Category: Inter-Korean Issues

Ambassador Harris continues to upset the Moon administration, but what did he say was inaccurate?:

The office of President Moon Jae-in openly reproached U.S. Ambassador Harry Harris for his remark on Moon’s stated plans to resume inter-Korean cooperation, calling it “very inappropriate.”

“It’s very inappropriate for the ambassador to make such a mention for media over remarks by the president of the hosting nation,” a Cheong Wa Dae official told reporters.

The official stressed that inter-Korean cooperation is a matter to be decided by the South Korean government, although Seoul is “always” in close consultation with Washington in making constant efforts for substantive progress in inter-Korean ties and the early resumption of dialogue between the United States and North Korea.

A spokesperson at the U.S. Embassy declined to comment directly on the presidential aide’s remarks.

“We are aware of the comment,” he told Yonhap News Agency. “We have nothing to offer at this time, and would refer you to Ambassador Harris’ recent public comments.”

Harris reportedly urged Seoul to hold prior consultations with Washington in its pursuit of allowing its nationals to make “individual” tours of Mount Kumgang on North Korea’s east coast.

It’s “better” to run such an issue “through the working group” to avoid “misunderstandings” that might trigger sanctions, he reportedly told a group of foreign reporters here, referring to a working-level consultation channel between the allies on North Korea affairs.

His remarks were viewed by many as a thinly veiled warning and an attempt to put pressure on the Moon administration as it seeks to jump-start inter-Korean projects that are unaffected by U.N. sanctions on the communist neighbor in a bid to help facilitate Pyongyang-Washington nuclear talks.

Yonhap

Essentially all Ambassador Harris is telling them is that before they attempt to do any projects with North Korea they better work it through the U.S. or face violating sanctions. It is pretty clear what the Moon administration is trying to do is find a way to get around the North Korean sanctions and Ambassador Harris is calling them out on it publicly.

It will be interesting to see if the Trump administration responds to President Moon’s advocacy for South Korea to break international sanctions on the North:

President Moon Jae-in stressed the need Tuesday to expand inter-Korean cooperation, saying it could be conducive to drumming up international support for sanctions relief for the communist neighbor.

Speaking at his New Year’s press conference, he made it clear that South Korea will not sit idle waiting for Pyongyang-Washington dialogue to bear fruit.

“If (we) broaden cooperative ties between South and North to the maximum, it would not only facilitate North Korea-U.S. dialogue but also help win international support in connection with some exemptions or exceptions to sanctions on North Korea,” the president said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but the term “inter-Korean cooperation” is code for restarting the Kaesong Industrial Park and Gumgang Resort tours which were both cash cows for the Kim regime. Essentially what President Moon is advocating for is continuing to fund the North Korean military machine with no reciprocal denuclearization agreement in place. Agreements like this is what allowed North Korea to become a nuclear menace in the first place and Moon wants double down on this policy.

Long time Korea analyst Victor Cha is making some bold predictions:

But there is bigger storm brewing behind these dark clouds that is threatening to the core of the U.S.-South Korea alliance. It has three components. The first is a nuclear deal with North Korea that is almost certain before Christmas now that John Bolton, the most influential voice in the Hanoi summit’s collapse, is out of the White House. This deal will probably not be a good one, in that its scope will be limited mostly to the Yongbyon nuclear facility; it will not be verifiable; and the U.S. will give too much in lifting sanctions. 

But both presidents Moon Jae-in and Donald Trump, who have both staked so much of their credibility on a deal with Kim, will not just accept a suboptimal deal, but will declare with it an end to hostilities on the Korean Peninsula in the form of a peace declaration. (……)

The perfect storm in the winter of 2019-2020, therefore, is a peace deal with North Korea and a failed cost-sharing negotiation that causes Trump to act on his beliefs. Specifically, his anger over Seoul’s refusal to pay no more than a fraction of the demand, coupled with an end-of-war declaration, will cause Trump to act on his 30-year long instinct to draw down or fully withdraw forces from South Korea. As ludicrous as this scenario may sound to experts, Trump would boast that the deal with North Korea is the “best deal ever” with his good friend Kim Jong-un; that he has ended the Korean War; and that he can now “bring the boys home” because there is peace in South Korea and the “ungrateful” South Koreans do not want to pay for U.S. troops. Moreover, he will tell his political base during the campaign that this move is saving money wasted on foreigners and therefore he is putting “America first.”

Chosun Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

This is just the trial balloon for what I expect to be a Moon administration strategy to aid North Korea if a denuclearization deal isn’t struck with the U.S. The ROK will just call all aid “humanitarian aid” in order to avoid sanctions:

The Seoul city government has become the first local government in South Korea to win the right to independently carry out humanitarian aid projects for North Korea, a unification ministry official said Tuesday.

Last month, the government revised related regulations to allow local governments to act as independent aid providers to the North. Previously, they had to join hands with private entities to engage in humanitarian activities for the North.

Yonhap via a reader tip

You can read more at the link.

The case of the repatriation of two North Koreans that supposedly murdered 16 other fishermen before defecting to the South continues to cause controversy:

In the investigation that followed, the two North Koreans asked to defect to South Korea, but the government eventually chose to repatriate the two sailors. 

They were handed off to the North’s authorities through the Koreas’ land border at Panmunjom on Thursday, while the boat they used was also given back to the North on Friday. 

Given the extraordinary circumstances of the case – unprecedented in inter-Korean history – the decision to expel the sailors continues to be subject to heavy controversy over its legality. 

Lawmakers of the main opposition Liberty Korea Party, who were the first to make the issue public before the government announced the expulsion decision, raised doubts as to just how three people were able to murder 16 others on a small boat, which measured only around 15 meters (49 feet) long and weighed 17 tons, and were able to evade North Korea’s own naval surveillance to escape to the South. 

South Korea’s lack of a judicial procedure on the alleged crime also invited protests from civic groups, which cited that the sailors had the right to a trial given that the South Korean Constitution does not recognize North Korea and considers all its residents as citizens of South Korea.

To these questions, the Unification Ministry said South Korea’s regulations governing refugees from North Korea also explicitly forbids Seoul from giving shelter to North Koreans who have committed “serious non-political crimes” which include murder, terrorism or illicit drug trafficking.  

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but it seems to me that if these two legitimately admitted to murdering 16 people, are these two really refugees that citizens in the ROK would want to harbor? The question becomes did they legitimately admit to the murders or did the ROK government simply take the word of the North Korean government before handing them over?

Yes it is probably a good idea to plan for a provocation cycle after the New Year because it is does not appear any denuclearization deal is close to being negotiated:

The United States is trying hard to coax North Korea into restarting nuclear talks, as South Korea is also quite “serious” about the year-end deadline set by Pyongyang, a top Cheong Wa Dae official said Sunday.

The North has emphasized that the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump should change tack and put forward fresh offers based on a “new calculation method” by the end of this year or face an end to the already troubled dialogue process itself.

Regarding the North’s own deadline, “The South Korean government is also keeping an eye on (relevant situations) quite seriously,” Chung Eui-yong, head of the presidential security office, told reporters. (…….)

South Korea is also coordinating closely with the U.S. so that denuclearization talks can proceed smoothly, getting “various contingency plans” ready for use, he said without elaborating.

The South Korean government’s position is that security conditions on the peninsula should never return to the level before 2017.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but I would not be surprised if the Moon administration’s response to a North Korean provocation would be to unilaterally violate sanctions to pay off the Kim regime and say it is for humanitarian reasons.