial antimissile battery in Korea, a senior security adviser to President Moon Jae-in said Thursday, stressing that the probe will delay the installment of the battery.

Chung Eui-yong, head of the National Security Office of the Blue House, addressed the latest controversy surrounding the U.S. deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or Thaad system. An investigation of top security officials from the previous administration is currently ongoing to find out if they intentionally withheld from the Moon government information on the delivery of four additional launchers for the system.

“In order to conduct a more thorough environmental-impact study, I think [the deployment] may take more time than originally planned,” Chung said. “But I cannot predict how long the environmental study will take.”

Chung made the remark as he arrived in Washington to meet with senior U.S. officials to prepare for the upcoming summit between Moon and U.S. President Donald Trump.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but does anyone else find it interesting that a one year environmental assessment needs to be done on a golf course that was dug into the top of the mountain whatever natural vegetation and wildlife there has already been developed over?  Are they going to assess the potential damage the launcher back blast area will have on the putting greens before it can be installed?

That is what opposition parties in Korea are supposedly claiming:

Since the Blue House’ probe of the incident, the Thaad deployment may have to stop for a while. The four additional launchers cannot be activated anytime soon. Public criticism of the deployment is spreading. While opposition parties believe the presidential office is attempting to sway public opinion to support a cancellation of the deployment, the Pentagon insists the deployment procedure was transparent. Our internal friction could also damage a summit in June in Washington between Moon and U.S. President Donald Trump.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but in my opinion the Blue House is looking for reasons to put the Defense Ministry on the defensive and possibly clean house.  This allows the Blue House to appease their left wing base that is against the THAAD deployment without actually cancelling it.  I would be very surprised if President Moon tries to cancel the THAAD deployment considering the ramifications to the US-ROK alliance.

Plus I think President Moon being the experienced politician he is wants negative public opinion against the deployment which he can use for upcoming cost sharing talks between the US and the ROK.  President Moon can basically counter President Trump’s demand for the ROK to pay for THAAD by saying the majority of the ROK population does not want THAAD so why should they pay for it?  This allows the ROK to get the defense benefits of THAAD without having to pay for it.

This is playing out like I expected, the Moon Jae-in administration will make protests and complaints domestically to appease their base that was against the THAAD deployment, but ultimately will not change it and just blame the last administration for deploying it:

President Moon Jae-in said Wednesday South Korea’s ongoing probe of the delivery of a U.S. missile defense system is not intended to reverse its deployment agreement between the two countries but to conduct it with appropriate domestic procedures, according to the presidential office.

Moon ordered a probe on Tuesday into the “undisclosed” delivery of four additional launchers of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system after the defense ministry failed to report it to the presidential policy advisory panel in a recent briefing.

During a meeting with visiting U.S. Senator Dick Durbin, he said South Korea will continue to host the THAAD under the correct domestic procedures.

“Procedures over THAAD are entirely domestic ones; we do not intend to change the existing decision or send a different message to the U.S.,” Moon told Durbin at the presidential office, according to presidential spokesman Park Soo-hyun.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

This phone call would have likely been much more interesting if President Trump would have repeated his demand for Seoul to pay for the deployment of the THAAD system to Korea:

U.S. President Donald Trump raised the topic of renegotiating a free trade deal with South Korea first before mentioning cooperation on the North Korean nuclear front in a recent phone conversation with Moon Jae-in, South Korea’s new president, an informed official here said Saturday.

“President Trump, during the phone conversation, first delivered congratulatory remarks, then said the FTA should be renegotiated for the mutual interest of both countries,” an official at Cheong Wa Dae, South Korea’s presidential office, told Yonhap News Agency Saturday.

Moon and Trump spoke over the phone on Wednesday, vowing to maintain close cooperation in handling North Korea’s nuclear threats.

The official, who was next to Moon as he spoke with Trump, also said the U.S. president mentioned the trade issue “in a light fashion, mentioning it on a principle level” and added that the “focus was on the North Korean nuclear issue.”

Moon reportedly did not offer a particular reply to Trump’s mentioning of renegotiating the trade deal.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Oh Young-jin over at the Korea Times seems to have a better understanding of President Trump than the rest of Korea:

Let’s calm ourselves down.

It’s exasperating to hear U.S. President Trump demand South Korea pay $1 billion for a missile interceptor owned and operated by the U.S. After all, the two allies cut a deal by which Korea provided land for a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery, while the U.S. paid for the rest ― hardware and maintenance.

It’s tempting to shout back at Trump and tell him that we don’t want it so he can take it back.

But here are some sobering questions.

Can we defend ourselves without U.S. forces? The South excels the North in the size of economy many times and is more than double it in terms of population. So the answer to this question is yes, we can.

