Category: North Korea

That is what some analysts believe:

Now in his 13th year running North Korea, Kim is more aggressively testing the boundaries of what his adversaries will tolerate. Backed by rapid progress in his nation’s nuclear capabilities and missile program, the 40-year-old dictator began 2024 by removing the goal of peaceful unification from North Korea’s constitution and declaring he had the right to “annihilate” South Korea.

While such bellicose rhetoric would normally be dismissed — Kim could just be posturing ahead of South Korean elections on April 10 — two prominent analysts set off a round of discussion among North Korea watchers with an article suggesting that this time Kim isn’t bluffing. “Like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war,” former CIA officer Robert Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker wrote in early 2024 on the website 38 North, which focuses on North Korea.

They didn’t forecast how soon that could take place. Carlin and Hecker’s views are not universal: Most analysts argue that any full-scale attack would be a move of desperation or suicide, inviting a response from South Korea and the US that would end the Kim family’s nearly eight-decade-long rule.

But with multiple conflicts raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, it’s just the kind of war the world could stumble into – with potentially devastating consequences for not just the Korean Peninsula, but the global economy and, particularly, the chip supply chain.

Stars & Stripes

I don’t agree that North Korea is plotting some sneak attack war on South Korea. Kim Jong-un cares about preserving his regime and a war would end it. I agree with Daniel Pinkston’s analysis of what North Korea’s strategy towards the ROK is:

Kim would’ve already invaded South Korea if he was actually preparing for war, according to Daniel Pinkston, an international relations lecturer at Troy University in Seoul and a former Korean linguist with the US Air Force. A simpler explanation, he said, is that North Korea is deterred from doing so. “The North Korea leadership is waiting for a restructuring of the world order and the collapse of the US-led alliance system in East Asia,” said Pinkston. “Unless that happens, I don’t see a theory of victory for North Korea.”

You can read more at the link.

I am actually surprised that more people haven’t done this over the Chinese North Korean border:

Rare photos and footage from inside North Korea taken by a civilian-operated drone launched from China gave a glimpse into the daily lives of people in the reclusive state.

A civilian with Reddit username XiaoHao2 shared 12 photos and three video clips of the northwestern border city of Sinuiju. The border city is located in the northwestern region of North Korea and faces the Chinese city of Dandong across the Yalu River, also known as the Amnok River.

The user titled the post, “Drone pics of North Korea, I was in China, my drone flew across the border,” adding that the photos and videos were captured using a Chinese-made DJI drone. The post was upvoted 14,100 times in three days.

The footage was recorded in 2020 during the pandemic lockdown, according to the account holder that posted the images. A handful of images show North Korean residents looking up at the drone. A few seem startled by the drone crossing into North Korean airspace.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

It appears that North Korea is trying to advance their ballistic missile technology to include hypersonic capabilities:

North Korea fired what appeared to be an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) into the East Sea on Tuesday, the South Korean military said, in its third ballistic missile launch of the year.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said in a message to reporters that it detected a missile presumed to be intermediate-range class fired from the Pyongyang region at 6:53 a.m. and the missile flew about 600 kilometers before landing in the East Sea.

Military officials suspect the North may have test-fired an intermediate-range missile equipped with a hypersonic warhead to test the performance of its delivery system following an engine test last month.

On March 20, Pyongyang said it successfully conducted a ground jet test of a solid-fuel engine for a new type of intermediate hypersonic missile.

“North Korea appears to have put a hypersonic warhead on top of the delivery system used in the engine test last month,” a senior military official said on the background.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

I am wondering if the Japanese effort to start talks with North Korea was nothing more than political theater? The Japanese spokesman had to have known that his statements about discussing the abduction issue would lead to North Korea ending any possibility of bilateral talks which is what Kim Yo-jong did:

North Korea will refuse “any contact and negotiations” with Japan in the future, the powerful sister of the nuclear-armed country’s leader said Tuesday, just a day after she said Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had requested a summit with her brother, Kim Jong Un.

