It is pretty clear that the Kim regime is signaling to the US that they can launch an ICBM at any time and any place of their choosing with the midnight launch of their latest ICBM:
Korean Central Television’s footage of North Korea’s Hwasong-14 ballistic missile on July 28, 2017
North Korea’s state-run television on Saturday disclosed edited footage of its test-fire of an intercontinental range ballistic missile conducted the previous night.
According to the video footage that runs 2 1/2 minutes, the Hwasong-14 missile was moved on a transport erector launcher, known as a TEL, before being fired from a ground-based launch pad.
The method of launch was similar to one disclosed in separate TV footage released on July 5 following North Korea’s first intercontinental range ballistic missile launch.
Earlier, Pyongyang’s official KCNA claimed that the North successfully launched another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Friday night following its first test in early July, noting that the missile flew 998 kilometers for about 47 minutes into the East Sea after reaching a maximum altitude of 3,724.9 km.
In the footage unveiled by Korean Central Television, a TEL with eight wheels on each side drove slowly to the launch pad in Mupyong-ri in the country’s northern province of Jagang, carrying the Hwasong-14 missile aboard.
The missile was then placed upon the ground-based launcher and erected to an upright position. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link and below is a Youtube video showing the launch of Hwasong 14:
I will wait to hear what the US military releases publicly about how successful the warhead for this ICBM was before I believe anything the Kim regime puts out:
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said Saturday the second flight test of an intercontinental ballistic missile demonstrated his country can hit the U.S. mainland, hours after the launch left analysts concluding that a wide swath of the United States, including Los Angeles and Chicago, is now in range of North Korean weapons.
The Korean Central News Agency said that Kim expressed “great satisfaction” after the Hwasong-14 missile reached a maximum height of 3,725 kilometers (2,314 miles) and traveled 998 kilometers (620 miles) before accurately landing in waters off Japan. The agency said that the test was aimed at confirming the maximum range and other technical aspects of the missile it says was capable of delivering a “large-sized, heavy nuclear warhead.”
Analysts had estimated that the North’s first ICBM on July 4 could have reached Alaska, and said that the latest missile appeared to extend that range significantly.
Immediately after the launch, U.S. and South Korean forces conducted live-fire exercises. South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo called for the deployment of strategic U.S. military assets — which usually means stealth bombers and aircraft carriers — as well as additional launchers of an advanced U.S. anti-missile system.
Japanese government spokesman Yoshihide Suga said the missile, launched late Friday night, flew for about 45 minutes — about five minutes longer than the first. The missile was launched on very high trajectory, which limited the distance it traveled, and landed west of Japan’s island of Hokkaido.
The KCNA quoted Kim as saying that the launch reaffirmed the reliability of the country’s ICBM system and an ability to fire at “random regions and locations at random times” with the “entire” U.S. mainland now within range. The agency said that the test confirmed important features of the missile system, such as the proper separation of the warhead and controlling its movement and detonation after atmospheric re-entry. [Associated Press]
You can read more at the link, but if the Moon administration is now asking for the deployment of the four additional THAAD launchers doesn’t this mean that the current delay is entirely political? The supposed environmental concerns delaying the emplacement of the four launchers doesn’t just go away after North Korea tests an ICBM unless there was never any serious environmental concerns in the first place.
US diplomat Tom Malinowski has a good read in Politico that is long but worth reading which includes a number of ideas I have advocated for over the years:
Tom Malinowski
At my Senate confirmation hearing a few years ago, I made a promise to the panel deciding my fate: never to use the phrase “there are no good options.” After all, if there were obvious solutions to the hardest—and most interesting—problems we face in the world, they would already have been found. Our job in the U.S. government—I served in the State Department as an assistant secretary focused on human rights—was not to make excuses in such situations, but to use whatever inherently limited tools we had to try to make things better, and to avoid making them worse.
North Korea tests this proposition like nothing else. Since its latest provocative missile test, thoughtful observers have pointed out that neither sanctions nor diplomacy are likely to dissuade Kim Jong Un from deploying nuclear weapons that can reach the United States, that we cannot depend on China to stop him for us, but that the alternative of a military strike on North Korea could cause a war that would lay waste to our ally South Korea. When it comes to North Korea, the phrase “there are no good options” has become a mantra. [Politico]
Here is the part I have been advocating for, for many years, to aggressively fight the information war within North Korea:
Flood the zone with information: In the last year of the Obama administration, we increased our funding for getting information to North Koreans. But the State Department still allocates less then $3 million for this effort, and the Trump administration’s first budget request did not mention it. Congress should work with the administration to create a well-funded, dedicated program. The State Department should also continue efforts we began under Obama to enlist like-minded allies in Europe and Asia to back these efforts, and tech companies to find creative ways for North Koreans to share information safely. More funding should also go to scholarships for North Korean defectors, so that they will be ready to help their people if the North opens up.
