Category: US-ROK Alliance

If North Korea is going to start a provocation cycle after the New Year as the Kim regime has vaguely indicated, it appears that the Trump administration is not going to give them an easy excuse to point at for the provocation:

South Korea and the United States decided to put off their wintertime combined air exercises to support diplomacy with North Korea, the two sides said Sunday, with U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper urging Pyongyang to reciprocate the goodwill by returning to nuclear talks.

Esper and South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo announced the surprise decision during an impromptu joint press conference in Bangkok on the sidelines of a regional defense ministers’ meeting led by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

“We have made this decision as an act of goodwill to contribute to an environment conducive to diplomacy and the advancement of peace,” Esper said after announcing that the allies decided to postpone the Combined Flying Training Event set for later this month.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

As I predicted there was no way that the Moon administration was going to reverse course on withdrawing from the GSOMIA. Promoting anti-Japanese sentiment is literally the only issue his party has to run on for the parliamentary elections coming up early next year. Reversing the decision on the GSOMIA would have been a major loss of face for the Moon administration:

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper told South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Friday he will try to persuade Japan to “smoothly” resolve the dispute over the two neighbors’ military information-sharing arrangement, according to the presidential office.

During a 50-minute meeting with Esper at Cheong Wa Dae, Moon explained his government’s basic position that it’s “difficult to share military information” with Japan, which has imposed export restrictions against South Korea for a stated reason that Seoul is not trustworthy as a security partner, Cheong Wa Dae spokesperson Ko Min-jung said.

In late August, the Moon administration decided not to renew the General Security of Military Agreement (GSOMIA) and it’s slated to expire as of next Saturday.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

As I have been saying the Moon administration needs an issue to run on in Parliamentary elections coming up early next year and really the only thing they got is the anti-Japan issue. From their point of view there is currently no reason to resolve this issue:

Washington is putting pressure on Seoul to renew the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with Tokyo ahead of the Nov. 22 notification deadline to terminate the pact, which was signed at the U.S. initiative in 2016. Washington has sent key defense officials to Seoul this week ahead of the deadline. 

President Moon Jae-in will meet U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper this afternoon, according to Cheong Wa Dae. During the meeting, Moon is expected to explain the need to terminate the pact owing to Japan’s unchanged position on its trade restrictions against Korean companies. He is also expected to reiterate “equitable” cost-sharing for U.S. troops stationed in Korea amid ongoing negotiations on this issue. 

With the GSOMIA termination deadline only days away, there is intense media attention particularly on whether Cheong Wa Dae, which has adamantly called on Japan to reverse its trade restrictions first, may shift its stance, given the escalating pressure from the United States to maintain the agreement for the sake of “trilateral security cooperation.” 

However, it is unlikely that the presidential office will reverse its decision in light of Japan’s ongoing trade restrictions and its relentless stance on historical disagreements between the two countries, according to sources. During a Nov. 10 press conference, Chung Eui-yong, chief of the National Security Office (NSO), reiterated that Japan should make the first move and justified Korea’s decision to end the pact. “From our point of view, the recent difficulties in Korea-Japan relations were fundamentally caused by Japan,” Chung said. “I believe the Korean people understand that we could not extend the GSOMIA after Japan said that it carried out the trade restrictions because bilateral trust for security cooperation had been harmed.” 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but the Moon administration is blaming Japan for the trade dispute when it was the Moon administration that threatened to seize the assets of Japanese companies to pay World War II forced laborers even though an agreement was signed in 1965 that settled this issue and normalized relations between the two countries.

In General Abrams’ remarks he say that he believed the GSOMIA showed that Japan and the ROK had put aside their historical differences. I think it is more accurate to say that the Korean right under the prior Park Geun-hye administration were able to put aside the historical differences, but the Korean left never did. They fought this and other political arrangements with Japan from the beginning. It was clear that when ever they regained power they would reverse all gains made politically with Japan which is what they are doing. The GSOMIA is just the latest change they are making:

The looming termination of the military information-sharing pact between South Korea and Japan, if realized, could send the wrong message that the U.S. and its two Asian allies are not strong enough to ensure security in the region, U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) Commander Gen. Robert Abrams said.

The General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) is set to expire on Nov. 23, following South Korea’s decision in August to terminate it after Japan imposed export curbs on Seoul in a row over wartime forced labor.

