#MoonJaein openly and continually violates sanctions. Is it time for the #UN and the #US to add him to the lists of sanctioned individuals? https://t.co/VMdP7j5xsX
— Gordon G. Chang (@GordonGChang) January 16, 2019
If the ROK Foreign Minister is to believed it appears the US will be offering a peace treaty and humanitarian aid in return for denuclearization steps:
Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha referred to ending the Korean War, establishing a communication channel between North Korea and the U.S., and humanitarian aid as possible measures that Washington could offer Pyongyang for taking denuclearization steps.
Korea Times
“Various options are being discussed as corresponding measures,” Kang told reporters in a briefing at the foreign ministry, Wednesday.
However, on resuming operations at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex (GIC) or tours to Mount Geumgang, which had drawn attention as possible reciprocal measures, Kang said such these “were not at a stage of being reviewed.”
You can read more at the link, but as I have said before a Korean War peace treaty is something that North Korea has long sought as a way to end the presence of US troops in South Korea. If there is peace why is USFK needed?
President Moon has been saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed, to include claiming Kim Jong-un understands this as well. However, this is likely just rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against a peace treaty.
Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down. If he openly advocated for a USFK withdrawal, that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces. That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.
Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju. President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.
Who suggested late Feb? 3/1/1919 was Korea's anti-Japanese movmt. Moon/his party deny 8/15/48 as SKorea's birth (as liberal democracy/mkt econ), instead says 1919 "provisionl govt" in China. Moon plans big event on 3/1 & KJU may join to reap image victory. SK people aghast. https://t.co/4TYMwm68Ij
— Tara O (@DrTaraO) January 19, 2019
NKorea sent letters to labor unions (KCTU & FKTU) in SKorea, stating "firmly defeat foreign power intervention in..minju issues" & be on the frontline for unification. A unified Korea that is liberal democracy or illiberal democracy (people's democracy)?https://t.co/aJCYvnZGE8
— Tara O (@DrTaraO) January 17, 2019
If Kim Jong-un was going to visit on any day, I am sure the Moon administration would love for it to be March 1st. The hope will be that conservative protesters against Kim’s visit will be muted because of a large dislike of the Japanese in South Korea that tends to reach a crescendo on the March 1st Independence Day which celebrates an uprising against Japanese colonial occupation back in 1919.
Is North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visiting Seoul on March 1?
Korea Times
Reports of this began circulating Wednesday, citing unidentified government sources. Some had plausible details: for the leaders of the two Koreas to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the March 1 Independence Movement Day ― on the date and at the same location.
The uprising on March 1, 1919 ― celebrated by both Koreas ― is recorded as one of the marquee grassroots independence movements during the 1910-45 Japanese colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula.
Presidential office Cheong Wa Dae on Thursday denied reports that Kim would visit Seoul on the historically symbolic day. Nevertheless, the speculation continues.
You can read more at the link, but if this visit does in fact happen I would expect there to be a large anti-Japanese buildup to try and unite most South Koreans before the Kim Jong-un visit.
Neither Seoul nor Pyongyang will pass up this opportunity to reinforce "Uri minjok kkiri" (By the Korean People Exclusively) kinship vs foreign imperialists of the past & imagined present. Pyongyang's narrative will be more restrained, as Kim Il Sung was all of 7 yrs-old in 1919. https://t.co/5XaMfniT7F
— Sung-Yoon Lee (@SungYoonLee1) January 11, 2019
The former deputy North Korean ambassador to the United Kingdom who defected from the Kim regime had this to say about Kim Jong-un’s recent New Year’s speech:
Thae Yong-ho, one of the highest-ranking North Korean defectors in the South, told reporters in Seoul on Tuesday that Kim’s speech had two strategic purposes. These are to drive a wedge between South Korea and the United States in regards to economic cooperation with the North, and to complicate the verification process of North Korea’s denuclearization by initiating multilateral negotiations over a formal peace treaty to end the 1950-53 Korean War.
Joong Ang Ilbo
“If summarized in a single sentence, Kim Jong-un’s address shows he wants to narrow down the scope of the nuclear negotiations between the United States and North Korea to arms reduction and push off international sanctions, while retaining the status of a nuclear-armed country,” Thae said.
According to Thae, who used to be North Korea’s deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom, the “new path” Kim mentioned the North would take if the United States does not respond with corresponding measures to its denuclearization efforts would be a return to its old pattern of making nuclear provocations. In the speech, Kim said the North would not “make and test nuclear weapons any longer nor use and proliferate them.” Thae said “a new path” would mean reneging on this pledge.
You can read more views at the link, but the consensus seems to be building that Kim Jong-un does not plan to denuclearize and instead inspects the Trump administration to drop sanctions first.
This is all in line with the “pretend denuclearization” strategy that I believe the North Korean’s are hoping to achieve. Once sanctions are dropped the regime will be flushed with cash that it can then funnel back into its weapons programs. While doing this they can do superficial things to give the appearance of heading towards denuclearization without actually fully denuclearizing.
They will drag this out as long as possible and then by the time someone calls them out on their duplicity, they will make up reason to blame the US for the breakdown in the agreement. By the time this happens they hope to have an agreement to end the Korean War in place and US troops withdrawn from the peninsula.
The regime is betting that by this time the US and the international community will just want to treat them like Pakistan and let them keep their nukes because it isn’t worth the trouble to forcefully make them denuclearize. By keeping the nukes this then allows them over time to coerce the ROK into the confederation agreement they have been demanding to implement.
Kim Jong Un wrote a two-page new years letter to Moon Jae-in today. In it he:
— Chad O'Carroll (@chadocl) December 30, 2018
– Expressed regret for not visiting Seoul in 2018
– Said wanted to meet Moon 'frequently' in 2019
– Would work w/ Moon for "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula together"https://t.co/QJqMKnMg5e pic.twitter.com/8cJahPQar5
The Kim regime keeps telling the Moon administration that it is time to forget the international community and just go ahead and break sanctions:
A senior North Korean official called on the two Koreas on Wednesday to go their own way without being swayed by outside influence in pushing for an ambitious inter-Korean project to modernize and reconnect railways and roads over their border.
Yonhap
Kim Yun-hyok, the North’s vice railway minister, made the remarks at the project’s groundbreaking ceremony that the two Koreas jointly staged at Panmun Station in the North’s border town of Kaesong.
“It is time to firm up our determination until we can hear the strong sound of a ‘reunification whistle’ and go forward without vacillation in the face of headwinds,” Kim said.
“Whether to make an achievement in the North-South railway and road project depends on our people’s determination and willingness. A unified federation that Korean people want cannot be realized ever if we mind how others think,” he added.
You can read more at the link.
For any North Korea apologist out there reading this, can you tell me why the Kim regime cannot afford Tamiflu, but they can afford a nuclear weapons program?:
South Korea will send the flu medicine Tamiflu to North Korea as part of an inter-Korean cooperation project on influenza prevention.
KBS World Radio
Seoul’s Unification Ministry unveiled this plan on Friday and said it will notify the North on related plans in the near future and begin working-level talks to discuss details.
Speaking to reporters after working group discussions with the U.S. held in Seoul Friday, chief nuclear envoy Lee Do-hoon said the issue of providing Tamiflu to North Korean residents has been settled.
You can read more at the link.
