Category: North Korea

If I was this group I would keep a very low profile because I would not be surprised if the Kim regime is plotting to give their leadership the Kim Jong-nam treatment:

A political group that claimed responsibility for a raid on the North Korean embassy in Madrid last month announced on Thursday it will temporarily cease all activities, but said it will eventually shake the North’s Kim Jong-un regime “to its roots.”

Free Joseon, also known as Cheollima Civil Defense, defined itself in a statement released on its website as an international group composed of North Korean refugees around the world mobilized under the “conviction to break [North Korea’s] dynastic succession under the Kim family.” 

Adding that it had no links to North Korean defectors residing in the South, whose activities are monitored by Seoul, the group also asked international media to stop paying attention to its structure and members for security reasons, since “greater acts lie in store.”

A Spanish High Court investigation report released on Wednesday said 10 assailants from Free Joseon stormed the North’s embassy in Madrid on Feb. 22. Armed with knives and fake guns, the group allegedly stole computers and pen drives reportedly containing sensitive information before successfully escaping to the United States.

Court papers named the mastermind behind the attack as Mexican citizen Adrian Hong Chang, a longtime figure in North Korea-related activist circles in the United States. Upon returning to the United States after the successful raid, Hong apparently tried to offer the information he obtained to FBI officials. It remains unclear whether the FBI accepted the offer, but the State Department denied the U.S. government had any ties to the group on Wednesday. According to Reuters on Thursday, an FBI investigation into the raid is currently in the works.

Hong is said to be one of the co-founders of the North Korea refugee support group LiNK, or Liberty in North Korea, and the head of a strategic consulting firm called Pegasus Strategies LLC, which he described in a published article as a company that uses modern technology to “penetrate closed societies and empower people in those nations.”

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

Here is what well known author and Korea expert Michael Breen has to say about the current efforts to denuclearize North Korea by the Trump administration:

What does North Korea want? North Korea’s leaders may be rational and consistent, but they are opaque, which leads to a lot of guessing about them. One certainty is that they want sanctions lifted. After that, it becomes unclear. Possibility number one is that they want to come in out of the cold, develop their economy and that for this they are prepared to destroy their known nuclear weapons and facilities, but retain the potential to re-arm.

Another possibility is that they plan no real change and are approaching Trump from a risk management perspective. If that is the case, they might serve up a missile launch when Trump announces his plan for re-election. A third possibility is that they still want to unify the peninsula on their own terms and see nuclear weapons as integral to this aim.

These possibilities are not mutually exclusive. But they have one thing in common ― there is a role for nuclear weapons. A fourth possibility ― that North Korea wants to give up being a nuclear power and return to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty with its tail between its legs ― would be nice, but appears to be the least favored by analysts.

It is precisely because it is this last scenario that the U.S. is pushing for that suggests the talks may well fail. I hope I am wrong, but the answer to our question of whether Trump is failing may well be, no, not yet.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but I think it is pretty clear what North Korea wants. First of all they want to keep their nuclear weapons not as a deterrent, but instead to unify the Korean peninsula. Remember their artillery threat on Seoul has been enough of deterrent to prevent a US attack on North Korea for decades. Remember the Kim regime has killed many American troops over the decades with no US counterattack because of this artillery threat.

So clearly the expense and political capital they have put into their nuclear weapons program is intended to give them a military advantage over South Korea. This will all factor into the future confederation that the Kim regime wants to establish with South Korea that they can use their nuclear weapons to help extort the ROK to implement once the US-ROK alliance is ended.

This is why the Kim regime wants “Pretend Denuclearization” in return for dropping sanctions, followed by a peace treaty that would ultimately lead to a US troop withdrawal to make the Confederation under North Korea’s terms fall into place.

Via a reader tip comes this news which I am not sure I believe is actually true:

China and Russia have sent home more than half of their North Korean workers, likely tens of thousands of people, according to reports submitted to the UN North Korean Security Council sanctions committee.

Russia’s report said that the number of North Korean workers with valid work permits decreased from 30,023 to 11,490 persons.
In its report, China, the strongest ally of North Korea, said more of half of its income-earning North Korean nationals had been repatriated.