But if so, what extra cost would we have to pay for their absence? Billions of dollars would be needed to make up for the U.S. Forces Korea with its 28,000 American troops stationed here. They serve as a tripwire to bring in bigger and more powerful reinforcements ― the so-called extended deterrence (nuclear umbrella) included ― from the U.S. in the event of a war. The tab for this is uncountable because it has worked as the bedrock for Korea’s sense of security for decades.

Would you be willing to pay that extra cost? The bulk of the budget for welfare, infrastructure and other key state affairs would have to be diverted to cover our own defense spending. This means bigger tax bills for fewer services. Then, the security void that would be created by the U.S. withdrawal would have foreign investors rethink their plans involving Korea.

THAAD can turn this chain of hypotheses into reality. (……….) Now, it is important to think of how Trumpian arithmetic works.

Trump is a “successful” businessman and showbiz celebrity.

Therefore, he shuns money-losing businesses and sticks to the “beneficiary-pays” principle. This characteristic reflects his demand for Korea’s THAAD payment as he sees the U.S. as a benefactor and Korea as a beneficiary so he thinks it is natural for Seoul to pay.  [Korea Times]

You can read the rest at the link, but Mr. Oh advocates for paying Trump off by having a pro-rated cost for use of the THAAD system each year. This gets back to my belief this whole topic is about the USFK cost sharing negotiations next year which President Trump wants the Korean government to understand they need to pay more for advanced US capabilities.

By the way I still love Mr. Oh’s email:  foolsdie5@gmail.com.  

Like I have said before President Trump’s comments about paying more for the THAAD system is setting conditions for next year’s negotiations for USFK cost sharing:

U.S. President Donald Trump should know that South Korea has already paid more than what he has billed the country for the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here, analysts said Tuesday.

Trump has insisted that Korea pay $1 billion for the anti-missile shield and his top aides also claim that the two countries should renegotiate the terms of the deployment agreement.

On top of the provision of the land for the missile defense unit, South Korea has already sustained huge damage from economic retaliation by China.

Company officials and analysts say that the value of losses Korea has suffered from retaliatory steps has to have topped $1 billion. They expect the amount to snowball to as high as $20 billion if friction over THAAD is not addressed.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

You can read more at the Korea Herald via a reader tip.

As I figured the statement made by President Trump in regards to South Korea paying for THAAD is related to upcoming US-ROK cost sharing negotiations:

National Security Adviser Gen. H.R. McMaster said Sunday that the U.S. will indeed pay for the roughly $1 billion THAAD missile defense system in South Korea, amid neighboring North Korea’s repeated ballistic test launches.

“What I told our South Korean counterpart is until any renegotiation, that the deals in place, we’ll adhere to our word,” McMaster told “Fox News Sunday.”

He spoke days after President Trump said South Korea should pay for the anti-missile system and hours after Seoul said that McMaster had assured its chief national security officer, Kim Kwan-jin, about the deal.

“The last thing I would ever do is contradict the president of the United States,” McMaster also told Fox News. “And that’s not what it was. What the president has asked us to do, is to look across all of our alliances and to have appropriate burden sharing-responsibility sharing. We’re looking at that with our great ally South Korea, we’re looking at that with NATO.”  [Fox News]

You can read more at the link.

The comment by President Trump that he wants South Korea to pay for the THAAD deployment is not going over very well in South Korea as one would expect.  Here is how many citizens feel about paying for a system intended to protect them:

“We’re already upset about THAAD being deployed in our town, and now they want us to pay for it, too? South Korea can’t pay, so just send it back to the US,” said Lim Soon-boon, 61, on Apr. 28. “At first, the US said it would be paying for the deployment, so it’s ridiculous for them to start asking us to pay for it now.” Lim is head of the women’s association in Soseong Village, Chojeon Township, Seongju County, North Gyeongsang Province, where the THAAD missile defense system is being deployed. “I’m grateful to Trump for bringing us to the realization that the US’s ultimate goal was to sell THAAD to South Korea,” said Bae Mi-yeong, 39, a Seongju resident.

On the day that US President Donald Trump asked South Korea to pay US$1 billion to deploy THAAD and South Korea’s Defense Ministry rejected the request, a group chatroom on KakaoTalk that is used by more than 800 residents of Seongju was filled with comments about “bastards selling out the country” and “morons in the Defense Ministry.”

“It seems as if not a single thing has gone right with the THAAD deployment. It doesn’t make sense for the Defense Ministry to deny that when the US president is openly asking for US$1 billion,” said Kim Chung-hwan, 57, co-chair of the Seongju Committee Fighting for the Cancellation of the THAAD Deployment. “Is South Korea a colony that has to cough up cash whenever the US wants it to?” asked Park Hee-ju, 48, who is a member of the Gimcheon city council as well as co-chair of the Gimcheon Civic Action Committee Against the THAAD Deployment.  [Hankyoreh]

Here is what the Presidential candidates had to say about paying for THAAD with most of them as expected taking the populist we are not paying for THAAD stance:

Presidential candidates on Friday argued over Washington’s pressure on Seoul to pay for a US missile defense system to be stationed on the peninsula.

