Category: North Korea

This is all very predictable that President Moon would make the claim that Japan’s trade restrictions is about trying to stop South Korea’s economic development:

Last week, Tokyo removed Seoul from its “white list” of more than two dozen nations eligible for simplified customs procedures in buying strategically sensitive materials. Moon has characterized the move as part of Japan’s attempt to prevent South Korea from further developing its economy.

“Japan can never block the leap of our economy,” Moon said. Its export curbs will rather serve as a “catalyst” for South Koreans’ resolve to build economic power, he added.

Moon pointed out that the Japanese economy is superior to South Korea’s in size and domestic market. If a peace economy is realized through economic cooperation between the two Koreas, South Korea would overtake Japan at a stretch, Moon said.

Despite tumults in inter-Korean relations or Pyongyang-Washington talks, he added, South Koreans shouldn’t be easily pessimistic about a peace economy or give up efforts toward it.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but the only reason Japan imposed the trade restrictions was because of the Moon administration’s cancelling of the comfort women agreement and threatening to confiscate assets of Japanese companies. None of trade restrictions would be in place by Japan if the Moon administration abided by past agreements signed between Japan and Korea resolving financial liability for past Imperial Japanese actions.

As far North Korea being an economic growth engine that can replace Japan’s importance to the South Korean economy, good luck with that because that will only happen after the Kim regime is gone.

The National Interest has an interesting read about the rifle North Korea has outfitted some of its military members with:

One of the largest armies in the world has adopted one of the most unusual variants of the AK-series of assault rifles.

The North Korean People’s Army Type 88 rifle is similar to the Soviet-era AK-74 with one key difference: unusual helical magazines that carry up to five times as many rounds as conventional 30-round magazines. (…..)

The latest North Korean assault rifle is the Type 88. The Type 88 is a copy of the AK-74 assault rifle, whose primary advantage over the AK-47 was the adoption of the smaller, lighter 5.45-millimeter round. Exactly when the Type 88 was adopted is not clear, but the type designation, in this case, may indicate the year of adoption—1988. The rifle is now a staple of North Korean military parades and is frequently seen in the hands of North Korean special operations troops and leader Kim Jong Un’s bodyguards.

The National Interest

You can read more at the link.

Anyone closely following North Korea knows they are not going to give up their nuclear weapons. The below article explains some of the reasons why:

“There seems to be a very subtle debate going on,” said Town, citing articles in North Korean press “that are really questioning the value of why are we giving away our nuclear deterrent, why are we working with these capitalists?” Other articles have pushed back, stressing “the value of diplomacy.”

Kim has expressed skepticism. In a speech in April, he said President Trump “continuously observes” that the two leaders are friendly. But Kim added that the U.S. is making one-sided demands and using the wrong “political calculations.”

Analysts say Kim’s own political calculations have made it hard to give up nuclear weapons.

Jean Lee, a former Associated Press correspondent who spent much time in Pyongyang, said North Korea’s propaganda described the nuclear program as “the one thing that he has told his people is protecting them from a foreign invasion.”

Giving up the nuclear program would undermine Kim’s legitimacy as a ruler, said Ken Gause, who studies the North Korean leadership for CNA, a research group based in Arlington, Va.

“I think he can dismantle parts of the program,” Gause said, but only in ways that are “not verifiable and not irreversible,” and “probably not near as much as we would want.”

To accept even a partial dismantling, Kim would need concessions from the United States, such as the lifting of economic sanctions against North Korea. “Kim is not moving an iota unless the U.S. put stuff on the table,” said Gause, “which means money going into the pockets of the elite because that’s the people he has to satisfy.”

NPR

You can read more at the link, but this is why North Korea wants a “freeze deal” in return for sanctions relief. With a freeze deal they give up nothing, they just suspend testing and get sanctions relief, probably the re-opening of the Kaesong Industrial Complex and Kumgang mountain tours. These were huge money makers for the regime before their closure.

If these projects are reopened, the North Koreans will behave for a while and cash up their regime and at a time of their choosing they will start another provocation cycle. However, every provocation cycle they feature better and better military capabilities due to the prior sanctions relief that has allowed them to pour money into weapons development.

President Trump appears to want to stop this cycle, but some in the administration appear to just want the problem to go away with a freeze deal and let someone down the road deal with the problem which has been the US policy for decades and that is what Kim Jong-un is counting on.

North Korea says they did not test a missile, but instead a large caliber rocket system this week:

 North Korea said Thursday it tested a new rocket system in launches conducted the previous day, raising questions about South Korea’s assessment that the communist nation is believed to have fired short-range ballistic missiles.

Leader Kim Jong-un “guided a test-fire of a newly developed large-caliber multiple launch guided rocket system on July 31,” the Korean Central News Agency said.

“The test-fire scientifically confirmed that the tactical data and technical characteristics of the new-type large-caliber guided ordnance rocket reached the numerical values of its design, and verified the combat effectiveness of the overall system,” the KCNA said. 

“After learning about the result of the test-fire, (Kim Jong-un) said that it is very great and it would be an inescapable distress to the forces becoming a fat target of the weapon,” it added.

The KCNA did not mention any country as its potential target, but the report appears to be referring to Seoul, which is apparently within the range of the weapon.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but the “fat target” North Korea is referring to could not only be Seoul, but Camp Humphreys as well.

Another North Korean soldier has defected:

 A North Korean soldier defected to South Korea in a midnight river crossing in the border area known as the Demilitarized Zone, South Korea’s military said Thursday.

The defection comes at a sensitive time. Efforts by Seoul to improve relations between the two Koreas have been stymied amid stalled U.S.-North Korean nuclear talks.

