Category: Inter-Korean Issues

This is actually what I think the Kim regime wants to happen to justify their long expected nuclear test:

President Yoon Suk Yeol ordered aides to consider suspending a 2018 inter-Korean military tension reduction agreement if North Korea violates the South’s territory again, an official said Wednesday.

Yoon’s remark came after five North Korean drones infiltrated South Korean airspace last week, raising serious questions about South Korea’s readiness posture.

On Wednesday, Yoon was briefed by the presidential National Security Office, the defense ministry, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Agency for Defense Development on the country’s anti-drone preparations.

“President Yoon Suk Yeol instructed the National Security Office to consider suspending the Sept. 19 military agreement in the event North Korea carries out another provocation violating our territory,” senior presidential secretary for press affairs Kim Eun-hye told reporters.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but cancelling the agreement would mean the guard posts, landmines, tank traps, propaganda speakers, etc. could all be reinstalled along the DMZ that prior President Moon had removed. The Kim regime can spend this as a South Korean provocation against peace on the peninsula that they respond with a nuclear test too.

Here is President Yoon’s viewpoint on holding any future Inter-Korean summit:

On whether he has plans to seek a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Yoon said there was no doubt. 

“But I think the people are a little fed up with summits that are for show only,” he said. “We have to start with dialogue on humanitarian issues, and open the door to contact and dialogue between South and North. We have to set a direction by having a certain amount of discussions on both countries’ agendas.”

Yoon added that, while there is no reason to reject a summit, such prior discussions have to take place in order to produce a useful outcome at the summit, and share it with the nation and neighboring countries.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but Yoon does have appoint in regards to accomplishing something from an Inter-Korean summit and not making it just another photo op. Really what has the ROK accomplished from all the prior Inter-Korean summits? The money funneled to North Korea from past summits have allowed the Kim regime to avoid collapse and advance their missile and nuclear programs. Inter-Korean business deals struck have all been reneged on with the Kaesong Industrial Plant and Gumgang Tours all closed now. These summits have been a colossal failure and Yoon appears to not want to add to these failures.

Here is an interesting interview with President Yoon where he is advocating for joint nuclear exercises with the U.S. to off set the North Korean nuclear threat:

President Yoon Suk Yeol has said South Korea is in talks with the United States to carry out joint planning and joint exercises involving U.S. nuclear forces to counter North Korea’s nuclear threats.

In an interview with the Chosun Ilbo newspaper published Monday, Yoon said the idea of the U.S. providing a nuclear umbrella or extended deterrence to South Korea is not enough to reassure the South Korean public.

The interview was published a day after North Korean state media reported leader Kim Jong-un called for “an exponential increase” of his country’s nuclear arsenal, while calling South Korea “our undoubted enemy.” 

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but it will be interesting to see how the U.S. responds to this suggestions from President Yoon. More importantly will this actually do anything to deter the Kim regime from advancing their nuclear weapons program?

Shooting down drones, especially high flying ones with out endangering civilian property is not easy, but it is also not impossible:

President Yoon Suk-yeol on Tuesday criticized the military’s response to North Korean drones that intruded across the inter-Korean border the previous day, saying the incident exposed some problems with South Korea’s readiness.

Speaking at a Cabinet meeting, Yoon said the military should be better prepared for such intrusions by North Korean drones and vowed to create a military unit specializing in unmanned aerial vehicles as part of efforts to strengthen South Korea’s air defense capabilities.

“We have a plan to create a military drone unit tasked with monitoring key military facilities in North Korea. But we’ll expedite the process of creating the drone unit after the incident yesterday,” he said. “We’ll also introduce state-of-the art stealth drones to strengthen our surveillance capability.”

Yoon also voiced regret over the National Assembly’s decision to cut the military budget for anti-drone operations, saying the incident once again showed how dangerous it is to rely on North Korea’s “good faith” and paper agreements for peace.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but it is amazing that funding for anti-drone operations was cut by the National Assembly. Drones is obviously the future of warfare. Their importance can be seen right now in the war in Ukraine. This incident should give President Yoon all the rationale he needs to pour money into the new drone command he wants to establish.

This is an easy provocation for the North Koreans to execute that disrupted flight operations at Incheon and Gimpo International Airports and had the added benefits of causing a South Korean aircraft to crash:

 Suspected North Korean drones crossed the inter-Korean border Monday without South Korea’s permission, officials here said, prompting the deployment of fighter jets, choppers and other assets to shoot them down.

The South’s military detected multiple “unidentified objects,” presumed to be unmanned aerial vehicles, in border areas of Gyeonggi Province from 10:25 a.m., according to an official at the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The vehicles flew across the Military Demarcation Line separating the two Koreas, and were spotted flying in those areas in Gimpo, Ganghwa Island and Paju, leading to temporary suspensions of civilian flights.

The South issued warning messages, fired warning shots, and scrambled fighters, attack helicopters and other warplanes to remove them, while it remains unconfirmed whether the vehicles carry any weapons, the official said.

“We also identified them with our eyes,” the JCS official told reporters on condition of anonymity. “An operation is still ongoing against the vehicles.”