The top five candidates sat in a televised debated hosted by the National Election Broadcasting Debate Commission, the last debate to be held prior to the election on May 9.

The session started off with liberal candidates raising objections to the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and its deployment process.

“We have to tell (the US) to take THAAD back as we will not pay for it, for the sake of our nation’s dignity,” said Sim Sang-jeung of the progressive minority Justice Party.  (…….)  Front-runner Moon Jae-in of the main liberal Democratic Party of Korea, partly agreed with Sim’s argument.

“We have lost bargaining power over the issue because several parties and candidates unconditionally consented (to THAAD),” Moon said.

But he took a more moderate stance, claiming that the detailed discussions should be handed over to the incoming government.

“More diplomatic discussion and public consultation is required,” he said.

“Also, the billion-dollar amount is a huge financial burden upon the South Korean government, so a parliamentary ratification is necessary (to decide on the payment).”  Korea Herald]

There was at least one candidate that actually analyzed Trump’s remarks instead of taking a populist stance:

“I believe that President Trump has other purposes in mentioning (the THAAD expenses),” said Yoo.

“It has already been agreed that (Seoul) would not pay (for the deployment), so when I become president, I will talk (with the US) so that we won’t have to pay.”  [Korea Herald]

Mr. Yoo is likely right that President Trump has other purposes with the THAAD comment which I think may have been intended to set conditions for USFK cost sharing negotiations.  Korea will likely not end up paying for the THAAD deployment, but I would be surprised if they don’t end up paying more for USFK cost sharing once the current agreement ends next year.

I think who ever the next ROK president is will find it politically very difficult to pay for the THAAD deployment like President Trump is now requesting.  I think this may just be something President Trump is doing as a bargaining chip for future US-ROK Free Trade Agreement renegotiations which is something else he has been wanting.  I guess we will see what happens:

U.S. President Donald Trump has abruptly demanded that Seoul pay $1 billion for the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here, stoking negative public sentiment against the anti-missile system.

In response to the unexpected, deal-breaking remark, the Ministry of National Defense said Friday that Washington should pay any costs in accordance with the two countries’ Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) that governs the treatment of U.S. forces stationed here.

Trump’s comments were squarely against the allies’ previous agreement, reached based on SOFA, which calls for South Korea to provide the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) with the site for the anti-missile shield and other infrastructure, and for the U.S. to bear the cost of deployment and operation.

The government provided the USFK with land in Seongju County, North Gyeongsang Province, previously owned by Lotte Group, April 20.

Trump’s surprise remarks are adding fuel to the ongoing controversy over the deployment of the THAAD battery, giving objectors another reason to oppose it, along with fierce protests from local residents over the system’s possible environmental risks.

During an interview with Reuters, Thursday, President Trump said the THAAD system was to protect South Korean people, questioning why the U.S. should pay for that.

“On the THAAD system, it’s about a billion dollars. I said, ‘Why are we paying? Why are we paying a billion dollars? We’re protecting,'” he said. “So, I informed South Korea it would be appropriate if they paid.”

Stressing that the battery is “phenomenal” and “the most incredible” equipment to shoot down enemy missiles, he continued: “We’re going to protect them. But they should pay for that, and they understand that.”  [Korea Times]

Here is the ROK political reaction to President Trump’s demand:

Presidential front-runner Moon has been opposing the deployment of the U.S.-led antimissile defense system in Korea.

“The deployment and management of the Thaad system must be paid for by the U.S. government, as agreed upon initially between the two governments,” said People’s Party Rep. Son Kum-ju, chief spokesman of the presidential campaign of Ahn Cheol-soo. “But if there were disagreements on the bilateral agreement to deploy the defense system, the agreement must be tabled for approval at the National Assembly.”

The Park Geun-hye administration last July said the deployment requires no approval by the National Assembly, but liberal opposition parties that are against the placement said the matter should be deliberated and ratified by the lawmakers.

“The People’s Party also opposes renegotiating the Korea-U.S. FTA. It is only right that two countries stick to agreements they have reached together,” Son added.

Some lawmakers went so far as to request the cancellation of the agreement over Thaad.

“We would rather the U.S. government take back the Thaad battery if it’s going to make the South Korean government pay for it,” said Rep. Sim Sang-jeung of the Justice Party, also a candidate for the presidential election, in a campaign speech on Friday at Hongik University Station in western Seoul. “The South Korean people have not asked for Thaad.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

It will be interesting to see how this turns out.