Category: Inter-Korean Issues

Notice in the below excerpt that the North Koreans at the Pyongyang summit did not agree to what the State Department has issued in their statement:

“We believe a new process which is supported by all the relevant states is unfolding,” senior presidential press secretary Yoon Young-chan said.
Meanwhile, North Korea’s pledge to take tangible denuclearization measures prompted Washington to immediately extend its hand to Pyongyang for further talks. The invitation comes after weeks of stalled negotiations between the countries.

In the statement, Pompeo stated the U.S. is “prepared to engage immediately in negotiations to transform U.S.-North Korea relations.”

It said Pompeo invited North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho to New York for a meeting and asked Pyongyang to begin denuclearization talks with its new Special Representative Stephen Biegun in Vienna, as soon as circumstances allow.

“This will mark the beginning of negotiations to transform U.S.-North Korea relations through the process of rapid denuclearization of North Korea, to be completed by January 2021, as committed to by Chairman Kim, and to construct a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula,” the statement said.

The location for the proposed U.S. talks with North Korea is home to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

“We believe the symbolic meaning of the location being where the IAEA is headquartered was considered,” South Korea’s nuclear envoy Lee Do-hoon told reporters at the press center for the inter-Korean summit in Seoul.

Meanwhile, some terms in the U.S. statement did not match the joint statement from the Pyongyang summit such as the “permanent dismantlement of all facilities at Yongbyon in the presence of U.S. and IAEA inspectors.”

The statement did not refer to the “reciprocal measure” the North Korea stated the U.S. needed to take before it would permanently shut down its Yongbyon nuclear facility, as stated in the inter-Korean agreement.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but this summit really did not do anything to bring North Korea closer to real denuclearization instead it just advanced the Kim regime’s “pretend denuclearization” initiative.

President Moon has returned to South Korea after a photo shoot with Kim Jong-un on North Korea’s highest mountain, Mt. Paekdu:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in returned home Thursday after a three-day trip to North Korea for his third summit with leader Kim Jong-un.

Moon arrived at Seoul Air Base at 5:36 p.m., about two hours after his flight left North Korea’s Samjiyon airport near Mount Paekdu.

His departure from the North came after a joint trip with Kim to Mount Paekdu that highlighted the success of their bilateral summit in Pyongyang.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but it is expected that President Moon will next turn his attention on President Trump to get him to drop sanctions in return for North Korea’s “Pretend Denuclearization“.

This looks like more of the same from North Korea where they do things that are easily reversible to get major concessions from the US:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un agreed to halt all military acts that could spark conflict along the border, promising to end confrontational relations and the threat of war on the Korean Peninsula.

The two leaders on Wednesday also reaffirmed their commitment to a nuclear free Korean peninsula with North Korean leader Kim promising to invite foreign experts to verify the dismantling of a long-range missile engine testing site. He also offered to shut down the country’s most important nuclear facility – if the United States offers “corresponding measures” in return.

“The South and North agreed to work toward terminating any chance of war and improving the hostile relationship [between the two militaries] in every corner of the Korean Peninsula beyond the demilitarized zone,” read an agreement signed by Moon and Kim, called the Pyongyang Declaration, after a second round of summit talks in Pyongyang.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but notice there is nothing agreed upon about removing the nuclear material and weapons the North Koreans have already stockpiled.  They are just offering to have international inspectors monitor the disassembling of a missile engine test site and shutting down the Yongbyon nuclear facility.  The missile test site can be reconstructed later and the regime may have enough confidence in their rocket engines to not need the site anymore anyway.  The Yongbyon nuclear facility can be restarted up at a time of the Kim regime’s choosing long after sanctions have been dropped and they received the infusion of cash and aid from the Moon administration.  This is the “pretend denuclearization“.

The timing of this summit shows that Moon and Kim are likely betting that the Trump administration will want a supposed foreign policy victory before the US mid-term elections.  I would not be surprised if they do some kind of spectacle of blowing up a launch pad or some other site to further entice the Trump administration to agree to their “pretend denuclearization” strategy.

If the Moon administration gets its way, this magician will not need to turn North Korean currency into US dollars, it will be brought across the border in large quantities for Kim Jong-un:

South Korean magician Choi Hyun-woo is expected to perform in front of the leaders of the two Koreas, with Cheong Wa-dae announcing on Monday that Choi was in the South’s delegation.

“I am not sure about the specifics (where and when I am going to present my show), as the news came as surprise,” Choi told CBS radio, Tuesday morning just before leaving for Pyongyang.

He said he planned to engage North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in his show.

“I cannot reveal which magic performances I’m going to present at the show, but I’m planning to create scenes that I hope show the ‘miracle of inter-Korean unity,'” he said.

He was not sure whether he would do a similar trick to one performed by a North Korean magician ― turning North Korean currency into a U.S. dollar.  [Korea Times]

President Moon received a lavish welcome in Pyongyang:

President Moon Jae-in began talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to seek momentum in denuclearization, following his arrival in Pyongyang for a three day summit, Tuesday.

Their first talks of the third summit took place at the headquarters of the Workers’ Party of North Korea (WPK) in Pyongyang for 90 minutes starting at 3:30 p.m.

