At 93 years old it would be pretty amazing if former President Carter ends up making a trip to Pyongyang to negotiate an end to the latest nuclear crisis:
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter landed in North Korea on June 15, 1994 as Washington was getting close to bombing the Yongbyon nuclear facility. After talks with then-Pyongyang leader Kim Il Sung, Carter managed to broker a deal that diffused the crisis – and prevented another war on the peninsula. [YONHAP]Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter said he is willing to go on a diplomatic mission to North Korea on behalf of President Donald Trump, saying that China’s influence on the Pyongyang regime is “greatly overestimated.”
“I would go, yes,” Carter, 93, told a New York Times columnist at his home in Plains, Georgia, about whether he would go to Pyongyang for the Republican Trump administration.
According to an article published Saturday, Carter said that he has spoken with H. R. McMaster, Trump’s national security adviser, whom he called a good friend, and said, “I told him that I was available if they ever need me.”
But so far, he has gotten a negative response.
“I’m afraid, too, of a situation,” Carter said, remarking on the concern in Washington over the bellicose exchanges between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. “I don’t know what they’ll do. Because they want to save their regime,” referring to the North.
He voiced concern that the young leader Kim may try pre-emptive action if he thinks Trump would act against him, and added, “I think he’s now got advanced nuclear weaponry that can destroy the Korean Peninsula and Japan,” as well as outlying territories in the Pacific and maybe even parts of the U.S. mainland. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
Here is what retired General and former CIA Director David Petraeus had to say about President Trump’s rhetoric towards North Korea:
David Petraeus
The United States is unlikely to go to nuclear war with North Korea despite the recent escalation in tensions, a former director of the Central Intelligence Agency said Sunday.
David Petraeus, who served in the Barack Obama administration from 2011-2012, said he thinks U.S. President Donald Trump has been using tough rhetoric with North Korea to get the attention of the leadership in China, not in Pyongyang.
“This is about getting President Xi’s attention … so that China will really clamp down on the umbilical cord through which 90 percent of the trade that goes to and from North Korea transits,” Petraeus said in an interview on ABC News.
China is able to “bring North Korea to its senses,” he added, alluding to Beijing’s leverage as Pyongyang’s main ally and economic benefactor.
North Korea carried out two long-range missile tests in July and a sixth nuclear test in September. Trump declared shortly thereafter that he would “totally destroy” the North if it posed a direct threat to the U.S.
Petraeus said a nuclear war is still unlikely.
“I don’t think likely. No,” he said. “I think, in fact, that again all of this is a communications strategy that is trying to make sure that China understands that this administration is in a very different situation from any of its predecessors, that North Korea on this president’s watch could have the capability to hit a city in the United States with a nuclear weapon.” [Yonhap]
A ROK defense source is saying that the North Koreans may have tested their way out of a viable nuclear test site:
A satellite photo of a North Korean region near its Punggry-ri nuclear test (R), provided by 38 North, indicates landslides there following the Sept. 3 test. (Yonhap)
Even if North Korea wants to conduct another nuclear test, it may be facing a big hurdle to preparations at its testing site amid signs of topographic damage from the previous experiment, an informed South Korean defense source said Monday.
“The possibility of North Korea’s additional provocations remains open all the time,” the source said in response to the weeks-long break in its belligerent acts, as the South’s Defense Minister Song Young-moon visited the Philippines to participate in the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM)-Plus session.
The Kim Jong-un regime may be weighing the technological aspects of its nuclear and missile program and political timing, added the source.
The North passed the Oct. 10 founding anniversary of the powerful Workers’ Party and the opening of China’s communist party congress last week with any provocation. (……)
But it remains unclear whether the North will be able to carry out a seventh nuclear test in the near future amid reports of continued natural earthquakes near the Punggye-ri test area following the Sept. 3 hydrogen bomb test there with the destructive yield of more than 50 kilotons, according to the source.
“If it tries to send a meaningful message to the world with another nuclear test, it would require a more powerful bomb,” added the source. “North Korea will consider whether it will keep testing nuclear weapons there, including a review of topography.” [Yonhap]
Here is the latest call for President Trump to not visit the DMZ:
Sue Mi Terry
North Korea could feel threatened if U.S. President Donald Trump visits the demilitarized zone on the inter-Korean border next month, a U.S. expert said Friday.
Trump could include a trip to the buffer zone dividing South and North Korea when he visits Seoul from Nov. 7-8, according to news reports. There are concerns it could provoke Pyongyang amid high tensions over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.
“They’re seeing almost everything as a threat,” Sue Mi Terry, a former Korea analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, said during a discussion on North Korea.
