Category: North Korea

The long speculated on second Trump-Kim summit is set:

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that his second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will be held in Vietnam Feb. 27-28 with the talks to center on dismantling Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.
The date and venue had been shrouded in secrecy as the two countries negotiated the next steps following a vague denuclearization deal reached at their first summit in Singapore in June.
“Much work remains to be done, but my relationship with Kim Jong-un is a good one,” Trump said during his State of the Union address.

Yonhap

I wonder what the Chinese government thinks of the summit being in Vietnam considering their past brief military war and current territorial disputes in the South China Sea? This is a growing indication of how much the US-Vietnam relationship continues to positively develop which I would think the Chinese government would not be happy about.

This shouldn’t come as much of as surprise to people who follow North Korea:

North Korea stepped up restrictions on the use of Chinese mobile networks near the border last year in an apparent effort to control the flow of outside information, human rights organization Amnesty International has said.
In a recent report on North Korea’s human rights situation, the group said the reclusive regime has strengthened efforts to trace the activities of smuggled mobile phones using Chinese networks and block the signals in the border areas over the past few years. 
“Individuals interviewed by Amnesty International in 2018 reported that the situation has not improved despite the recent dialogue between officials from the two Koreas,” it said. “Rather, communications through the Chinese mobile network have become even more difficult and risky in 2018.”

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but as I have always believed the Kim regime is more concerned about subversive information than the threat of US military led regime change.

Why should anyone be surprised by this?:

North Korea has been working to protect its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities from military strikes, according to UN monitors.

Citing a confidential report drafted by UN sanction monitors, Reuters on Monday said the group “found evidence of a consistent trend on the part of North Korea to disperse its assembly, storage and testing locations.”

The North Korean mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the 300-page report, which was submitted to a 15-member UN Security Council sanctions committee on Friday. 

KBS Global

What did the UN expect, Kim Jong-un to lay out his missile and nuclear facilities and equipment in a big open field with an X marks the spot for easy targeting by the US? Of course the North Koreans are going to disperse and then harden all their facilities, they would be fools not to.

So, a regime which engaged in a multi-generational pursuit of nuclear weapons despite every dangled inducement, threat of attack, & promise of prosperity would now relinquish its treasured sword for cash disbursements from an escrow account? This reflects our conceit & ignorance. https://t.co/TOMmMItJvP

— Edward Oh 🇺🇸 (@EdwardHBOh) January 30, 2019

I am not sure there is any size of a “pot of gold” that will make Kim Jong-un completely denuclearize:

The Trump administration is quietly preparing a special “economic package” designed to entice North Korean leader Kim Jong-un into taking specific steps toward dismantling his nuclear weapons program when he and President Trump meet for their highly anticipated second summit.
The initiative, spearheaded by Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun, has already been touted in private working-level talks with the North Koreans and involves creating a kind of escrow account to prove to Mr. Kim that the U.S. and its allies are truly committed to rewarding Pyongyang economically if it comes through on denuclearization, The Washington Times has learned.
While the State Department has not commented publicly, sources familiar with the plan say it centers on securing guarantees for billions of dollars worth of cash contributions from Japan, South Korea, the European Union and others that would go toward North Korean infrastructure and development projects.
“These are guarantees that can be waved under Kim’s nose to assure him of the pot of gold waiting for him on the other side of the rainbow,” said one of the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Washington Times

You can read more at the link, but this “pot of gold” will likely be big enough for Kim Jong-un to “pretend denuclearize” if that is what the Trump administration is interested in.

At least one South Korean expert believes that the Trump administration has shifted its focus to getting rid of North Korea’s ICBMs instead of trying to get them to denuclearize:

Any agreement that U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un make at their second summit must state that “complete denuclearization” of the communist nation is the two sides’ ultimate goal, an expert said Monday.
Hong Hyun-ik, a researcher at Sejong Institute, made the case in a report amid concerns in South Korea that the United States might settle for a deal falling short of complete denuclearization as long as threats to the U.S. are removed, for instance by dismantling the North’s long-range missile capabilities.
Adding fuel to such concerns was a remark that U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made in a media interview earlier this month that the “security of American people” is the ultimate objective of the U.S. in its dealings with the North.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but as I have been saying for years, the Kim regime is not going to denuclearize. The best they are willing to do is sign up for “pretend denuclearization“. However, verifiably eliminating the ICBM threat is a more achievable goal because the Kim regime has not mastered this technology yet and may be more willing to give it up.

However, the Trump administration should also be trying to get rid of the North’s Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM) as well because those are the category of missiles that threaten the US territory of Guam.

Like I’ve been saying, it looks like we are reaching a “cooling tower” moment, a big made for TV spectacle that really means little:

Seoul and Washington last week confirmed that Pyongyang will scrap its Tongchang-ri missile engine test site and launch pad in the presence of international experts, a South Korean diplomatic source said Monday. 

That promise was one of several agreements reached by South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un last September in their third and most recent summit. The regime, however, has stayed quiet on the matter, as nuclear talks between the United States were deadlocked. The silence had left Pyongyang watchers wondering whether the regime would actually follow through and destroy the site.

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but remember the North Koreans already have very capable rocket engines and may not need this missile engine test site anymore. Plus if the did need to test again they can very easily just make a new one. This is all part of their “pretend denuclearization” strategy to get sanctions dropped.

The Kim Jong Un regime spent over $4.4 billion on luxury goods 2012-17. W/ it, #NorthKorea can buy 1.65M tons of rice–2x the shortage.
"North Korea's food shortages are not due to not enough intl aid, but b/c Kim doesn't have the will to feed the people."https://t.co/DHd15WS0tY

— Tara O (@DrTaraO) January 27, 2019

I think this could be interpreted by the North Koreans that the Trump administration is comfortable with a “cooling tower” like spectacle to justify dropping sanctions:

North Korea needs to take a “significant” step toward abandoning its nuclear weapons in order to get sanctions relief from the United States, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton has said.
In an interview with The Washington Times published Friday, Bolton indicated that U.S. President Donald Trump is ready to lift the sanctions on Pyongyang if the regime will signal its sincerity about giving up its nuclear arsenal.
“What we need from North Korea is a significant sign of a strategic decision to give up nuclear weapons and it is when we get that denuclearization that the president can begin to take the sanctions off,” he said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

The threat of regime removal has long been less of a concern for the Kim regime compared to the threat to the regime’s legitimacy from subversive media. The fact they are willing to execute people for watching subversive media is proof of this:

The North Korean government is threatening residents along the border with South Korea with possible execution for being caught watching South Korean media, RFA sources say.
The regime has reportedly held lectures in South Hwanghae province, in the western part of the country, describing severe penalties for the possession of items from wealthy, democratic South Korea.
“In the new year, police officials began hosting lectures all over the province,” said a source from South Hwanghae in an interview with RFA’s Korean Service on Monday.
“The lectures consisted of threats that strictly demand that residents abstain from watching decadent video materials of capitalism and the possessing things like fliers and USB sticks that have found their way in from the South,” said the source.
Activists in South Korea have been known to release balloons laden with money, food, fliers and USB flash drives containing media files, hoping they will land in the North and be found and distributed.  But access to South Korean TV doesn’t always require the discovery of a downed balloon.
“In a recent lecture, they told us they are aware that a growing number of people are able to manipulate the frequencies [of their televisions] to watch South Korean TV programs,” the source said.
“They said that regardless of any individual’s status, those caught in violation could be executed by firing squad. [They want to] instill fear,” the source added.

Radio Free Asia

You can read more at the link.