A UN diplomat confirmed to CNN that one-page reports from Beijing and Moscow were sent to the committee on sanctions, as required by a December 2017 Council resolution demanding repatriation of all North Korean workers by the end of this year. 
Reuters first reported this story. CNN could not immediately confirm the figures given and China has previously been accused of trying to find ways around North Korea sanctions.China’s report also noted that it does not wish for the submission to be made public.

CNN

You can read more at the link, but it appears that there is no corroboration of the claims made by Russia and China that they actually sent these near-slave labor workers home. If they did that would be another major cut in foreign revenue to the Kim regime.

This could also help explain why Kim Jong-Un is reportedly planning a trip to Russia to meeting with President Putin.

Fmr NK diplomat Thae Yong-ho specs NK may've lost encryption decoder(?) in CCD raid of NK embo in Spain. If this gets into US' hands, all source files would've to be changed; NK unable to use crypto comm w dip offices for while. (Forgive compy term botch!)https://t.co/yTDuYnl6JL

— Soo Kim (@mllesookim) March 25, 2019

It appears that either Kim Jong-un is planning a trip to Russia or that his de facto Chief of Staff, Kim Chang-son is just checking in on the sanctions busting schemes they have with the Russians. Russian President Putin has offered to hold an Inter-Korean Summit in Vladivostok before:

A senior North Korean official has left for Vladivostok in Russia’s far east after ending his trip to Moscow in what’s seen as part of preparations for a possible visit there by the North’s leader Kim Jong-un. 
Kim Chang-son, the official with the North’s State Affairs Commission, was spotted at Sheremetyevo International Airport in the Russian capital city at around 2:45 p.m. Saturday (Russia time). 
He was in Moscow for five days. 

Escorted by two guards, he quickly went into the VIP section, while four others who appeared to be accompanying Kim entered the boarding gate. 
The Russian Aeroflot SU 1700 flight carrying Kim took off at 4:10 p.m. and was expected to land in Vladivostok early Sunday. 
The visit by Kim, known as leader Kim Jong-un’s de facto chief of staff, raised speculation that Pyongyang could be making preparations for leader Kim’s first trip to Russia since taking office. 

A vehicle possibly carrying Kim Chang-son was seen coming into the Kremlin every day from Wednesday to Friday, suggesting the official held talks with Russian counterparts over logistics and protocol.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

It almost seems like both sides know they will not reach a deal and are each posturing to blame the other side for its failure:

 U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday he has ordered the withdrawal of new sanctions on North Korea, possibly signaling an intention to continue denuclearization negotiations with the regime.
Trump was initially thought to be referring to sanctions the U.S. Department of the Treasury imposed Thursday on two Chinese shipping companies accused of helping the North evade sanctions.

The Washington Post later reported, citing officials familiar with the matter, that Trump was in fact referring to future sanctions that had been scheduled for the coming days.
The confusion lay in Trump’s announcement on Twitter.

“It was announced today by the U.S. Treasury that additional large scale Sanctions would be added to those already existing Sanctions on North Korea,” he wrote, although no new North Korea-related sanctions were announced Friday.
“I have today ordered the withdrawal of those additional Sanctions!” he said.

The announcement came as negotiations to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons program have hit an impasse following the collapse of last month’s summit between Trump and the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un. White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said in a message to reporters, “President Trump likes Chairman Kim and he doesn’t think these sanctions will be necessary.”

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but I think the Trump administration can now say the ball is in the court of the Kim regime to respond to the US not implementing any new sanctions.

In the meantime it appears the Treasury Department will focus on going after Chinese companies.

Here is the latest article on the North Korean embassy heist in Spain:

The 10 men in dark suits who raided the North Korean embassy in Madrid last month had one goal in mind, it would seem: to overthrow the regime of Kim Jong Un.
Although the scene of the Feb. 22 crime in Spain was many thousands of miles from the DMZ, analysts view the 10 involved as the cutting edge of a North Korean dissident group that’s now named Jayu Joseon, “Free [North] Korea.” It allegedly has the backing of some wealthy Koreans and foreigners as well as ties inside the North—apparently the first organization to have set up an operational challenge to the leadership in Pyongyang.

