Category: China

Condom sales slump as China announces end to one child policy https://t.co/XmdNcKMyrb pic.twitter.com/c9ibMA8zVT

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) November 1, 2015

#Breaking Chinese Premier #LiKeqiang meets with Japanese PM Shinzo Abe in Seoul at the request of Japan. pic.twitter.com/Gjc6uYul5O

— CGTN (@CGTNOfficial) November 1, 2015

That is what the below article in the Daily Beast is speculating on.  I have said this for a long time that if the Kim regime was to collapse the South Koreans are going to have immediately move to secure North Korea before the Chinese do.  It should also be done without US troops.  US troops moving north just legitimizes Chinese intervention into North Korea.  Once the Chinese are in the ROK government may never get them out:

At the beginning of last week, Seoul launched a new round of China diplomacy to encourage Beijing to play a “constructive role” in denuclearizing North Korea. Optimally this marks a new era of cooperation between Seoul and Beijing, but it could also be part of a process leading to China’s colonization of the North.

The move follows President Park Geun-hye’s controversial trip to the Chinese capital in early September to participate in the military parade marking the 70thanniversary of the end of World War II. Washington, worried that South Korea was making itself a Chinese satellite, had tried to discourage her from attending the event.

Short of extraordinary measures, there is little the U.S. can do about Park’s increasingly visible tilt to China. Her mission is to seek the peaceful reunification of the two Koreas—her so-called Dresden Initiative announced in March of last year—and she has moved to enlist the Chinese by charming them into cooperation, seeking to engage them at every opportunity.

Park’s efforts to woo China look like they are paying off. Seoul, not Pyongyang, is Beijing’s friend these days on the Korean Peninsula. It is telling that Xi Jinping traveled to Seoul in July 2014, the first time a leader of the People’s Republic visited the South before going to the North. And in fact, he has yet to visit Pyongyang, the capital of his country’s only formal military ally, in his position as China’s president.

Despite all the smiles, the fear in Seoul is that China will frustrate Park’s vision of a unified Korean nation by sending its army south and either leaving behind a puppet regime or even colonizing North Korea.  [The Daily Beast]

You can read the rest at the link.

It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out.  The Chinese have so much invested in these South China Sea islands I just don’t see them backing down even if the UN court rules against them.  The domestic political blowback would be too much with accusations of the Chinese government backing down to foreigners.  The UN court though could legitimize the freedom of navigation patrols which are currently being executed by the US Navy.  The ruling is supposed to be released sometime in 2016:

The Hague (AFP) – An international tribunal ruled Thursday it had the power to hear a case brought by the Philippines over disputed islands in the South China Sea, in a move likely to trigger fury in Beijing.

Manila has insisted the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which the Philippines and China have both ratified, should be used to resolve the bitter territorial row over isolated reefs and islets, which has triggered growing international alarm.

But China has refused to participate in the proceedings, arguing the Permanent Court of Arbitration — which is more than a century old and based in The Hague — had no jurisdiction over the case.

“Reviewing the claims submitted by the Philippines, the tribunal has rejected the argument” by China that the “dispute is actually about sovereignty over the islands in the South China Sea and therefore beyond the tribunal’s jurisdiction,” the court said in a statement.

Instead, the court ruled the case reflects “disputes between the two states concerning the interpretation or application of the Convention” — something which falls within its remit.

China insists it has sovereign rights to nearly all of the South China Sea, a strategic waterway through which about a third of all the world’s traded oil passes.

The disputed waters — claimed in part by Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Brunei — have also become the stage for a tussle for regional dominance between Beijing and Washington, the world’s two largest economic and military powers.

Following a stand-off between Chinese ships and the weak Filipino Navy in 2012, China took control of a rich fishing ground called Scarborough Shoal that is within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.  [Associated Press]

You can read the rest at the link.

