Why Immediate Withdrawal of the US Military Will Not Happen Anytime Soon
Due to the on going US beef protests, the long chain of anti-US protests, as well as the underlying anti-Americanism prevalent in Korean society, many people have advocated for the immediate withdrawal of USFK.
The immediate withdrawal of USFK is something easier said then done. Listed below is my list of reasons why I believe an immediate pull out of USFK is not practical and thus will not happen anytime soon.
Take note that my list is no particular order of importance. Also this is my own personal opinion so do not take it as any indication of what the USFK command thinks on this issue. Take it for what it is worth and feel free to debate it in the comments section.
Korean Economic Impact – First of all you have all the jobs that Korean workers hold on USFK bases which would be lost if USFK pulled out. You also have all the businesses outside the camps that are another example of ways money is made from USFK. Blackmarketing, illegal gambling, golf course scams, gate scams, housing scams, shady contracts, etc. are examples of ways that Koreans are making millions off the USFK presence in Korea. So much money would be lost that Korean politicians would feel enormous pressure to keep USFK in Korea.
Impact on Foreign Investment – With Korea already hurting for foreign investment the loss of USFK would create another major shock to Korean attempts to draw international investors. Think about if you were going to invest your money in Korea, wouldn’t you feel better if your investment was insured by the US military presence in the country?
Korean Defense Spending – Currently the Korean government gets state of the art military capabilities courtesy of the USFK presence in their country for the small USFK upkeep fee that they pay every year that mostly goes to pay the salaries of Korean workers anyway. The Korean government has been able to put off paying the full amount to pay for their own defense for decades and are eager to keep things that way. This allows the ROKs to take advantage of superior US technology such as command & control, intelligence, and missile defense systems that would normally be too cost prohibitive for them to pursue.
Loss of Korean Political Influence in Washington – For a country considered a middle power around the world Korea’s has an inflated importance within Washington for a nation of its size and stature should have because of the US-ROK alliance. Korea has one of the few four star commands in the US military with the USFK commander having direct access to senior policy makers in the United States. Losing USFK would also mean a huge loss in political influence in Washington which the Korean government does not want.
Moderating American Reactions to North Korea – The Korean government knows that as long as American troops are exposed to an attack by North Korea that this moderates a US response to a North Korean provocation. The 2ID and even soldiers on Yongsan are easy targets for a North Korean response and this tends to moderate American reactions to North Korean brinkmanship. This was one of the main reasons why the ROK government has reservations about the USFK transformation plan. By consolidating troops on Camp Humphreys which is outside the North Korean artillery range, an American military response to North Korean brinkmanship is a greater possibility.
Lack of Unit Space in the US – Related to logistics is the fact that 27,500 soldiers that are currently in USFK plus their families would need a post back in the US that has room for them to redeploy to. When 2BCT redeployed to Iraq I knew guys that were living in rented college dorm rooms because Ft. Carson didn’t physically have room for them yet. The post hadn’t anticipated the soldiers being posted at the facility in order to build enough barracks for them. In the US you have units coming back from overseas that are living in squalor, ghetto like conditions because they are a waiting for units to deploy overseas in order to take their barracks space. This is caused by the growth of the military, base closings, as well as the prior force cut backs in Korea and the major force cut backs in Germany.
Camp Closeout Procedures – If USFK were to pull out all the camps currently occupied, all the camps would need to be cleaned and inspected before redeployment. Having personally been involved in the closeouts of smaller camps in Uijongbu I can tell you this process took about 4-6 months for smaller camps to get done. I can only imagine how long it will take to get a huge installation like Yongsan inspected and handed over.
Political Apathy in Washington – The fact of the matter is that very few politicians back in the US know much of anything about Korea. Much of their perceptions of Korea is based off the US-ROK alliance that was forged in blood during the Korean War. There have been few politicians in Washington that “get it” in regards to Korean affairs and Congressmen Henry Hyde was one of them before he past away.
Despite all the other issues with Donald Rumsfeld, in regards to Korean affairs he was another guy that understood Korea very well. When the Korean government balked at the relocation plan Rumsfeld pulled 2nd Brigade, 2ID from Korea with little forewarning to let the Korean government know he was serious about the transformation. The removal of 2nd Brigade is what began the USFK transformation. However, once Rumsfeld resigned from office the Korean government a week later reneged on the deal and the delay games preventing the USFK transformation began.
Power of the Status Quo – For anyone to tackle all the issues I have listed above it would take extraordinary dedication and effort to do so that would need to be maintained over a number of years until the pull out of forces from Korea is complete. For many political leaders, putting forth the multi-year effort necessary to withdraw USFK is simply too much work with little political payoff, so why bother? In regards to USFK you have a military unit comprised mostly of people there for one year and then going home. They to have little incentive to undertake a long term project in regards to the withdrawal of USFK.
The ones who have spent a long time in USFK and work to change things are often offset by those who have been in Korea a long time themselves and actually benefit from keeping the status quo the way it is. It is not impossible, but it is difficult to create change in USFK. There are a few other smaller issues I can think of in regards to pulling USFK out of Korea but these are the main ones that would need to be addressed that clearly show that withdrawing USFK would require a multi-year long term effort. Since such a thing isn’t going to happen anytime soon that is why I think the US government should continue to strongly push for the USFK consolidation on Camp Humphreys. The consolidation is an opportunity for USFK to cut troop numbers along with reducing the force footprint in the nation along with being in a better strategic position in regards to North Korea.
The ROK government is going to continue to do everything possible to delay the relocation. President Bush announced in April a delay in troop cuts that were anticipated as part of the Camp Humphreys relocation and he should use that as a bargaining chip in regards to the Camp Humphrey relocation. In due time those troop cuts should be restarted anyway and get the USFK force strength down to 25,000 servicemembers as planned.
Additionally I believe USFK should move units piece meal to Camp Humphreys. USFK should focus on building one unit area at a time on the expanded Camp Humphreys and fill it with soldiers currently stationed on Yongsan. Build another unit area and fill it with more soldiers from Yongsan. Physically moving people from the most visible US military presence in Korea will send a signal to Korea at large that the US is serious about the move.
If the Korean government continues to play delay games (ie- the cost sharing and camp pollution issues) then serious consideration should given in regards to removing 2ID completely from the peninsula. This would be a shock to Korean society even greater then when 2nd brigade was withdrawn that should be enough to get the Korean government moving on the relocation of US forces to Camp Humphreys.
