How long have we been hearing that North Korea is going to open up just like China?:
Jim Rogers
Legendary investor Jim Rogers said Monday that the world will face serious economic problems over the next few years, but North Korea’s opening will create a huge economic opportunity for South Korea.
The global guru made the remarks during a press briefing in Seoul hosted by major local brokerage Samsung Securities.
“Many of your trading partners are going to suffer. But you have this opening up, and if you remember what happened in China as it opened and changed, that is going to happen here and you will be the major beneficiary,” the American businessman said.
Pointing out that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un spent his early days in Switzerland and has ample knowledge about the outside world, Rogers projected that Kim will surely open up his economy.
“North Korea has lots of disciplined, educated, very cheap labor and a lot of natural resources. And [South Korea] has lots of capital, management ability and expertise,” he said, adding that the marriage of those factors will create synergy effects to make South Korea “the most exciting country in the world over the next 10 to 20 years.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but what Mr. Rogers seems to forget is that China opened up after the death of Mao Zedong which ended the cult of personality in China. The cult of personality is still alive and well in North Korea with the Kim regime. A Chinese style opening of the economy would threaten the stability of the Kim regime.
It looks like this is turning into yet another event where the North Koreans milk money out of the South Koreans:
A South Korean delegation arrives at the eastern Customs, Immigration and Quarantine Office in Gangwon Province on June 29, 2018, after visiting North Korea to check facilities for the reunions of separated families slated for August. (Yonhap)
North Korean facilities to host the planned August reunions of separated families during the 1950-1953 Korean War are in need of major repairs, a South Korean inspection team said upon returning home on Friday after a three-day visit there.
The 20-strong inspection team involving South Korean government officials and civilian workers crossed the eastern border on Wednesday afternoon to visit Mount Kumgang on the North’s east coast, the venue for the reunions slated for Aug. 20-26.
“South and North technicians did the inspection together, which went smoothly with active support from North Korean officials,” said team leader Kim Byung-dae, a senior official in charge of humanitarian cooperation at the Unification Ministry.
“It’s been quite a while since the last reunion happened in October 2015 there. So there are many places that need fixing,” Kim said, adding the government will do its best to make sure the reunion runs smoothly and to minimize any inconvenience for senior family members. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but I wonder what the bill for these “major repairs” is going to be?
This is an example of why the South Koreans need the US to agree to drop sanctions before they can begin any projects with North Korea:
After the two Koreas agreed on Tuesday to connect their railroads and work together on modernizing the North’s infrastructure, one question looms: Is the project even possible?
If South Korea were to provide North Korea with vehicles, machinery and other equipment for track construction, it would violate United Nations Security Council Resolution 2397, which prohibits the export of industrial equipment to the North. The sanctions, passed unanimously on Dec. 22, 2017, came after the North tested an intercontinental ballistic missile on Nov. 29 of last year.
During the meeting between officials from the two Koreas on Tuesday, both sides agreed to boost cooperation in modernizing North Korea’s rails, stating the end goal was “balanced development of the national economy and co-prosperity.”
South Korean President Moon Jae-in has espoused a grand vision of creating a single market with the two Koreas to lay the foundation for unification, job creation and economic growth in both countries. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read much more at the link, but I expect that the Kim regime will continue to play nice in order to convince President Trump to drop sanctions for little to nothing in return. I would not be surprised if the Kim regime decides to continue to play nice until after the mid-term elections in the US. This will give them an assessment of the landscape in the US moving forward in 2019.
The North Koreans like to use these family reunions to appeal to the emotions of South Koreans which then makes them useful bargaining chips by threatening to cancel them if they don’t get what they want from the ROK government:
A South Korean woman talks with a Red Cross official to see if she can meet with her family in North Korea in this undated file photo. (Yonhap)
South Korea began a process Monday to select those who will meet their long-separated family members in North Korea in late August.
The two Koreas agreed to hold their first family reunion event in nearly three years at the North’s Mount Kumgang resort from Aug. 20-26, a follow-up to the April 27 summit deal.
