Author: GIKorea

Retired Admiral James Stavridis has an opinion piece published in Bloomberg on how he believes North Korea’s denuclearization should be pursued:

While the ultimate shape of what might be termed “denuclearization lite” remains unclear, one can envision the general outline. For starters, the U.S. would likely demand a full, verifiable accounting of North Korea’s active nuclear and missile programs, with specific geographic positions identified. The U.S. could also push for a reduction in the total stockpile to a number that international inspectors could keep under permanent observation, say 50 warheads of a specified level of kilotons each. The warheads would be held in a small number of locations, three or so, each with a technical oversight system (cameras, electronic monitors) to alert inspectors if the facilities were breached. There could be a similar plan for the launcher systems, but they would be based different parts of the country than the warheads. All of this would be verified by international teams, which would have a mandate to inspect the facilities at any time.

In exchange, the North would receive sanctions relief and a large amount of development aid, although perhaps not of the kind Trump famously proposed for North Korea’s beaches in his first meeting with Kim: “Boy, look at that view. Wouldn’t that make a great condo?”

Bloomberg

You can read more at the link, but the international community could not get proper inspections of North Korean food aid, what makes anyone think the Kim regime will allow unannounced inspections of their nuclear weapons?

We have seen this movie before. It appears that North Korea is heading towards another deal where some sanctions are dropped in return for mostly future promises from the Kim regime to denuclearize. They will behave for a while and then once their cash reserves are restocked they will break the deal at a time of their choosing and blame the U.S. for its breakdown. Another provocation cycle will begin with more calls for talks and eventually another deal will be reached.

All the journalists and think tank types can then recycle all their old articles and opinion pieces. The only wild card with this issue is President Trump. Is he willing to watch this same old movie play out?

Anyone want to place a bet that this cable car operator was busy looking at his phone?:

The police investigating a cable car accident that took place at N Seoul Tower on Friday will book an employee who was in charge of the operations control at the time.

The Namdaemun Police Station said the individual will be taken into custody on charges of professional negligence resulting in injury. 

In earlier police questioning, the employee is known to have said that he was late in putting the brakes on the cable car because he hadn’t been paying attention.

At around 7:15 p.m. Friday, the cable car carrying 20 passengers failed to slow down while entering the platform and crashed into the safety fence.

Seven passengers including two foreign tourists suffered minor injuries and were taken to a nearby hospital.

Cable car rides at the N Seoul Tower have since been suspended for mechanical inspections.

KBS World Radio via a reader tip

A cut of 118,000 servicemembers is going to be quite a reduction in the size of the ROK military by 2022:

Concerns are being raised over possible regional economic crises in cities near the inter-Korean border as they are seeing a considerable population outflow with military units in the region having been or set to be withdrawn or unified in the near future. This is in line with the country’s overall Defense Reform 2.0 troop drawdown plan.

Under the five-year plan announced by President Moon Jae-in last July, the military is seeking to be smaller but “smarter” to counter the demographic cliff the country is facing. The combined number of troops in the ROK Armed Forces ― the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marines ― is currently 618,000 but the government is planning to cut this by 118,000 by 2022. 

Out of the eight corps currently being operated by the Republic of Korea Army, two ― VI Corps in Pocheon, Gyeonggi Province and VII Corps in Yangyang, Gangwon Province ― will be disbanded, while the number of Army divisions will also see a reduction from 39 to 33, according to military sources. 

Korea Times

You can read the rest at the link, but the governments of the cities near the DMZ are concerned about the loss of population from the troop cuts and how it will effect regional economies. The governments are planning to turn towards DMZ eco-tourism to fill the economic gap the cuts in troops is going to cause.

Please leave anything you want to discuss in the comments section.

NK thoroughly deterred the mighty US with conventional weapons alone throughout the 1960s-2000s, before it went nuclear in 2006. Killed dozens of US servicemen and never paid any price. The notion NK is paranoid & developed nukes for self-defense only is creepy self-consolation. https://t.co/ia3Fyi7Tim

— Sung-Yoon Lee (@SungYoonLee1) July 13, 2019

South Korea and Japan cannot even get on the same page in regards to what happened during a working level meeting to resolve their trade dispute:

A row between Japan and South Korea escalated on Saturday, with contested accounts of a frosty meeting the day before that had failed to make progress on a dispute that could threaten global supplies of microchips and smartphone displays.

Tokyo lodged a protest against Seoul, saying it had broken an agreement on what the two sides would disclose from the Friday discussions on Japan’s curbs of exports to Korea of some materials used to make high-tech equipment, said Japanese trade ministry official Jun Iwamatsu.

Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) also disputed a Korean official’s statement that Seoul had asked Japan on Friday to withdraw the restrictions.

But a Korean trade ministry official shot back that Seoul had “clearly demanded Japan withdraw its trade restrictions at yesterday’s meeting, and there should be no disagreement over that matter with Japan.”

He told Reuters the two sides had discussed what they would disclose but that there was no agreement. (……..)

In response, Iwamatsu, director of METI’s trade control policy division, told a hastily arranged news conference: “We’ve checked the record of the meeting … We found no clear comment asking for the withdrawal.”

Iwamatsu said the two sides had agreed on what they would disclose from the talks but that the Korean official went beyond the agreement. “We believe this is something that affects our relationship of trust,” he said.

Reuters

You can read more at the link, but the dispute about what was disputed is important because Japan wants the working level meeting to be characterized as one where they gave explanation to South Korea for the trade restrictions, not a consultation for problem solving like the ROK has declared it. By declaring it a consultation it expedites the ROK’s efforts to refer this issue to the World Trade Organization while Japan is trying to drag it out.

Korea Times columnist Oh Young-jin believes that President Moon cannot back down from Japanese trade retaliation because he would lose his left wing base:

President Moon Jae-in has shown no sign that a compromise is an option in Japan’s embargo on key items that can halt Korea’s semiconductor making, the nation’s bread-and-butter industry.

Moon faces growing pressure from Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest chip maker for which Japanese technology is pivotal for production, and other industrialists who fear a greater impact if Tokyo increases sanctions. 

Several opinion leaders fault Moon for what they argue is his ham-fisted handling of the aftermath of the Supreme Court ruling that ordered Japanese firms to pay compensation to Koreans who were mobilized for materiel production during the Second World War. 

Moon could succumb to these pressures but only at the risk of turning his regime into a political zombie. And history shows the more he stands pat, the greater the chance the nation rallies around him. 

The issues with Japan ― compensation for forced laborers and comfort women, or sex slaves, under Japan’s imperial army ― are integral to the Moon regime’s foundation ― the liquidation of past ills.  (…….)

Moon learned a lesson the hard way when he worked for his mentor and friend, the late President Roh Moo-hyun. Roh alienated his support base by pushing for the free trade agreement with the U.S., long considered part of the conservative agenda. 

Korea Times

Notice the commonality here with South Korean leftists, working out deals with allies, the U.S. and Japan is bad, but a deal with North Korea, a regime committed to the ROK’s destruction, is a good thing.

Here is my favorite part of Mr. Oh’s article how he can’t explain why South Korea is not going after China the same way they are going after China:

I am often asked by foreigners why Korea is easily provoked by Japan while being more tolerant of China. For instance, China has retaliated against Korea for allowing the U.S. to station its anti-missile Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles on its soil.

Beijing stopped sending tourists to Korea and put pressure on Korean firms in China, having some pack up and leave for home. But there has been little public show of indignation. The sentiment is more of a concern than resentment shown on the fly to Japan for a slight provocation. 

I would say it is related to the unhappy memories of Japan’s occupation at the turn of the 20th century. But then, the Chinese supported North Korea in the 1950-53 Korean War that killed or maimed millions of Koreans. And it also has been a key supporter keeping the North afloat since, standing in the way of unification. 

Another possible explanation is that Korea had long served as a midpoint transmitting advanced culture from China to Japan, an experience that induced its people to look down on Japan. Japan used to pay tribute to Korea. Maybe that piece of history is affecting Koreans’ collective consciousness. 

As I have long said on this site, China is responsible for more death and destruction on the Korean peninsula than Imperial Japan ever caused by their colonial occupation of the peninsula. However, China does not get the same treatment Japan gets because they will strongly respond.

Japan on the other hand has been an easy punching bag for ROK politicians for decades because they would not strongly respond. That has clearly changed now as President Moon has found out.

Here is another claim that has come out of the allegation that USFK tried to add Japan as part of the United Nations Command (UNC); they also wanted Germany to join as well:

 Early this year, the UNC finalized a legal review to lowering the bar for which countries can serve as sending states, according to sources, which could include nations like Japan or Germany.

It was also revealed by South Korea’s Defense Ministry on Thursday that the United States tried to have Germany dispatch military officers to the UNC, but the plan fizzled out due to opposition from Seoul. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

USFK for their part has denied the allegation they tried to have Japan become part of the UNC.