Seoul’s spy chief Suh Hoon and National Security Office (NSO) head Chung Eui-yong attended, while the North was represented by Kim Yong-chol, a senior ruling party official and the first lady Kim Yo-jong, according to presidential secretary Yoon Young-chan in a media briefing at a main press center set up in Dongdaemun, Seoul.

This is the first time a South Korean president has been to the WPK headquarters, where Kim’s office is located. President Moon is also the first head of state to hold a summit with Kim in Pyongyang since the latter took power.

“From that perspective, we believe this is great hospitality that has never been seen before, as Kim flew to China and Singapore for summits with other leaders,” Yoon said.

“The leaders of the two Koreas undertook a comprehensive review of key pending issues that need to be addressed properly. The two also searched for specific ways to advance various inter-Korean projects. However, South Korea is committed to abiding by all U.N. Security Council sanctions, and the talks for greater economic cooperation with the North were done in accordance with these,” Yoon said.  [Korea Times]

So how is getting Kim Jong-un to denuclearize going?  About as we all expected:

While getting a specific timeline and details for North Korea’s denuclearization is at the top of President Moon’s agenda for the summit, Yoon said it was highly unlikely the two would agree on a detailed timeframe towards a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.

“We can figure it out, but we have to wait,” he said.

When it comes to denuclearization it is always we have to wait, but when it comes to giving the Kim regime concessions they always have to happen now.  Here is what else President Moon had to say:

Before his departure for Pyongyang, President Moon said he was seeking “permanent peace,” which is irreversible and can be sustained regardless of external factors.

The quickest way to permanent peace is to surrender, which is essentially what Moon’s confederation idea is.

President Moon’s approval rating is down to 49% and people are more skeptical of his North Korea policies since the first Kim-Moon summit:

“Our people are beginning to learn that North Korea will not easily give up its nukes, something that many experts had already repeatedly predicted,” said Kim Taewoo, former president of the government-funded Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.

Moon may face increasing difficulties if his summit with Kim in Pyongyang fails to make tangible progress on efforts to get North Korea to scrap its nuclear weapons program.

Economic woes such as a lackluster job-market growth and soaring real estate prices are compounding Moon’s problems, adding to opposition to his North Korea policy, many experts say.

“If Moon fails to address economic problems, he can’t maintain public contentment with his government only with his North Korea policy,” said Nam Sung-wook, a professor at Korea University. “If the economy gets worse, many people will demand that Moon stop looking to North Korea and start resolving our own economic problems.”  [Stars & Stripes]

I expect that President Moon will try and get the Kim regime to do some big spectacle to impress the South Korean domestic audience and President Trump that progress is being made on denuclearization.  Something Kim Jong-un’s father, Kim Jong-il did was demolish a nuclear cooling tower to impress President Bush back in 2008.  The strategy worked because the Bush administration cut a deal with Kim.

The old cooling tower was easily replaceable and did nothing to stop North Korea’s nuclear program.  Kim the younger could try some kind of similar spectacle as well to make people believe in his “pretend denuclearization” strategy.

Moon says #SouthKorea can trade rice for #NorthKorea's coal, raw material, rare earths. But coal, titanium, iron, gold, nickel, etc are all banned. But he already violated sanctions by importing #NK coal, providing oil to #NK, etc, w no consequences. So he'll press on. https://t.co/dCL5dzgK6x

— Tara O (@DrTaraO) September 12, 2018

At best, a conduit for N Korean diktat & S Korean self-censorship. More likely a cradle of comingling coffers for coddling Kim, dodging sanctions, & breeding anti-US, anti-Japanese sentiment. https://t.co/9Qz4i5rRB3

— Sung-Yoon Lee (@SungYoonLee1) September 14, 2018

It will be interesting to see how many more requests General Brooks will be receiving from the Moon administration to send materials across the border:

The U.S.-led United Nations Command (UNC) authorized South Korea vehicles and personnel to cross the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) to support construction of communication infrastructure that will be used in inter-Korean business projects.

“Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, Commander of United Nations Command, authorized vehicles and personnel from the Republic of Korea to cross the Military Demarcation Line today in the eastern transportation corridor to support construction of communication infrastructure to be used between the Republic of Korea and North Korea,” said the UNC press release, Thursday.

“The approval allows more material than what is needed to repair communication lines, and will result in the construction of a communication building.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Here is the latest on the opening of the Inter-Korean office at Kaesong:

South and North Korea launched their joint liaison office on Friday, securing a platform for round-the-clock communication that is expected to help foster cross-border exchange and ease tensions.

The liaison office was launched in the North’s border town of Kaesong, with around 50 people each from the two Koreas attending the opening ceremony.

The move is a follow-up on an agreement that the leaders of the two Koreas reached in their April summit to run such an office on hopes that the office will serve as a communication channel to help facilitate inter-Korean cooperation on various fronts.

“The inter-Korean joint liaison office is a channel for round-the-clock communication in the new era of peace,” South Korea’s Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon said in a congratulatory speech.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link but according to the article South Korea will have around 20 people working there.