Before any blockade or invasion of Taiwan would happen, the CNAS think tanks thinks the Chinese would first seize the Pratas Islands. It makes sense because the Chinese could use the international response to this as a trial balloon for them to see if they could get away with a follow on blockade of Taiwan:
The United States has “few credible options” to respond if China were to seize a set of islands administered by Taiwan in the South China Sea, underscoring the need for Washington and Taipei to build deterrence “against limited Chinese aggression,” according to the results of a war game conducted recently by foreign policy experts in Washington and the Asia-Pacific region.
The scenario was examined by the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank, and detailed in a report published Tuesday. It supposes that Chinese forces invade the Pratas islands, capturing the 500 Taiwanese troops who are based there and establishing a military outpost.
It’s a theoretical dilemma for the Pentagon that “many China-watchers view as increasingly plausible” – and one that “reinforces the need for regular planning exercises between Taiwanese and U.S. personnel,” the report says.
The report comes at a moment of heightened tension between Washington and Beijing, with the United States opposing China’s military expansion in the region and China calling on the Pentagon to cut ties with Taiwan. The standoff has spotlighted the challenge U.S. commanders would face in responding to an incursion of the islands without provoking a full-blown war.
Stars & Stripes
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