Many North Korean defectors have said that they decision to defect was influenced by defector radio stations. Kang Chol-hwan who wrote the book Aquariums of Pyongyang is probably the most famous defector who said defector radio influenced his decision to leave North Korea.
The proliferation of USB and other media devices to bring in South Korean entertainment programming is another way the information war is being fought within North Korea.
Also as we have seen over the years nothing seems to infuriate the Kim regime more than the balloon launches from North Korean defectors. This fury is a sign that the anti-regime information smuggled into North Korea via these balloon launches is having an effect. The Kim regime even tried to assassinate the man behind the balloon launches to get them to stop.
Could you imagine what the regime’s reaction would be if cheap drones were developed that could beam down the Internet and television programming into North Korea? Imagine the resources the Kim regime would have to dedicate to combat this threat? That is why I think flooding the country with as much subversive information as possible will keep the regime on its heels and have to use many of its limited resources to combat it.
However the big question is if fighting the information war is enough to collapse the Kim regime? There is no silver bullet to ending the Kim family’s rule of North Korea which is why I think fighting the information war is not something that can singularly collapse the regime. It has to be part of a more comprehensive strategy which it seems no US administration has fully developed yet.
This shouldn’t come as any surprise considering the main reason for the Kim regime’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is to prevent regime change:
North Korea will launch a nuclear strike at the heart of the United States if Americans attempt a regime change in Pyongyang, the North’s state news agency said Tuesday in denunciation of recent remarks by the Central Intelligence Agency director.
In a forum last week, Mike Pompeo, the chief of the U.S. intelligence agency, alluded to the possibility of a regime change in North Korea by saying that the most important thing the U.S. can do is “separate (nuclear) capacity and someone who might well have (nuclear) intent and break those two apart.”
“Should the U.S. dare to show even the slightest sign of attempt to remove our supreme leadership, we will strike a merciless blow at the heart of the U.S. with our powerful nuclear hammer, honed and hardened over time,” the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said, quoting a spokesman of the North Korean foreign ministry.
The report said Pompeo’s remarks “have gone over the line, and it has now become clear that the ultimate aim of the Trump administration … is the regime change.” [Yonhap]
A waitress delivers mugs of beer at the first Taedonggang Beer Festival in Pyongyang last year. [KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY]A Chinese tour agency that specializes in North Korean tours announced the cancellation of the second Taedonggang Beer Festival on Sunday, which was initially planned to take place in Pyongyang from Wednesday throughout the end of August.“The reason for the cancellation is unclear and we don’t expect a full explanation,” Koryo Tours said in a brief statement on its official blog, “but it is possibly due to the country’s ongoing drought, which has caused a great deal of trouble.”
North Korea has yet to comment through its state media. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported as recently as last week that a newly produced wheat beer would be featured at this year’s festival. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
It looks like the next missile test for North Korea could occur on July 27th the anniversary for the signing of the Armistice Agreement ending the Korean War:
“North Korea seems to be boasting of its plan to develop Pukguksong-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles that have become shorter but have higher engine output.”
Concerns of another ballistic missile test are looming as CNN recently reported satellite imagery and satellite-based radar emissions indicate Pyongyang may be testing components and missile control facilities for an intercontinental ballistic missile or intermediate range missile launch within the next two weeks.
There are forecasts Pyongyang could forge ahead with another provocation sometime around July 27th, the day of the signing of the 1953 Armistice Agreement that brought a ceasefire in the Korean War, and which is also the day when South Korea’s military said they will wait until for a response on proposed inter-Korean military talks. [Arirang]
The only thing surprising about this is that it took the US government so many years to finally implement this travel ban:
The Trump administration will ban American citizens from traveling to North Korea, U.S. officials said Friday, following the death of university student Otto Warmbier who died in June after falling into a coma in a North Korean prison.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had decided to impose “geographical travel restriction” for North Korea, the officials said, which would make it illegal to use U.S. passports to enter the country. They said the restriction would be published in the Federal Register next week and will take effect 30 days after that.
The officials were not authorized to publicly discuss the decision before it is announced and spoke on condition of anonymity. Two tour operators that organize group trips to North Korea said they had already been informed of the decision. [Associated Press]