The soldier was spotted via a thermal observation device in the Imjin River at about 11:38 p.m. Wednesday after crossing a central section of the Military Demarcation Line that divides the peninsula, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The river was swollen from rainy weather, making it difficult for local troops to determine the object in the river was a person until the soldier emerged from the water just before midnight, officials told reporters at a briefing.

The local military unit then sent a team and took the individual safely into custody, they said, adding that no unusual North Korean military movements were detected in the area.

“The man is an active-duty soldier who expressed his desire to defect to the South,” officials said. “Related procedures are underway.”

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link, but that is quite a swim getting across the Imjim River during monsoon season. According to Yonhap this was the first defection across the Imjim River since 2010.

#North Korea's State Security monitors the social media of #defectors , pressures those with families in the north to not to post anti-North Korean regime information.https://t.co/ETVWYaZBai

— Tara O (@DrTaraO) July 30, 2019

It seems besides the strategic messaging to Washington, that the Kim regime is continuing prove that their new missile can accurately fly at different trajectories:

North Korea on Wednesday launched two short-range ballistic missiles from its eastern coast, the second such test in six days. 

According to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), the missiles were fired at 5:06 a.m. and 5:27 a.m. from an area around Kalma near Wonsan, Kangwon Province. Both projectiles flew around 250 kilometers (155 miles) at an altitude of approximately 30 kilometers before landing in the East Sea, a JCS spokesman said. 

The first missile to be fired was spotted by Korea’s Master Control and Reporting Center (MCRC) and a Navy vessel equipped with the Aegis Combat System, while the second was detected by the MCRC, the ship and early warning radar. 

While it is not yet known what kinds of rocket were launched Wednesday, they may be similar to those fired on July 25, which are believed to be domestically produced variants of the Russian-made 9K720 Iskander missile system, code named KN-23 by South Korean and U.S. intelligence. (…..)

The significant feature of Wednesday’s test was the missile’s low peak altitude of 30 kilometers. South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo at a security forum Wednesday said that South Korean and U.S. intelligence saw in the North’s newest tests “different indicators” than before.

Analysts said Pyongyang may have deliberately chosen to test a variety of trajectories for its KN-23 missile system since May in order to send a message to Seoul and Washington that it possesses the capacity to evade their most sophisticated antimissile defense systems.

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but the article once again discusses how the KN-23 can fly lower than the engagement altitude of THAAD. The ROK military rightfully countered that they have Patriot missile batteries that can engage this threat.  

THAAD was never meant to be a magic bullet that engages all threats on the peninsula. THAAD engages targets at higher altitudes than Patriot. One of the main reasons it was deployed was because of the threat of lofted trajectory missiles that North Korea was testing that the Patriot batteries could not engage.

Does anyone believe this was a mistake by the North Korean military?:

 A fishing boat apparently operated by North Korea’s military has been towed into a South Korean port for investigation after “mistakenly” sailing across the inter-Korean sea border, the military authorities here said Sunday.

Three North Koreans, one wearing the communist nation’s military uniform, were aboard the 10-meter-long wooden boat, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).

Asked initially if they have a desire to defect to the South, they said no, according to a source. 

But the military took them to the port to figure out the exact reason for the NLL crossing. An interagency probe team is looking into the personal backgrounds of the North Koreans and their intentions.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but this could have been a insertion mission of North Korean agents into South Korea or simply something to judge ROK maritime reaction times.

As I speculated yesterday, the Kim regime has confirmed the missile test is linked to the upcoming joint exercise:

Anchor: North Korea has confirmed that it test-fired “new tactical guided weapons” on Thursday, with leader Kim Jong-un personally overseeing the launches. The North’s state-media described the provocations as a “solemn warning” to South Korea. 

Kim Bum-soo has more.

Report: After firing two short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea Thursday, North Korea has issued a warning to South Korea. 

The North’s state-run media said Friday that leader Kim Jong-un personally oversaw what it called a “new tactical guided weapon” test in a show of military might.

The Korean Central News Agency(KCNA) said the launch is a “solemn warning” to South Korean “military warmongers,” who were described as “running high fever in their moves to introduce the ultramodern offensive weapons and hold military exercises in defiance of the repeated warnings.” 

Earlier this month, the South Korean Air Force received two U.S.-built F-35A stealth fighter jets and hopes to deploy a total of 40 by 2021. Seoul and Washington are also scheduled to stage their joint 19-2 Dongmaeng military exercise next month. 

In an apparent reference to President Moon Jae-in, Kim was cited as advising the “South Korean authority” to “stop such suicidal acts as adopting new weapons and military exercises.” Kim also urged Moon to return to his reconciliatory position on display during the inter-Korean summits last year.

KBS World Radio

You can read more at the link, but notice how North Korea has no problem bashing President Moon, but are unwilling to criticize President Trump. This is because they are still hoping that President Trump will relax sanctions on them for a freeze deal. A freeze deal means they give up nothing because they are just required to stop testing. They can restart testing at a time of their choosing after collecting enough foreign revenue and then blame the U.S. for the failure of the deal.

Kim Jong-un has always said that he is waiting until the end of the year for a deal to be reached. If a deal is not reached he could restart ICBM testing. He is giving the Trump administration a preview of what he could start doing right in the middle of President Trump’s re-election campaign next year if a deal is not struck.

#KimJongun "threatens" by rejecting #SouthKorean rice aid. That should scare the #MoonJaein administration, since it wants so badly to give rice to the Kim regime. But without Wise Honest ship, how will Kim export the rice for cash anyway? https://t.co/YiIXsgOYqh

— Tara O (@DrTaraO) July 24, 2019