Category: Inter-Korean Issues

It might be time for the ROK to start flying propaganda drones over Pyongyang again in response. This has clearly been something that got the Kim regime’s attention the last time they did it:

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said the trash-loaded balloons were sent across the border between Saturday night and early Sunday and the fallen objects were household waste, such as paper and vinyl, and included no hazardous items.

The number of dropped items does not necessarily correspond to the number of balloons, as each balloon, which measures approximately 2 to 3 meters in diameter and 3 to 4 meters in length, usually contains several smaller bags.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

In my opinion the blowing up of the two roads by North Korea is more performative for the ROK and international media than anything of substance between the two Koreas. I doubt President Yoon is going to lose any sleep over this:

North Korea blew up the northern sections of two inter-Korean roads, Tuesday, in an apparent attempt to sever all ties with South Korea and formalize a hostile, two-state system on the Korean Peninsula.

“North Korea exploded parts of the Gyeongui and Donghae roads north of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) at around noon,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said in a message sent to reporters.

Gyeongui Road, which linked the two Koreas in the western part of the country, was primarily used by businesspeople operating factories at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex in the North. Meanwhile, Donghae Road along the east coast was utilized by tourists visiting North Korea’s Mount Geumgang.

The JCS said it fired several shots south of the MDL after the road explosions, adding it has intensified its readiness and surveillance posture. South Korea’s military had already observed on Monday that Pyongyang was preparing to destroy the road.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but these two roads have not been used for many years after the closing of the Kaesong Industrial Complex near Panmunjom and the ending of tours to the Kumgang Resort on the east coast. So blowing them up is meaningless and if for some reason one of these two inter-Korean projects were to get restarted the road can easily be repaired probably with ROK money.

North Korea had nothing to lose from this provocation and gained yet again wide media attention which means they achieved thier objective with this stunt.

It looks like the ROK government may have come up with their response to North Korea’s trash balloon attacks even though they deny it:

 North Korea said Sunday it has ordered its artillery corps near the border with South Korea to fully prepare to shoot after the North threatened a “horrible disaster” over the alleged flight of drones over its capital.

North Korea claimed the South had sent unmanned drones over Pyongyang three times this month. 

In a statement carried by its state media, Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of the North’s leader Kim Jong-un, said the North was ready to take a “strong corresponding retaliatory action” in case drones carrying anti-Pyongyang materials are flown again into the North, warning that the “attack time” can come at any time.

In response, South Korea’s defense ministry said any attempts by the North to harm its people would result in the end of the Kim regime. 

On Friday, North Korea’s foreign ministry claimed that South Korean drones carrying leaflets were detected in the night skies over Pyongyang on Oct. 3, as well as Wednesday and Thursday of this week, and threatened to respond with force if such flights occur again. South Korea’s Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun initially denied that the military had sent any drones across the border, but the Joint Chiefs of Staff later said it could not confirm whether the North’s claims were true.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but I wonder if the activist group Fighters for a Free North Korea flew this drone with a wink and a nod from the ROK government?

This is really just symbolic because the road and railway lines are not being used anyway:

North Korea’s military said it will cut off all roads and railways connected to South Korea starting Wednesday and build “strong defense structures” in the areas in response to South Korea-U.S. military maneuvers.

“A project will be launched first on October 9 to completely cut off roads and railways connected to” South Korea and “fortify the relevant areas of our side with strong defense structures,” the general staff of the North Korean People’s Army (KPA) said in a report carried by the Korean Central News Agency, noting the measures will “completely separate” North Korea’s territory from that of South Korea.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but North Korea is probably betting that whenever another leftwinger gets elected to President of South Korea they will pay to rebuild these road and rail links anyway.

The Korea Times has an article published that discusses what little options South Korea has to deter North Korea’s trash balloons:

Complicating matters for them is the apparent shift in North Korea’s intentions behind the balloon launches. Initially, Pyongyang claimed the balloons were in retaliation against anti-North Korean leaflets sent by South Korean civic groups, many of which consist of defectors from the North.

“The regime has continued the balloon campaign even after the leaflet launches stopped. This suggests that the balloons are now a tit-for-tat response to South Korea’s use of loudspeakers along the border,” Yang said.

In late July, South Korea resumed propaganda broadcasts across the border in response to the balloon launches. These broadcasts operate simultaneously from fixed loudspeakers in the border regions at full volume.

A military official said that the broadcasts are still operating from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. but declined to provide further details, citing operational secrecy.

“Instead of blasting the broadcasts day and night, our military should use the broadcasts more flexibly depending on the North’s behavior, such as switching them on only when it launches the balloons and turning them off when it remains silent for days,” Cho said.