The military also deployed a KA-1 light attack aircraft, but for an unknown reason, it crashed in Hoengseong County, about 140 kilometers east of Seoul, at 11:39 a.m. Both of the pilots escaped safely.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but I have always felt Incheon International Airport is an easy provocation target. It just seems like madness to build something so important to South Korea economically that close to the DMZ. Regardless it is there and North Korea can easily put pressure on the ROK by continuing to disrupt flight operations there if they want to with these low cost drones.

In a game of oneupmanship, the ROK has released a much higher resolution spy satellite photograph of Pyongyang than the one the North Koreans released of Seoul:

South Korea on Thursday released a photo of Pyongyang taken from one of its own satellites after North Korea published imagery of Seoul using what it claimed was a military spy satellite.

The color photo, taken with “land satellite No. 1,” clearly shows Kim Il-sung Square and its surrounding facilities, including a history museum, an art museum and a department store.

By contrast, the North Korean photo released Monday was in black and white, and barely showed the outlines of bridges across the Han River and a port in the western city of Incheon.

The North’s Korean Central News Agency said the camera fitted on the “test-piece satellite” built for military reconnaissance purposes had a resolution of 20 meters.

Experts here said a reconnaissance satellite must have a resolution of at least 0.5m, making the North’s equipment impossible to use for its stated purpose.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but give the North Koreans time and they will probably get a high resolution spy satellite eventually into orbit as well.

It seems like North Korea has been ready to do a nuclear test for a few months. However, it appears they are waiting for the right moment to justify them conducting the nuclear test to mitigate international condemnation. The fact that the ROK has not unilaterally cancelled the Inter-Korean military agreement despite all the provocations in recent months has denied them one of their justifications for the nuclear test:

 Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has said North Korea is ready to conduct a nuclear bomb test, but South Korea and its allies have always been prepared for the North’s major provocation.

“We gather that they are ready,” Han told Britain’s Sky News in an interview, “although we do not know exactly when” a nuclear test would happen.

North Korea has launched a flurry of short- to long-range missile tests so far this year and has widely been expected to carry out what would be its seventh nuclear test.

Han said South Korea and its allies have been on alert over the possibility of North Korea’s nuclear test.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, the Kim regime will eventually find something to justify their test. The real question is what does the U.S. and the ROK do in response?

I mean really what is South Korea going to do in response to a nuclear test that hasn’t already been done in the past? The only thing I see getting the Kim regime’s attention and more importantly President Emperor Xi’s attention, is if the ROK develops their own nuclear capability, which I doubt the U.S. will support. That leaves the ROK with its usual response options of show of forces which has not deterred the North Koreans:

President Yoon Suk-yeol said any new nuclear test by North Korea will be met with an international response “not seen in the past” and called on China to play a greater role to deter the North’s provocations.

Yoon made the remarks in an interview with Reuters, released Tuesday, amid growing concerns the North could conduct its seventh nuclear test after a series of recent missile launches.

Should the North forge ahead with a test, Yoon vowed a response “not seen in the past” by South Korea and its partners.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

The real story here is why would a major underwear company want to work with the Kim regime to smuggle money into North Korea? What did they get in return? Was anyone in the Gyeongi-do government in on this? Are other so called NGOs doing the same thing to circumvent sanctions? That’s what I want to know:

Prosecution took into custody a man suspected of colluding with Ssangbangwool Group to smuggle huge sums of foreign currency into North Korea about three years ago, according to judicial sources.

The Suwon District Prosecutors Office apprehended the chief of the Asia Pacific Exchange Association, a Seoul-based nongovernmental organization, at an unidentified place in Seoul where he was hiding out, on charges of violating the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act.

Prosecutors have been investigating allegations that Ssangbangwool, South Korea’s leading underwear company, secretly sent millions of US dollars to China in 2019 and that the money was sent to North Korea.

They allege that dozens of Ssangbangwool executives and employees took part in the alleged currency smuggling by hiding dollars inside books on their trips to China to deliver them to North Korea.

Prosecutors suspect the man, only identified by his surname An, played a role in the crime.

Ssangbangwool and the NGO are suspected of handing $1.5 million and US$500,000, respectively, to the North.

Prosecutors are also looking into possibility that support funds the NGO received from Gyeonggi Province were part of the money sent to the North.

The province surrounding Seoul provided about 2 billion won ($1.46 million) to the NGO on two occasions between 2018-19 for an event where North Korean officials attended, and delivered flour and saplings to the North.

Korea Herald

You can read more at the link.

In a Taiwan crisis I would be very surprised if the North Koreans did not launch provocations in support of their Chinese allies just to divert U.S. troops and attention to the peninsula:

Seoul “should be fully prepared” for North Korean provocations in the event of a crisis between China and Taiwan, South Korea’s chief diplomat said this week.

Foreign Minister Park Jin, speaking to lawmakers Monday at a briefing for the Foreign and Unification Committee, said North Korea may engage in provocative behavior and exacerbate a potential crisis in the Taiwan Strait.

“Peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is very important for the peace and stability of our Korean Peninsula,” Park said. “Therefore, we would like to continue to work together with the U.S. while firmly maintaining the [South Korea]-U.S. alliance.”

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.