The immediate purpose of the break-in was to seize computers and cellphones on which intelligence analysts could find top-secret message traffic to the former North Korean ambassador to Spain, Kim Hyok Chol. 
He was expelled by Madrid in September 2017 after the United Nations imposed new sanctions on the North for its nuclear and missile tests. But at the time of the raid last month he had a much more sensitive position: Pyongyang’s envoy to the nuclear talks with Washington and Seoul. (……)

The Madrid 10 are assumed to have transferred the computers and mobile phones to a foreign intelligence agency. An auction to the highest bidder would not be unprecedented in such matters, but most of the suspicion is focused on the CIA, which, if it could access the encrypted material in time, could have found information potentially useful for the Hanoi summit and afterward.

“We can be 99.9 percent sure that Cheollima [Jayu Joseon] carried out the raid,” says Lee Sung-yoon, professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. “They had all the incentive.”
As noted, Ambassador Kim Hyok Chol, after his expulsion, emerged as the North’s chief negotiator in the very difficult pre-summit dialogue with the U.S. envoy on North Korea, Stephen Biegun, and some of the message traffic since his departure from Spain was presumed to concern those talks. The messages may have kept on coming for some time through the embassy in Spain even though he would see them elsewhere. Or at least that may have been the assumption of the Madrid 10.

The Daily Beast

You can read much more at the link.

Whose fault is it that people are starving in North Korea? If they can afford a nuclear and ICBM program the Kim regime can assuredly afford to buy their people food:

Humanitarian activities for millions of hungry and sick people in North Korea are at risk of being scaled back due to economic sanctions and donor fatigue amid nuclear talks between Washington and Pyongyang that struggle to make tangible progress.

One of the world’s poorest countries, with over 43 percent of the population undernourished, the North’s food production touched its lowest point in 10 years last year.

Tough sanctions slapped on the country by a number of countries and international bodies are believed to be deepening the economic recession as they ban its key exports and imports, including fuel and machinery that could be used for enhancing the communist nation’s nuclear capability. 

Such international restrictions adversely affect humanitarian programs, especially the pre-operational procedures as approvals for traveling to North Korea are often delayed. They also hamper the delivery of life-saving assistance as related materials are subject to sanctions waivers that take time to process.

Korea Herald

You can read more at the link, but I would not be surprised if the Moon administration tries to get around sanctions on the Kaesong Industrial Complex by claiming it is a “humanitarian” project. That is why I think the Trump administration is really trying to tighten sanctions to stop people from coming up with ways to get around them.

Hopefully North Korea heeds John Bolton’s warning:

John Bolton, the U.S. national security adviser, warned that North Korea resuming its nuclear and missile testing will “not be a good idea” in a radio interview Sunday. 

Responding to North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui’s recent remarks critical of Washington, Bolton told the WNYM radio in New York, “They issued an unhelpful statement that they’re thinking of going back to nuclear and ballistic missile testing, which would not be a good idea on their part.” 

Last Friday, Choe said Pyongyang may suspend further denuclearization negotiations with the Washington, and that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could rethink the country’s moratorium on nuclear and missile tests. 

Notably, Choe blamed Bolton and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for creating an “atmosphere of hostility and mistrust” that “obstructed” the negotiation efforts by the two countries leaders. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

I agree they may not be preparing for a missile launch in the near term, but they are definitely reconstructing the launch site to prepare for a future launch if needed to pressure the Trump administration:

 South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo said Monday that he does not view North Korea’s recent activities at its long-range rocket launch site as preparations for a missile launch.
Recent media reports and U.S. think tank analyses on activities at the North’s west coast Dongchang-ri launch site and the Sanumdong missile research center near Pyongyang have fueled the speculation about a possible missile or satellite launch.
“Describing them missile-related activities is a hasty judgment,” Jeong said during a session of the National Assembly’s defense committee. “Though Dongchang-ri is a launch site, we don’t judge them as activities in preparation for a missile launch.”

he communist regime has been seen rebuilding the Dongchang-ri missile launch facility it partially dismantled last year. Some analysts said that it might be a negotiation tactic following the breakup of the second summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi last month.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.