She noted that Trump has called North Korean leader Kim Jong-un a “Rocket Man” on a suicide mission and threatened to “totally destroy” the country if necessary.
“They already see him as a very provocative person,” she said. “Anything that he does will be continually seen that way.”
Terry voiced strong opposition to the use of military action against North Korea, saying it could have “catastrophic consequences” for the 20 million people living in Seoul.
“I think North Korea will retaliate if there’s a military strike,” she said. “In this ‘track 2’ meeting I had with North Koreans, they emphasized that they didn’t go through this level of pain that they had gone through to acquire nuclear weapons — spending millions of dollars — just to be able to, to paraphrase their own words: ‘We’re not just going to perish without being able to use them if we think the attack for regime change is coming.'” [Yonhap]
Ms. Terry is a smart person, but I don’t understand her perspective on this. If President Trump is going to say something provocative during his trip that is going to upset the Kim regime it doesn’t matter if it happens at Panmunjom or during his planned speech to the National Assembly.
As far as her view of being against military action I disagree with. First of all, I have not heard Trump calling for regime change. President Trump’s comments about totaling destroying North Korea were made in the context of the US or its allies having to defend itself from a North Korean attack.
Secondly there is this drum beat that any military action against North Korea will lead to the destruction of Seoul which I believe is not accurate. In my opinion if the US conducted a limited strike against for example their missile manufacturing facilities, this would not lead to the destruction of Seoul that would potentially kill millions of people. The Kim regime knows destroying Seoul means a regime change war they don’t want.
I believe the Kim regime will respond, but in a more limited fashion that doesn’t lead to full scale war. Some examples are a limited artillery barrage or ballistic missile attack against US military targets. A terrorism attack within South Korea or against USFK personnel. There are many other things the North Koreans could do in response that does not trigger a full war. After their response the Kim regime can turn to the Chinese and the Russians to help them justify their response to the limited US strike to stop a full scale war from happening.
Considering how misinformed Americans are by watching the 24 hour news networks, can you imagine how misinformed the North Korean leadership would be by watching those channels?:
NBC News correspondent Kier Simmons landed a rare interview with a North Korean military official on Thursday and learned that officials in the communist country watch “Morning Joe” specifically for reports and discussions about their country.
Simmons appeared on the MSNBC show Thursday from the border of North and South Korea to share his recent conversation with a North Korean lieutenant colonel that included his belief that President Trump is “mentally ill” and that his country could prevail over the U.S. in war.
“He quite plainly said he believes President Trump is mentally ill,” Simmons told “Morning Joe” co-hosts Mika Brzezinski and Joe Scarborough. “And he was unequivocal in saying he believes North Korea could win a war with America.”
“Be it no doubt that the senior officials here pay attention to what is being said in the U.S.,” Simmons added. “One telling me that he watches ‘Morning Joe’ every day specifically for the segments about North Korea.” [The Hill]
The North Koreans have been getting technical assistance on their weapons programs from somewhere and writer Gordon Chang believes it is China:
China has helped build North Korea’s ballistic missile program by providing important military equipment and technology, a U.S. expert claimed Wednesday.
In an interview on Fox Business, Gordon Chang, an East Asia security expert, said Chinese President Xi Jinping has been “fueling” the regime in Pyongyang with transfers of “very important” weapons, equipment and technology.
“They’re weaponizing the North,” he said, citing the ballistic missile program in particular.
The intercontinental ballistic missiles North Korea fired on July 4 and 28 were transported to their launch sites on Chinese mobile launchers, according to Chang, author of “The Coming Collapse of China.”
“Those mobile launchers make North Korea a real threat because their missiles can now hide,” he said.
Other North Korean missiles launched in August last year and February and May this year also appeared to be variants of China’s JL-1 submarine launched missiles, according to the expert. [Yonhap]
I would not be surprised if these North Korean propaganda leaflets being found in the Seoul area are not being distributed by the North Koreans, but instead South Korean leftist sympathizers:
This photo shows a propaganda leaflet, allegedly from North Korea, that was found on a street near South Korea’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul on Oct. 16, 2017. (Yonhap)
– A number of what appear to be North Korean propaganda leaflets have been spotted inside South Korea’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae and in nearby areas, the office confirmed Monday, prompting suspicions over how they found their way into the highly secured area.
The small propaganda bills were seen scattered on streets near the presidential office, while some were even found in the yard of Chunchugwan, the Cheong Wa Dae press center that sits on the eastern side of the presidential office, according to Cheong Wa Dae security officials.
North Korean leaflets are not hard to find in South Korea while the communist state is said to periodically send leaflets using balloons and unmanned aerial vehicles, but it marked a rare incident for such bills to be found near the presidential office. [Yonhap]
