Category: North Korea

Here is the latest on the possible restart of talks with North Korea:

Earlier Wednesday, Bolton told a private lunch group that any negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang are “doomed to failure,” U.S. media reported. Bolton said the lifting of sanctions is North Korea’s only goal. 

In response, Trump stressed that his administration has successfully stopped North Korean nuclear tests and that he has a good relationship with its leader. 

“So I think that’s better than somebody that goes around saying we want to use the Libyan model,” Trump said. “He said the ‘Libyan model.’ That set us back very badly when he said that. So I think John really should take a look at how badly they’ve done in the past, and maybe a new method would be very good.”

Kim Myong-gil, a former North Korean ambassador to Vietnam, in a statement carried by Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency Friday “welcomed” President Trump’s “wise political determination” calling for a new method of negotiations. 

Kim, now confirmed as the North’s counterpart to U.S. top nuclear envoy Stephen Biegun, lauded Trump’s criticism of the Libyan model and said he wants to be “optimistic” about the results of North-U.S. negotiations expected to “take place soon.”

North Korea said Monday it wants to meet with the United States in late September, but no meeting has been set. Urging the United States to come up with a “new calculation method,” the North has demanded that economic sanctions be lifted and security guarantees for its regime be offered. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but my reading of the tea leaves is that a deal of some kind will be worked out with North Korea. I think President Trump realizes they are not giving up their nukes and it appears a “pretend denuclearization” deal may be what is ultimately worked out.

It is very easy to imagine North Korea using a drone attack against an infrastructure target in South Korea as part of a provocation strategy and then deny they did it. Remember this is the same country that torpedoed a ROK naval ship killing dozens of sailors, then denied they did it and still had people in South Korea making excuses for them:

The devastating drone attack on a Saudi oil field by Yemeni rebels has raised concerns that vital South Korean installations could be similarly vulnerable to attack drones from North Korea. 

Some pundits believe North Korea has steadily improved its drone capabilities since leader Kim Jong-un took power, although so far only a few crashed unmanned aerial vehicles used for surveillance were found here.

But at recent military parades, the North has unveiled ostensibly self-destructing UAVs and, once armed, could potentially aim them at Cheong Wa Dae, Army headquarters and other key military installations.

Chosun Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but considering how far they have flown drones before into South Korea the ability to successfully conduct such an attack is there.

It will be interesting to see if President Trump takes Kim Jong-un up on his offer to visit Pyongyang. I can only see this happening if a significant deal is reached. I don’t think he would want to fly to Pyongyang and have a summit lead to no results like what happened in Hanoi:

Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said Monday that she had been briefed by the United States about a personal letter sent by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to U.S. President Donald Trump inviting him for a third summit to be held in Pyongyang.

“I was recently told in detail from the U.S. about the existence of the letter,” she told lawmakers during a meeting at the National Assembly.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

Some how I doubt these North Korean hacking groups own any property in the U.S. which would make these sanctions more or less a PR effort:

The United States on Friday sanctioned three entities it accused of conducting cyber attacks on behalf of the North Korean government to generate revenue for the regime’s nuclear and missile programs.

The Department of the Treasury said the new measures target Lazarus Group, Bluenoroff, and Andariel, all of which are controlled by the Reconnaissance General Bureau, North Korea’s primary intelligence bureau.

Lazarus Group’s activities were widely reported after it was blamed for the 2014 cyber attack of Sony Pictures Entertainment and the 2017 WannaCry ransomware attack on countries including the U.S. and Britain.

Bluenoroff and Andariel, the Treasury said, are sub-groups of Lazarus Group.

“Treasury is taking action against North Korean hacking groups that have been perpetrating cyber attacks to support illicit weapon and missile programs,” Treasury Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Sigal Mandelker said in a statement.

“We will continue to enforce existing U.S. and UN sanctions against North Korea and work with the international community to improve cybersecurity of financial networks,” she said.

The sanctions freeze all of the entities’ property and interests in the U.S., as well as those of other entities that are owned 50 percent or more by the three groups.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

President Trump is right, that bringing up the Libya model to North Korea was not a good reference if trying to cut a deal:

U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that former National Security Adviser John Bolton “set us back” in denuclearization negotiations with North Korea by demanding the regime follow the “Libya model” and hand over all of its nuclear weapons.

Bolton quit the administration on Tuesday following disagreements with Trump on policies including how to denuclearize North Korea.

The hawkish adviser had once advocated for the “Libya model” that calls for North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program before receiving any concessions in return.

“He made some very big mistakes. When he talked about the Libyan model for Kim Jong-un, that was not a good statement to make,” Trump told reporters at the White House, referring to the North Korean leader. “You just take a look at what happened with Gaddafi. That was not a good statement to make, and it set us back.”

Libya surrendered its weapons of mass destruction program in 2003, but its then-leader Muammar Gaddafi was toppled from power and killed by NATO-backed rebel forces in 2011.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but I think this statement also shows that President Trump realizes that Kim Jong-un is not going to give up all of his nuclear weapons. This means that he is going to have to figure out what amount of nuclear capability and capacity the United States is willing to allow North Korea to have in order to cut a deal.

The Kim regime was probably pleased to see the news that John Bolton resigned as the U.S. National Security advisor:

Following the exit of hawkish National Security Adviser John Bolton from President Donald Trump’s cabinet after he was unceremoniously fired, Washington is now expected to soften its hardline approach toward North Korea when both sides resume their talks on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, experts said Wednesday.