“The fundamental principle of the information-sharing agreement was a clear message to the region that the ROK and Japan put aside perhaps the historical differences and put at the forefront stability and security of the region,” Abrams said in a press interview held on Tuesday to mark his first year in office. ROK is the acronym of South Korea’s official name, the Republic of Korea. 

“Together, we are much stronger for providing for stable and secure Northeast Asia. And without that, there is a risk of sending the wrong message that perhaps we are not as strong,” he said during the interview held at his office at Camp Humphreys, a sprawling U.S. base in Pyeongtaek, 70 kilometers south of Seoul.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but the real people benefitting from the end of GSOMIA is China and North Korea.

I will be highly surprised if the Moon administration keeps the GSOMIA in place because they need to feed anti-Japanese sentiment for next year’s parliamentary elections. Plus the Moon administration can use the GSOMIA as a bargaining chip with the US in the ongoing cost sharing negotiations:

Against this backdrop, a Cheong Wa Dae official said Sunday, Korea can’t cooperate with Japan “as long as they deem us an untrustworthy partner and continue to impose export curbs.”

Speaking before the National Assembly, Friday, Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha, also said Japan’s removal of the export control should be a precondition for Korea’s possible change concerning the GSOMIA decision.

On whether Beijing and Pyongyang will benefit most from the termination of GSOMIA, Kang said “Such assessment is possible.”

Shin speculated the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) in Seoul from Nov. 15 to 16, and G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Nagoya, Japan, from Nov. 22 to 23 may be the “last chance” to settle the GSOMIA dispute.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

I guess we will see if the U.S. Defense Secretary can help mend defense relations between Japan and the ROK next week:

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper will travel to South Korea next week for annual defense ministers’ talks ahead of the expiry of a key military intelligence-sharing pact between Seoul and Tokyo, the Pentagon said Thursday.

Esper will depart Wednesday to travel to Seoul, Bangkok, Manila and Hanoi, Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said during a press briefing. He did not provide the exact dates, but it appears likely the secretary will travel in that order.

Esper’s trip to Seoul comes ahead of the Nov. 23 expiration of the General Security of Military Information Agreement between South Korea and Japan.

Washington has urged Seoul to reconsider its decision to end the pact in consideration of the three countries’ mutual security interests.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

At some point I would not be surprised if the Moon administration plays the anti-US card at some point to get the American negotiators to back down on increased cost sharing demands. In the past the usual suspects would already be out there protesting like crazy about something like this, but clearly the Moon administration has them in check for now:

Alarm has started to spread in Seoul over reported demands by the United States that Korea contribute to the upkeep of U.S. military forces beyond the Korean Peninsula. 

According to Rep. Yoon Sang-hyun, chairman of the National Assembly’s Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee on Thursday, Washington’s chief negotiator in negotiations with Seoul over the Special Measures Agreement (SMA), James DeHart, told Korean lawmakers and government officials in a meeting that Korea should pay approximately $4.7 billion in alliance upkeep costs – around five times the amount it currently pays to keep U.S. forces stationed on its soil. 

Yoon told a local broadcaster that this amount includes labor and logistics costs for the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) – which Seoul is already paying – but also maintenance and deployment costs for U.S. strategic assets on Korean soil and at U.S. military bases abroad, possibly in Guam, Hawaii and around the Indian Ocean. 

Other expenses demanded from Korea include the costs of conducting combined military exercises and upkeep for civilian attaches to the USFK.

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

Here is the latest on the pending termination of the GSOMIA:

The United States appears to be heaping pressure on South Korea to retract its decision to end a military intelligence-sharing pact with Tokyo amid North Korea’s continued saber-rattling and specter of tighter security cooperation between China and Russia.

U.S. diplomats have openly voiced concerns over the looming termination of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), seen as a symbolic platform for Washington to expand its trilateral defense collaboration with the Asian allies.

In August, Seoul announced its decision to end GSOMIA in response to Tokyo’s new export curbs seen as political retaliation for last year’s Korean Supreme Court rulings against Japanese firms over wartime forced labor. It will expire on Nov. 23 unless Seoul reverses the decision.

In a recent interview with Japan’s Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Marc Knapper, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for Korea and Japan, urged Seoul and Tokyo to maintain GSOMIA despite their chilled ties.

“Nobody is happy with the situation. Actually not nobody — there are people happy with the situation, but they happen to be in Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang,” Knapper said in the interview.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.