In a statement carried by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency, Kim Yo Jong pointed to the comments by the Japanese government’s top spokesman on Monday that Tokyo would never accept Pyongyang’s claim that the issue of Japanese nationals abducted by Pyongyang in the 1970s and 1980s had already been resolved.

“Japan has no courage to change history, promote regional peace and stability and take the first step for the fresh DPRK-Japan relations,” she said, adding that a summit meeting between the two countries’ leaders was therefore “not a matter of concern” to Pyongyang.

“The DPRK government has clearly understood once again the attitude of Japan and, accordingly, the DPRK side will pay no attention to and reject any contact and negotiations with the Japanese side,” KCNA quoted her as saying, using the acronym for the country’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Japan Times

You can read more at the link.

I wonder if the Russians are helping the North Koreans to develop hypersonic weapons or if this is all just for show to raise tensions?:

North Korea conducts a ground jet test of a solid-fuel engine for a new type of intermediate-range hypersonic missile at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground on March 19, 2024, in this photo carried by the Korean Central News Agency the next day. (Yonhap)

North Korea said Wednesday it has successfully conducted a ground jet test of a solid-fuel engine for a new type of intermediate hypersonic missile amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Hypersonic missiles are on the list of sophisticated weapons North Korean leader Kim Jong-un vowed to develop during a key party congress in 2021, along with nuclear-powered submarines, spy satellites and solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

Hypersonic missiles travel at a speed of at least Mach 5 — five times the speed of sound — and are designed to be maneuverable on unpredictable flight paths and fly at low altitudes. At Mach 5 or higher, such a missile would be able to traverse the 195 kilometers between Pyongyang and Seoul in just one to two minutes.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

North Korea’s war on the fish of the East Sea continues:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has guided firing drills involving super-large multiple rocket launchers and called for perfecting readiness to collapse the capital of the enemy with the “core striking means,” state media said Tuesday.

On the previous day, Kim oversaw the “salvo” drills of artillery units in the country’s western region using the 600mm multiple launch rocket system, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

The South Korean military said Monday it detected the firing of multiple short-range ballistic missiles from areas near Pyongyang and they flew about 300 kilometers toward the East Sea. Experts said they might be the KN-25 super-large multiple rocket launcher.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that North Korea is likely to ramp up their provocations this year during Korea’s parliamentary elections and the U.S. Presidential election periods:

Yang Uk, a research fellow at Asan Institute of Policy Studies in Seoul, said North Korea had probably been refraining from aggression for the past month in light of political events in China and Russia, like annual plenary sessions and Moscow’s presidential election.

“North Korea is probably going to start to ramp up provocations from now,” he told The Korea Herald. “Pyongyang probably opted for a short-range, rather than a long-range ballistic missile, with its possible summit with Tokyo in mind,” he said, referring to recent news that North Korea is seeking to meet with Japan.

The ruling People Power Party believes North Korea may escalate aggressions ahead of South Korea’s general election and the US presidential election.

Rep. Park Jeong-ha, the People Power Party chief spokesperson, said in a statement Monday that as the risks of “military and cyber provocations” from North Korea were “very high” over the year, greater political fluidity is expected internationally.

“North Korea’s provocations are anticipated to get more frequent and aggressive as the year progresses,” he said.

Korea Herald

You can read more at the link.

The only thing surprising about this missile firing is that they did not do this earlier for the start of the Freedom Shield exercise:

North Korea fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea on Monday, the South Korean military said, just hours before talks between the top diplomats of South Korea and the United States.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected the missile launches in the area of Pyongyang between 7:44 a.m. and 8:22 a.m., which flew around 300 kilometers and landed in the East Sea. 

“North Korea fired at least three missiles, and their trajectories were similar to those of KN-24,” a senior military official said.

The KN-24 is a solid-fuel ballistic missile with a range of up to 410 km and a payload of 400-500 kg.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.