A former nuclear envoy from past six party talks believes things are different now and Kim Jong-un really does mean to denuclearize:
Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy for the six-party talks with North Korea, speaks to The Korea Times during an interview at The Shilla in Seoul on June 29. / Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk
DeTrani, currently a professor at Missouri State University’s Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies in Fairfax, Virginia, believes that this time will be totally different from the past in three aspects.
3 reasons to be optimistic
The first thing that he thinks we should pay attention to is that the ongoing movement has been spearheaded by the top two leaders ― U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, not negotiators.
“The difference is that the two leaders are talking about these critical issues and coming up with the path to resolve it. It’s their words and commitment. That changed the equation,” he said in an interview with The Korea Times at The Shilla hotel in Seoul on June 28.
“In the past we were working through negotiators and looking for approval of leadership. It has been reversed productively. So it’s a different equation,” he added. “Literally, Kim, President Trump, Moon and Xi Jinping all are saying the same thing. We have never had this before.”
The second reason he cited for his optimism is that the North’s economy is in a dire situation.
According to DeTrani’s assessment, without sanctions relief, Kim won’t be able to push for economic developments he has promised to his people so he has made a strategic decision to denuclearize the isolated country.
“The key here is economic development. Kim has said that he had to do more for the people and we see elements of economic reform going on now. This is the path seemingly he wants to take,” he said.
“If he has crushing sanctions and intimidating joint military exercises, (it means) total isolation. So I think he has made strategic decision to change that equation.”
The third reason behind his optimism is his belief that Kim, who studied in Switzerland, is a different person from his father or grandfather.
“Recently, North Korea had worked with UNICEF. That’s significant. I think he is a different leader and he wants to do more for the people,” he said. [Korea Times]
North Korea’s top leader Kim Jong-un (2nd from R) talks with workers during his visit to the Sinuiju Chemical Fibre Mill in the town bordering China in this clip from the North’s Central TV on July 2, 2018. The country’s media outlets said Kim chastised workers during his visits to plants in the city for not working hard enough. In the case of the mill, Kim “seriously reproved officials for failing to take pains to finish as early as possible the upgrading of the paper manufacturing process,” the report said in English. (Yonhap)
Here is the latest from the State Department on North Korean denuclearization efforts:
The U.S. State Department on Tuesday declined to specify a deadline for North Korea’s denuclearization ahead of negotiations to be led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo later this week.
Pompeo is slated to travel to Pyongyang Thursday to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and flesh out a denuclearization agreement signed by Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump at their historic summit last month.
U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton said Sunday that he expects Pompeo to discuss with the North Koreans a plan to dismantle the nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs in a year.
“I know some individuals have given timelines. We’re not going to provide a timeline for that,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said at a regular press briefing.
“The secretary’s looking forward to having these meetings. A lot of work is left to be done, certainly. We go into this eyes wide open, with a very clear view of these conversations,” she added. [Korea Times]
I read this article and it left me wondering why is the Korean government subsidizing Chinese electric buses and not domestically made ones?:
BYD eBus-12 / Courtesy of Ezwelfare
Concerns have grown over electric buses made in China, which are set to hit the Korean roads within a few months, taking advantage of the handsome subsidy given by the Korean government.
Industry officials point out the government policy may allow Chinese companies to take the lead in the Korean electric vehicle and battery markets, given that the buses are equipped with batteries made in China, the country which has remained reluctant to subsidize batteries produced by Korean companies.
According to industry officials, Wednesday, the Ministry of Environment decided last month to subsidize the eBus-12 made by BYD, China’s largest electric vehicle maker.
The 11-meter-long low-floor bus is powered by a 324-kilowatt-hour lithium-ion battery pack also made by BYD.
The subsidized bus is attracting clients with a more competitive price.
Because the environment ministry, the land ministry and local governments are giving subsidies to the bus maker, the subsidized bus costs 200 million won ($179,000) less than it would without the subsidies. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but the Chinese government is not subsidizing Korean made buses in China. So is the ROK government subsidizing these buses as part of some larger deal perhaps to get China to withdraw some of is economic sanctions caused by the phony THAAD controversy?