It would enable 100 South Korean people, mostly elderly ones, to get together with their families across the border, decades after being separated by the 1950-53 Korean War. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but these reunions have also in the past been a cottage industry for the regime to make money by holding them at the Kumgang Resort on the east coast of North Korea. I suspect the regime also is using the reunions to promote the resort in its efforts to get sanctions dropped and tourism reopened to Gumgang resort and other nearby facilities.
I guess we will see how the Moon administration tries to end South Korea’s human rights act since the Kim regime through their state controlled media is demanding it:
North Korea’s state media on Sunday demanded the abolishment of South Korea’s human rights act and a foundation dedicated to its enforcement, arguing they only hamper efforts to improve cross-border ties.
The call came weeks after Seoul closed the office for the state-run foundation due to a yearslong delay in its official launch, which was caused by political hurdles. The government, however, pledged continued efforts for the launch.
“The North Korean human rights act, which the cohorts of (former President) Park Geun-hye manipulated, must be abolished, while the North Korean human rights foundation, an institution designed to plot against our republic, ought to be buried away,” said Uriminzokkiri, a North Korean propaganda website. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but ROK Heads may remember that last the Moon administration closed the ROK government’s office for human rights citing administrative issues.
That's because from what we can see so far, it looks like a really shitty deal — far worse than the Iran JCPOA, far worse than Agreed Frameworks I & II, almost sure to consolidate Kim Jong-un's domestic control, nuclear status & hegemony over South Korea. https://t.co/4qVpZlCYw7
After opening the article bashing the President Trump for the recent Singapore summit, the article then goes on to explain that the summit was a huge success in the opinion of South Koreans:
In South Korea, however, the prism is different. Discussions center less on Trump’s achievements or lack of them, or his failures to live up to his own word, and more on the possibilities his summit opened up — in particular his new relationship with Kim. Which is why they welcome phone calls between the pair.
Singapore was not a failure for many in South Korea, but an opportunity.
According to a Gallup survey of more than 1,000 people two days after the summit, two thirds of the population said they think the Kim/Trump meeting was a success. Only one in 10 thought it a failure. [CNN]
Removing the North Korean artillery from areas along the DMZ would be a huge concession by the Kim regime which is why I would be surprised to see this happen:
Military officials from the two Koreas hold rare talks at the inter-Korean truce village of Panmunjom on June 14, 2018, in this photo released by the joint press corps. (Yonhap)
South Korea proposed that North Korea move its long-range artillery away from the heavily fortified border in an effort to reduce tensions during last week’s rare cross-border military talks, government sources here said Sunday.
During Thursday’s general-grade meeting, the first in more than a decade, Seoul made a series of suggestions, including relocating the artillery pieces to areas 30 to 40 kilometers away from the Military Demarcation Line separating the two Koreas, the insiders said.
The two sides held the talks to follow up on the Panmunjom Declaration from the April 27 inter-Korean summit at the truce village, which calls for joint efforts to alleviate military tensions and “practically eliminate the danger of war.”
“We conveyed our position to the North that in light of consultations between the North and the United States over the denuclearization issue, we have to craft measures to drastically reduce military tensions by removing practical threats,” a source said on condition of anonymity.
“I understand that (the South) suggested moving the North’s artillery that threatens the Seoul metropolitan area to rear areas so as to actively implement the Panmunjom Declaration,” the source added.
According to a 2016 South Korean defense white paper, the North has 14,100 artillery pieces, including 5,500 multiple rocket launchers, a majority of which have been deployed near the border.
Pyongyang is known to possess a variety of rocket systems, including 170 mm-caliber self-propelled howitzers and 240 mm multiple rocket launchers that can easily target Seoul and surrounding areas.
The North’s longer-range 300 mm multiple rocket launcher is seen as more formidable, as it is capable of reaching key U.S. military installations in Pyeongtaek in Gyeonggi Province and the headquarters of the South’s Army, Navy and Air Force in the Gyeryongdae military compound in South Chungcheong Province. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but North Korea’s artillery has been their source of deterrence for decades. If it wasn’t for North Korea’s artillery threat on Seoul a regime change war would have likely happened by now considering the outrageous provocations the Kim regime has committed over the years.
Removing the artillery from its carefully hardened positions on the DMZ would ultimately be a threat to regime security which is why I would be surprised to see this happen.