Yang suggested that an ideal scenario would be for both Koreas to agree to a moratorium on psychological warfare, although this seems unlikely given their hawkish stances and the absence of a communication channel.

The professor also mentioned the possibility of international organizations such as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) — where both South and North Korea are member states — mediating to ease tensions caused by the balloons.

He added, “Unless the government takes swift action, we are going to see thousands of more balloons since conditions are becoming more favorable for North Korea’s balloon launches, with winds blowing southward in the fall.”

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but I don’t think North Korea has any intentions of stopping the trash balloons. It is a low cost gray area provocation for them that is providing them valuable military intelligence on where these balloons are landing while disrupting South Korean society. This disruption is putting pressure from the public on the Yoon administration to do something when there is really not much they can do.

The ROK military claims stern measures will be taken if North Korea’s trash balloons start causing fires:

South Korea’s military on Monday vowed to take “stern” military measures should North Korea “cross the line” with its ongoing trash balloon campaign or inflict serious damage to the South Korean people.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) made the remark in a statement in response to the North’s repeated launch of trash-carrying balloons across the border, including those attached with timer devices that could potentially cause fires.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but it sounds like an empty threat to me. Really what is the ROK going to do in response, launch their own balloons that start fires in North Korea?

ROK authorities need to put this guy away for a very long time to deter anyone else from leaking information like this. Hopefully none of these ROK agents were killed due to these leak:

The defense ministry’s prosecutors’ office on Tuesday indicted a military intelligence official for allegedly leaking information of South Korean espionage agents operating overseas.

The official at the Korea Defense Intelligence Command, whose identity is withheld, was arrested earlier this month on allegations of handing over personal information of “black agents” to a Chinese national of Korean descent, who is possibly an informant for North Korea’s intelligence agency.

The defense ministry said the prosecutors indicted the official on charges of aiding the enemy, bribery and violating the Military Secrets Protection Act, believing that the individual leaked confidential information in exchange for financial gains.

Korea Herald

You can read more at the link.

President Yoon’s comments are definitely not going to go over well with the Kim regime:

 President Yoon Suk Yeol unveiled a vision for unification with North Korea on Thursday, pledging to expand outside information in the reclusive nation and proposing an official dialogue channel that can “take up any issue.”

Yoon made the remark in an address marking Liberation Day, which celebrates the 1945 end of Japan’s colonial rule, saying, “Complete liberation remains an unfinished task” as the Korean Peninsula still remains divided.

“The freedom we enjoy must be extended to the frozen kingdom of the North, where people are deprived of freedom and suffer from poverty and starvation,” Yoon said. “Only when a unified free and democratic nation rightfully owned by the people is established across the entire Korean Peninsula will we finally have complete liberation.”

Yoon laid out three key tasks for unification: defending freedom in South Korea from fake news and other destabilizing elements, bringing about changes in North Korea through human rights improvements and outside information, and strengthening cooperation with the international community.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but the statement about bringing in outside information into North Korea likely means the propaganda balloon launches will continue. The fact that North Korea gets so angered by the balloon launches demonstrates that they must be having an effect.

North Korea has enough money to build nuclear weapons, ICBMs, and a space program; I am sure they can find funding if they wanted to provide aid to these flood victims. Additionally if the ROK did provide aid how could they monitor it is actually going to the flood victims and not the military?:

South Korea on Thursday proposed providing humanitarian aid to North Korea over damage from the recent downpours in its northern border areas along the Amnok River, as the North is believed to have sustained huge casualties.

The unification ministry said it is willing to urgently support the North Korean flood victims with the necessary supplies from a humanitarian and fraternal perspective through the Korean Red Cross.

“We are ready to discuss the items, scale and method of support with the North Korean counterpart. We expect North Korea’s swift response,” said Park Jong-sul, secretary general of the Korean Red Cross, expressing his “deep sympathy” for the victims.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Incheon International Airport has always been a major vulnerability for South Korea and here is another example of that:

North Korea’s recent campaign of launching trash-carrying balloons toward South Korea has disrupted operations of Incheon International Airport, the South’s main gateway, on 12 occasions, a lawmaker said Tuesday, citing government data.

According to data from the Seoul Regional Aviation Administration submitted to Rep. Yang Bu-nam of the main opposition Democratic Party, runways at the airport have been shut down for a total of 265 minutes across 12 occasions due to the balloons sent from North Korea.

The first disruption incident occurred from 10:48 p.m. to 11:42 p.m. on June 1, four days after North Korea first began launching the balloons. The most severe disruption occurred on June 26, when runways were shut down on eight occasions, resulting in 166 minutes of halted takeoffs and landings.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.