Even on the American Independence Day there are those in the American left that can’t spend at least one day without trashing the country:
This July 4, let’s not mince words: American independence in 1776 was a monumental mistake. We should be mourning the fact that we left the United Kingdom, not cheering it.
Of course, evaluating the wisdom of the American Revolution means dealing with counterfactuals. As any historian would tell you, this is a messy business. We obviously can’t be entirely sure how America would have fared if it had stayed in the British Empire longer, perhaps gaining independence a century or so later, along with Canada.
But I’m reasonably confident a world in which the revolution never happened would be better than the one we live in now, for three main reasons: Slavery would’ve been abolished earlier, American Indians would’ve faced rampant persecution but not the outright ethnic cleansing Andrew Jackson and other American leaders perpetrated, and America would have a parliamentary system of government that makes policymaking easier and lessens the risk of democratic collapse. [Vox]
You can read the rest at the link, but be warned the article makes some major assumptions to support its thesis. For example if the British did try to end slavery sooner in the American colonies does anyone think the South would not have revolted?
Is max pressure dead? Well, there's moderate pressure. If "max pressure leading to engagement" was 2017, then 2018 might be "engagement supported by moderate pressure." Need to be plugged in to know re movement of military hardware? No, it's all pub infohttps://t.co/8M5UAKRojg
Maybe US Defense Secretary Mattis’ recent trip to South Korea was to drop off a copy of the Army’s SHARP manual: 😉
Defense Minister Song Yong-moo (2nd from R) speaks during a meeting of top ministry and military officials at the ministry’s building in Seoul on July 4, 2018, in this photo provided by his office. (Yonhap)
Defense Minister Song Young-moo pledged Wednesday to eradicate the military’s political interference and sexual violence following a series of unsavory incidents that have sapped public confidence and troop morale.
Operatives from the cyber warfare command and the Defense Security Command (DSC) have been accused of having posted online comments in favor of former conservative governments in breach of their duty to maintain political neutrality.
This week, the military also came under fire after a senior Navy officer was put under emergency arrest for allegedly attempting to sexually assault his female subordinate while under the influence of alcohol.
“Recently, things that should never have happened in the military have occurred. These incidents have resulted in a tremendous loss of citizens’ confidence in the military,” the minister said in his opening remarks at an emergency meeting of about 40 top ministry and military officials on discipline.
“I, as the minister, will take measures to ensure that the illegal political interference by the DSC and cyber command will be the last in the history of our armed services. Also, through the efforts, I will try to make organizational, institutional and legal improvements,” he added.
The meeting that Song called to check on “lax discipline” comes amid concerns that the emerging mood for peace with North Korea and the recent suspension of a major South Korea-U.S. military exercise could weaken the allies’ military readiness.
At the meeting, participants focused on the causes of sexual violence and deadly accidents in the military, and measures to prevent them. [Yonhap]
Kim Jong-un should have invited Dennis Rodman to attend this:
South and North Korean men’s and women’s basket ball teams will play goodwill matches today and Thursday in Pyongyang, possibly with the North’s leader Kim Jong-un attending.
The “Unification Basketball Competition” is the fourth of its kind and is being held for the first time in 15 years since the last games were played in 2003. The Koreas agreed to schedule the event at a meeting on sports cooperation last month.
A 101 member delegation departed for Pyongyang Tuesday, led by Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon. The delegation includes 50 basketball players, government officials, reporters and a broadcasting team.
“The PyeongChang Winter Olympics became the foundation of peace on the Korean Peninsula, so I hope that the Pyongyang unification basketball competition serves as an occasion to further develop peace on the peninsula,” Cho told reporters before departure.
The delegation headed to Pyongyang Sunan International Airport from Seoul Airport in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, via an air force transport aircraft, given international sanctions on North Korea.
This is the first time for the unification minister to visit Pyongyang in 11 years. His last visit was in 2007 as a presidential secretary. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but I wonder what the cost of the “hotel bills” are that South Korea will have to pay to North Korea to play these games?
