Category: China

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine opinions from experts in Germany I find to be very suspect:

Angela Kane, vice president of the International Institute for Peace (IIP) in Vienna and former U.N. under-secretary-general for management and high representative for disarmament, presented a view about the evolving geopolitical landscape in East Asia that is very different from others. 

Refuting the popular belief that a new Cold War-like confrontation between two sides ― South Korea, the United States and Japan on one side and China, Russia and North Korea on the other ― has been in the making after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, Kane claims China won’t be tempted to make an enemy of the United States or any other countries. 

Like other countries, she said, China is driven by trade interests and will refrain from doing anything that may hurt its economic gains in foreign markets. 

The German expert visited Korea to join the 2022 DMZ Forum held last Friday in Goyang, Gyeonggi Province. Moon Chung-in, chairman of Sejong Institute think tank, moderated the session in which Kane participated. 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but the economic ties that Russia had with Germany and the rest of Europe did not stop it from invading Ukraine. Likewise economic ties are not going to stop China from invading Taiwan once they have the ability to military do so and feel the diplomatic and economic consequences of an invasion can be effectively endured.

Here is the latest on the THAAD issue between China and South Korea:

China’s top legislator made an unprecedented visit to Seoul last week, where they confirmed their differences on South Korea’s deployment of the US-made missile defense system that Beijing opposes.

Li Zhanshu, Beijing’s third-highest-ranking official and chief of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, made an unprecedented two-day trip to Seoul from Thursday, as South Korea has embarked on work to normalize operations of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system.

Paying a courtesy visit to South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and also meeting with top officials including his Korean counterpart Kim Jin-pyo, the National Assembly speaker, Li discussed a range of topics, including the operation of THAAD.

When Li visited on Friday, Yoon told Li that South Korea and China must “closely communicate” so that THAAD does not become a “hurdle” to bilateral relations.

Li also agreed on the need for improvement in communication to address the “sensitive” issue, implicitly referring to the THAAD issue. (…….)

Over Li’s visit to Seoul and his meeting with Yoon, China’s state-operated English news outlet Global Times cited analysts to report that Seoul appears to have “received and better understood Beijing’s position on some sensitive issues, and that following the US is not completely in South Korea’s national interests.”

In the meeting with Li, Yoon also delivered his invitation for Chinese President Xi Jinping to Seoul, saying that Xi’s visit would be an “important sign” that opens the door to the next 30 years of their bilateral relationship.

South Korea and China celebrate the 30th anniversary of the establishment of their diplomatic relations this year.

With the ongoing THAAD issue, however, it is highly unlikely for Xi to visit Korea anytime soon, unless there is a clear benefit for China to gain, Kang Jun-young, a Chinese studies professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, told The Korea Herald.

Korea Herald

You can read more at the link, but the Chinese hypocrisy over THAAD continues to be so obvious. They continue to be against the THAAD system in the ROK because they claim it is against Chinese security interests while completely ignoring ROK security interests.  If it wasn’t for the Chinese backing of their client state North Korea that has allowed them to pursue missiles and nuclear weapons to threaten the ROK, the deployment of THAAD to South Korea would not be necessary in the first place.

It seems to me that President Biden is making it pretty clear that the U.S. will defend Taiwan if it is attacked by China:

President Joe Biden on Sunday for the second time this year said U.S. troops would help defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, further casting doubt on the United States’ policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding the island democracy.

Biden in an interview broadcast on CBS’ “60 Minutes” said the U.S. remains committed to the “One China” policy that acknowledges Beijing’s claim over Taiwan but considers the island’s status unresolved.

However, in the case of an “unprecedented attack,” U.S. troops would intervene, the president said.

An unnamed White House spokesman later said official U.S. policy toward China and Taiwan has not changed, CNBC reported Monday.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.

The President of the think tank, the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, Dr. Choi Kang has an op-ed in the Chosun Ilbo advocating for using the Three No’s policy to pressure China to reign in North Korea’s nuclear testing:

If necessary, we could officially declare that South Korea is no longer bound by the ‘THAAD Three No’s’ given North Korea’s repeated nuclear and missile threats.  If North Korea conducts another nuclear or missile test in the future, it could constitute a just cause for renouncing the ‘THAAD Three No’s.’  Given China has failed to prevent North Korea from advancing its nuclear capabilities, its rationale for THAAD opposition is weakened.

Recently, President Xi Jinping said that “those who play with fire will eventually get burned.” Instead of trying to impose the ‘THAAD Three No’s’ on South Korea, China should sternly warn North Korea, which has played with fire for the past 16 years since its first nuclear test in 2006.

Asan Institute

You can read more at the link.

People definitely need to get out of their minds that a war with China in defense of Taiwan will be anything like the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Thousands could die in a single strike on a U.S. aircraft carrier or other ships and that is what this war game is demonstrating:

The game umpires include two doctoral students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a former Marine captain and Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist with MIT’s Center for International Studies and author of five books and numerous articles on China’s military power. Overseeing the project is Mark Cancian, a CSIS senior advisor and retired Marine colonel.

Some variants had Japan involved from the start. The Philippines allowed U.S. basing in some iterations, but not others. Game moderators permitted U.S. strikes on mainland China in some, but not others.

Throughout the week the game always reaches a stopping point where the players know the likely outcome and, nearly always within the roughly three-week timeframe of simulated combat, it reaches a stalemate on Taiwan between U.S. and Chinese ground forces. (……)

On the first U.S. turn, the players lost an entire aircraft carrier, though it was on the board from the “baseline” opening and not that team’s choice to have it where it was located. In a version earlier in the week, the United States lost 700 aircraft over the three-week battle.

None of these provided a pretty outcome, but in each of the versions, the United States prevailed, Cancian said.

Army Times

You can read more at the link, but these war games are showing the U.S. can win in the near term such conflict at great cost, however 10 years from now would that still be the case?

The Chinese continue to spew their anti-THAAD propaganda for their useful idiots to continue to champion; fortunately the ROK government continues to dismiss it:

South Korea’s defense minister said, Thursday, a U.S. anti-missile shield, currently deployed on the Korean Peninsula, cannot operate to Washington’s advantage, rejecting China’s claim that the system’s radar can spy on its military maneuvers and undermine its security interests.

In addition, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup vowed to speed up efforts to transform the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) base in South Korea into a permanent structure. 

Since the establishment of the base in 2017 at a local golf course, hundreds of U.S. and South Korean service members stationed there have been using shipping containers and an old golf clubhouse, raising concerns over their poor living conditions. 

The deployment of the THAAD battery has emerged as a hot-button issue between Seoul and Beijing, as evidenced by their foreign ministerial meeting, Tuesday, where it topped the agenda. 

“The THAAD issue has to do with our security and sovereignty and China’s assertion is not acceptable,” Lee said during a press conference at the Ministry of National Defense in Seoul. 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but the Chinese hypocrisy over THAAD continues to be so obvious. They continue to be against the THAAD system in the ROK because they claim it is against Chinese security interests while completely ignoring ROK security interests.  If it wasn’t for the Chinese backing of their client state North Korea that has allowed them to pursue missiles and nuclear weapons to threaten the ROK, the deployment of THAAD to South Korea would not be necessary in the first place.