The ouster of Bolton is seen as a message from Trump that he badly wants to revive the stalled talks since the failure of the Hanoi summit earlier this year. The U.S. president is widely seen as trying to generate a good foreign affairs policy outcome in his bid for re-election next year. Bolton’s departure came as Pyongyang showed its willingness to resume working-level nuclear talks with the U.S. later this month.

“North Korea will apparently welcome Trump’s ouster of Bolton, as the hawkish figure has long been seen as a thorn in its side from the North’s viewpoint,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of international relations at Handong Global University. “This is a positive sign in terms of resuming the nuclear talks between Washington and Pyongyang.”

But the expert pointed out that Bolton’s absence could have a negative impact on Washington’s ultimate long-term goal of achieving complete denuclearization of the North.

“Bolton was well aware of what denuclearization is and has always stuck to principles without being swayed by political interests,” Park said. Bolton was the most appropriate figure who could deliver critical and realistic messages to Trump, so there are now concerns on whether the U.S. president will be able to fill the position with someone who is as well-versed in denuclearization, the professor said.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but the North Koreans are never going to fully denuclearize. The best that can be expected from them would be some kind of “pretend denuclearization” deal. I think President Trump realizes that and probably wants to cut some kind of deal prior to the U.S. Presidential campaign season next year.

It is business as usual on the Korean peninsula:

North Korea fired two short-range projectiles from a western region toward the East Sea on Tuesday, South Korea’s military said, just hours after the communist nation offered to resume nuclear talks with the United States.

The projectiles were fired at 6:53 a.m. and 7:12 a.m. from areas in the city of Kaechon, South Pyongan Province, about 80 kilometers north of the capital, Pyongyang, in a northeastern direction, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.

Both flew around 330 km across the peninsula, reaching a maximum altitude of around 50 to 60 km, the JCS said, while declining to confirm if the two projectiles landed in the East Sea or how fast they flew. The JCS added that South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities are analyzing their exact type. (…….)

The firings came just hours after the North’s First Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui expressed a willingness to resume denuclearization talks with the U.S. in late September and demanded that Washington come up with a new proposal acceptable to Pyongyang.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but as I have been saying for months, the North Koreans are going to push for the dropping sanctions on Kaesong and other cross border projects for little to nothing in return. If they don’t get a deal by the end of the year I expect them to start testing their longer range systems in order to create a “crisis” during the Presidential campaign season next year.

Creating such a crisis would undermine President Trump’s foreign policy credentials that his Democratic rivals can attack him with. So it will be interesting to see if President Trump decides to cut a deal to keep Pyongyang quiet next year. If not things could be very interesting on the peninsula next year.

It seems that an outsider like this operating in North Korea would be closely watched by the Kim regime making any espionage attempts extremely risky:

A former prisoner in North Korea has told German media that he used to spy for the CIA, seeking out nuclear secrets and taking pictures with a concealed wristwatch camera.

In a TV report by public broadcaster NDR, South Korean-born US citizen Kim Dong-chul, 67, recounts his former espionage operations, arrest and the abuse and torture he suffered behind bars.

“I approached military officers and scientists who I knew needed money,” Kim says in the programme, showing crooked fingers that he claims were broken by soldiers’ boots during his interrogation.

Kim Dong-chul was one of three American detainees freed by Pyongyang in May 2018, in the lead-up to the first summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

The ex-prisoner has since told South Korean media that he used to gather information for the country’s National Intelligence Service and the US Central Intelligence Agency.

The businessman and former Christian missionary had become a trusted insider in North Korea, where from 2001 he ran a hotel in the Rason special economic zone near the China and Russia borders.

He was arrested in October 2015 after he reportedly received a USB stick containing nuclear-linked data and other military information from a former North Korean soldier.

In April 2016 he was sentenced to 10 years’ hard labour for subversion and espionage.

In the TV programme, he reports that after the 2011 death of former leader Kim Jong Il, he was recruited by a CIA agent in South Korea.

AFP

You can read more at the link.

It makes sense that this guy would get promoted considering the priority that the Kim regime has put on developing bigger and better rocket and missile systems:

Pyongyang has named an army general with expertise in artillery as its new military commander, North Korean state media reported, in a move that an analyst said could signal plans for the development of new weapons.

Pak Jong Chon was appointed the “chief of the General Staff of the Korean People’s Army,” KCNA said late Friday, adding that the decision was announced during a meeting attended by leader Kim Jong Un.

Pak succeeds Ri Yong Gil, an expert on military operations who has served in the position on two separate occasions since 2013.

His promotion from head of the Korean People’s Army’s Artillery Command may suggest a new military focus on weapons development, said Ahn Chan-il, a North Korean defector and researcher in Seoul.

The North was particularly threatened by the South’s acquisition of cutting-edge American F-35 stealth fighter jets — known for their ability to evade radar detection — earlier this year, Ahn told AFP.

“It is also notable that Pak accompanied Kim during the North’s test-firing of its new weapons,” he added. “With him as the North’s top military officer, it’s more likely that Pyongyang will prioritise artillery along with its new weapons system.”

AFP

Your regular reminder that our differences with Pyongyang are bigger than a freeze deal or an empty promise of peace. A lasting peace will require it to make a sustainable commitment to systemic change, & its word alone means nothing.https://t.co/ElZbD8jVp4 via @The_Daily_NK

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) August 31, 2019