So will this be the visit where the Trump administration gives in and allows sanctions to be dropped against North Korea for little to nothing in return? I guess we will see:
Mike Pompeo
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s upcoming Pyongyang visit is expected to break the ongoing political stalemate surrounding the timeline of North Korea’s denuclearization, experts said Monday.
The sign of hope comes at a time when no outstanding progress has been made over the issue following the historic June 12 summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
A specific timeline for Pompeo’s visit to the North Korean capital has yet to be confirmed. But with U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton saying recently that Pompeo will “soon” make his fourth visit to Pyongyang, expectations are he will visit the regime sometime between the end of this month and the beginning of next month.
“Pompeo has failed to generate specific outcomes over the denuclearization dialogue with North Korea during his previous visits to Pyongyang,” said Kim Sang-ki, director at the Korea Institute for National Unification’s policy division.
“My view is that his upcoming visit is aimed at creating tangible achievements to put an end to the ongoing deadlock in denuclearization talks with North Korea. In this regard, Washington may push for conditions that would lead to declaring an end to the 1950-53 Korean War.” [Korea Times]
I met a group of NK defectors from SK recently. Asked whether I should refer them as "defectors" or "new settlers" they said smiling: "freed people." https://t.co/I3nupZ52Yu
If DPRK is saying they will allow monitors in and inform ICAO of missile tests, does not bode well for freeze. Perhaps timed to apply pressure on admin to come to agreement with DPRK while hinting could restart tests in future under ICAO monitoring.
As I and many have been saying for years, the Kim regime is not going to denuclearize:
Anchor: A U.S. news Web site says the Trump administration has presented North Korea with a formal timeline for starting the process of denuclearization. The report comes as the U.S. and North Korea are witnessing a stalemate in their nuclear negotiations and Washington seems to have adopted a carrot-and-stick approach towards Pyongyang.
Our Bae Joo-yon has more.
Report: U.S. news Web site Vox reported on Wednesday that Washington had proposed Pyongyang hand over 60 to 70 percent of its nuclear weapons within six to eight months, after which the U.S. or a third party would take possession of the warheads and remove them from the North.
According to the report, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo presented the plan to North Korean negotiators multiple times over the past two months, but the North’s delegation, led by senior official Kim Yong-chol, has turned down Pompeo’s proposal each time.
Vox said that “it’s unclear what concessions, if any, the U.S. would offer in exchange beyond sanctions relief or removing North Korea from the state sponsors of terrorism list.”
Given that Pyongyang has yet to disclose to Washington just how many nuclear bombs it has, it would be difficult to verify the North’s arsenal volume even if it did agree to hand over what it claims to be 60 to 70 percent of its arsenal.
One source told Vox that Pompeo’s main goal in this stage of the negotiations is solely to get Pyongyang to officially reveal how many nuclear weapons it has. [KBS World Radio]
You can read more at the link, but I really hope I am wrong one day about this and the Kim regime decides to give up all their nuclear weapons, but judging from past history and current statements it appears to be unlikely.
What the Kim regime is willing to do is pretend to denuclearize like they did during past US presidential administrations. They will do this to create the myth that “progress” is happening to denuclearize North Korea. In return for pretending to denuclearize the Kim regime would want the sanctions dropped. In such a scenario President Trump would probably get his Nobel Peace Prize for signing a pretend denuclearization agreement, the Moon Jae-in administration in South Korea could then start pumping cash into North Korea, and the Kim regime can then use the funds to hand out cash to the regime elite and further modernize the military.
Signing up to such an agreement may sound ridiculous, but remember the US has signed up for pretend denuclearization deals not once, but twice! The first was the Agreed Framework during the Clinton administration and then the Six Party Talks deal during the Bush administration. Will there be a third one? Time will tell.
The date? Likely early Sept, so Moon can celebrate #NorthKorea's 70th anniversary on 9/9 in Pyongyang, but he has denied #SouthKorea's birthdate of 1948/8/15. Why does SK's own prez deny SK's birthdate, but want to celebrate north's, helping north's claim over the peninsula? https://t.co/sdLqVbtDXO
Here we go again, another year and yet more claims of a food crisis in North Korea. When are people going to learn that the only reason there is a food crisis in North Korea is because of the Kim regime which many governments and organizations continue to enable?:
A heat wave in North Korea has led to rice, maize and other crops withering in the fields, “with potentially catastrophic effects,” the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) said on Friday.
The world’s largest disaster relief network warned of a risk of a “full-blown food security crisis” in the isolated country, where a famine in the mid-1990s killed up to 3 million people. It said the worrying situation had been exacerbated by international sanctions imposed due to North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. [Japan Times]
You can read more at the link, but I wonder if the Moon administration will try and claim that the “food security crisis” is why sanctions should be dropped on North Korea?
I don’t think the North Koreans have to worry about giving up their nuclear science when few people think they will ever actually denuclearize in the first place:
North Korea will not give up its nuclear science even in the event of denuclearization, the country’s Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho said, according to Iranian media reports.
Speaking in Tehran, Thursday, Ri speculated the U.S. will remain hostile toward North Korea even after their leaders held a summit in June and said his country needs a safeguard.
Ri, who arrived in Iran on Tuesday, made his remarks as Pyongyang and Washington accuse each other of dragging their feet in implementing the agreement reached at the summit on the North’s denuclearization.
His remarks also came after the government of U.S. President Donald Trump issued a fresh round of nuclear sanctions against Iran, Tuesday.
The Trump administration previously broke the 2015 nuclear deal among Iran and the six major powers _ the U.S., China, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and Germany. The Tuesday sanctions heightened Iran’s distrust toward the U.S. nuclear policy. [Korea Times]
For the Korea Times’ benefit I will need to educate them on the Iran Nuclear Deal. The deal was never ratified by the US Senate which means all it was, was a personal promise from then President Barack Obama to the Iranians. He is no longer the President which means the current President is not obligated to keep Obama’s personal promise. The Iranians and the six other nations involved with this deal all knew this, but figured Hillary Clinton would be the next President, thus keeping the deal in place for an extended timeframe.
That is why I have always said that any denuclearization agreement reached with North Korea should be ratified by the Senate because then the US is obligated by treaty to follow it.
#breaking Warning from North Korea: “high-level officials within the U.S. administration are making baseless allegations against us and…intensifying international sanctions… there is no guarantee that the hard-won atmosphere of stability on the Korean Peninsula will continue” pic.twitter.com/sEhPkJOPRD
North Korea reiterated its demand Thursday for the United States to agree to declare an end to the 1950-53 Korean War, saying that it would help bring in peace and create mutual trust.
Declaring an end to the Korean War is “the demand of our time” and will be the “first process” toward a peace and security guarantee, the Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the Workers’ Party of Korea, said in a commentary.
The newspaper added that it is “abnormal” to see distrust and animosity going on between the North and the U.S. even now, saying that it is time to take action toward declaring an end to the war. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but the Kim regime wants to end the Korean War and get a peace treaty signed because then that would justify demands to withdraw USFK from the peninsula. With the end of the US-ROK alliance the ROK and North Korea can move forward with their confederation idea which will essentially lead to unification on the Kim regime’s terms.
However, the Trump administration has made it clear that no peace treaty will be offered until real denuclearization happens. Over the coming year I guess we will see who blinks first.