Chinese Internet posters are supposedly going bonkers over the fact that a US Navy ship conducted a freedom of navigation patrol through the South China Sea which the Chinese government ridiculously claims is part of China:

On Oct. 27, the high-stakes maritime game of chicken that has been playing out in the South China Sea came to a head. In a long-discussed freedom of navigation patrol, the United States sailed the USS Lassen, a guided missile destroyer, within 12 miles of artificial islands that China has built amid territorial disputes in the South China Sea. China tracked and warned the U.S. vessel; the operation concluded without incident and prompted swift condemnation from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. But after weeks of tough government rhetoric claiming that China would not stand for what it views as a violation of its territorial sovereignty, Chinese social media voices are now mocking what many perceive as a spineless official response.  [Foreign Policy]

Despite all the online venom to attack the US ship one Chinese Internet user left a popular post which accurately reflects what I think is going on:

China’s shrill online nationalists may dominate the web in the aftermath of a flashpoint, but while common, such online outrage has not led to government action in the past. And some netizens harbor more nuanced perspectives. One particularly discerning Weibo user, who identified himself as a 22-year-old native of China’s northeastern Shandong province, also seemed to take the long view of the South China Sea, noting the behind-the-scenes machinations that make the region so complex. “This seems like a game,” wrote the user in a popular comment. “Not only have both countries maintained their reputations, neither country has suffered any losses.” Another observed somewhat sardonically that the situation, all told, was “well managed.” The user noted that China had “gotten rid of the U.S. ship, maintained its sovereignty, and hasn’t worsened the situation. Afterwards, it can be used as an excuse for militarization in the South China Sea.”

Like I have said before the US’s and China’s interests in the South China Sea do no necessarily come into conflict.  From the US perspective we want freedom of navigation through the SCS.  From the Chinese perspective they want strategic space to defend the sea lanes leading to the southeastern China and to a lesser extent the fishing and mineral rights.  As long as each side respects the others interests in the SCS there is no reason for conflict unless the Chinese government is stupid enough to listen to hateful commenters on the Internet.

Despite ups and downs, the China-US relationship has largely been improving: http://t.co/1gj2WpZmot pic.twitter.com/61AMQzeJY9

— China US Focus (@ChinaUSFocus) October 2, 2015

https://twitter.com/freekorea_us/status/649411361383038976

Remember China's Announced 300,000 Troop Cut? Not Everyone's Happy About It http://t.co/5CVcb5cr4u pic.twitter.com/sEXGrYIaRG

— The Diplomat (@Diplomat_APAC) September 28, 2015

Members of the Washington-based North Korea Freedom Coalition, including its head Suzanne Scholte (2nd from R), rally in front of the Chinese Embassy in Washington on Sept. 24, 2015, to urge China not to deport North Korean defectors. (Yonhap)

These are just words on the part of the Chinese leader which are important, but I am more interested to see what action they would take in response to the next North Korean provocation:

In an apparent warning to North Korea, Chinese President Xi Jinping said Friday he opposes any action that violates U.N. Security Council resolutions as he and President Barack Obama reaffirmed their commitment to a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.

Xi made the remark during a joint press conference after summit talks with Obama at the White House as concerns have grown that North Korea could launch a long-range rocket or conduct a nuclear test next month in violation of U.N. resolutions.

“We reaffirm our commitment to realize the complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in a peaceful way and we oppose any action that might cause tension in the Korean peninsula or violate U.N. Security Council resolutions,” Xi said.

Xi did not mention North Korea by name, but it was pretty clear that he was referring to Pyongyang.

It is highly unusual for a Chinese leader to publicly issue such a warning, given that Beijing has been reluctant to criticize North Korea and has usually urged all sides to exercise calm and restraint when it comes to tensions on the Korean Peninsula.”

Xi also said that a 2005 agreement on North Korea’s denuclearizations and U.N. resolutions should be “implemented in full and all relevant parties should work together to firmly advance the denuclearization process of the Korean peninsula and maintain peace and stability so as to achieve enduring peace and stability in Northeast Asia.”  [Yonhap]

You can read the rest at the link.