Category: China

Here are what Korea experts are saying about the China spy balloon controversy:

Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said an intensifying U.S.-Sino rivalry is not favorable to the security situation on the peninsula, adding, “We would see China’s role regarding North Korea’s nuclear issue diminishing following the balloon saga.”

Cho said it is noteworthy that South Korea and the U.S. staged combined air drills involving strategic bombers and stealth fighters over the West Sea, which is right under China’s nose. 

“South Korea and the U.S. conducted combined air drills, involving B-1B strategic bombers, and F-22, F-35A and F-35B stealth jets, over the West Sea on Feb. 1. Two days later, another drill with the stealth fighters occurred, which is unprecedented,” he said.

“Given that the U.S. first detected the balloon on Jan. 28, the drills served as a U.S. warning to China in response to the spy balloon.”

Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, said China has always been part of the North Korean problem rather than part of the solution. 

“Beijing would occasionally allow incremental stronger U.N. resolutions in response to egregious North Korean provocations only to subsequently turn a blind eye to violations of those resolutions by Chinese entities,” he said.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but Bruce Klingner is right, China has no intentions of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. They are more than happy to pretend to be trying to solve the issue from time to time without actually doing anything.

I think North Korea knows that China will more publicly have its back at the UN making it more likely they will go ahead with more provocative ICBM and nuclear tests in the future.

General Minihan does offer a plausible scenario on why 2025 would be a good time for China to attack Taiwan:

China could be at war with the United States two years from now, a top Air Force general predicted in a bombastic and unusual memo to troops under his command, asserting a significantly shorter timeline before potential conflict than any other senior U.S. defense official to date.

Gen. Michael A. Minihan, who as head of Air Mobility Command oversees the service’s fleet of transport and refueling aircraft, warned personnel to speed their preparations for a potential conflict, citing Chinese President Xi Jinping’s aspirations and the possibility that Americans will not be paying attention until it is too late.

“I hope I am wrong,” Minihan wrote. “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.

Not a good look for the Chinese government, but obviously they have long ago quit caring what the ROK thinks of them. They just look at the ROK as a country they can bully which they are attempting to do so again:

China announced the suspension Tuesday of its short-term visa service for South Koreans in retaliation against Seoul’s regulations on entries from the neighbor with increasing COVID-19 infections.

The Chinese Embassy in Seoul made public the decision in a post on its WeChat account, citing an “instruction” from Beijing for its embassy and consulates to stop issuing visas, including visits for trade, tourism and medical care purposes.

China plans to “adjust” the measure in accordance with the situation in which South Korea cancels its “discriminatory entry restrictions against China,” the embassy said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but fortunately there is probably few South Koreans that want to travel to China at this time.