It will be interesting to see if China in the coming weeks or months tries to conduct military drills around Taiwan to pressure their new President:
The outcome of the presidential election in Taiwan is expected to pose significant diplomatic challenges for Korea, particularly in navigating relations with China and neighboring countries. Tensions in Asia could escalate in response to any sensitive rhetoric or actions, adding complexity to Korea’s diplomatic landscape.
In Saturday’s presidential election, Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, known for his U.S.-friendly stance, secured victory by garnering 40.05 percent of the total ballots. He outpaced Hou Yu-ih from the China-friendly opposition Kuomintang.
Viewed widely as a proxy battle between the U.S. and China, Lai’s campaign emphasizing self-determination, social justice, and resistance to China’s threats resonated with Taiwanese voters, earning their trust even in the face of increasing pressure from Beijing.
China’s foreign ministry promptly issued a statement following Lai’s election win asserting Beijing’s “One China” policy.
“Whatever changes take place in Taiwan, the basic fact that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China will not change,” it said. “The Chinese government’s position of upholding the one-China principle and opposing ‘Taiwan independence’ separatism, ‘two Chinas’ and ‘one China, one Taiwan’ will not change,” it added.
Korea Times
Here is how the Yoon administration in South Korea has reacted to the election:
The Yoon Suk Yeol administration has displayed a strong inclination towards the U.S., as the president stated in previous media interviews that Seoul opposes attempts to alter the status quo by force in reference to tensions in the Taiwan Strait, despite China’s displeasure. Simultaneously, Korea maintains its adherence to Beijing’s “One China” policy, refraining from reinstating diplomatic ties with Taiwan that were severed in 1992 when Seoul established diplomatic relations with Beijing.
An official at Seoul’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, “We hope for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and peaceful progress in China-Taiwan relations,” adding that the Korean government’s stance on Taiwan has not changed, while Seoul hopes for practical cooperation with Taiwan in various fields.
You can read more at the link.
If China would quit threatening Taiwan with naval blockades and firing missiles over the country than the U.S. would not need to send personnel to help train them in the first place:
The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Milius (DDG 69) conducts a routine Taiwan Strait transit on April 16, 2023. (U.S. Navy)
China warned against continued U.S.-Taiwan cooperation Wednesday, responding to reports that the U.S. military was sending officers to help train Taiwan’s counterparts and that a delegation of defense contractors would visiting the self-ruled island next week.
“We resolutely oppose the U.S. having any form of official or military contact with China’s Taiwan region,” Zhu Fenglian, spokeswoman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said at a weekly press briefing in Beijing.
Stars & Stripes
You can read more at the link.
As long as President Emperor Xi is in charge, I don’t think the Chinese are interested in dialogue with Taiwan when they saw how effective blunt force was to crush Hong Kong and no one did anything to stop it. They are waiting for the right moment to use force against Taiwan as well when they feel like no one can stop them as well:
Vedant Patel, principal deputy spokesperson for the Department of State, is seen answering questions during a daily press briefing at the department in Washington on April 21, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)
A U.S. state department spokesperson on Friday echoed South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s recent remarks against China changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by force.
Vedant Patel, principal deputy spokesperson for the state department, also said the United States will continue to work with its allies, including South Korea, to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
“We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in dialogue with Taiwan,” the spokesperson told a daily press briefing.
Yonhap
You can read more at the link.
President Yoon did not even mention anything about the One China Policy, only that the status quo should stay in place with Taiwan, in other words he does not want a major war in the region. For China advocating against a major war in the region is considered meddling:
The foreign ministry strongly denounced China for committing a “serious diplomatic discourtesy” Thursday after a Chinese official branded President Yoon Suk Yeol’s recent comments on Taiwan as a verbal meddling by others.
The ministry issued the statement after the Chinese foreign ministry’s spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, said earlier in the day Beijing would not allow others to meddle by word, in reference to Yoon’s media interview the previous day in which he expressed opposition to any change in the status quo of the Taiwan Strait by force.
Wang also called on Seoul to adhere to the “One China” policy under the spirit of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, saying solving the Taiwan issue is solely a matter of China’s own affairs.
Seoul’s foreign ministry said Wang’s comments were “unspeakable.”
Yonhap
You can read more at the link, but it is pretty clear that China is trying to send a message to South Korea that war with Taiwan is coming and they better stay out of it.
I hope what is going on in Ukraine right now is motivating the Taiwanese to do more to improve their own defensive posture because these leaked documents make it sound like they have a lot of work to do:
Taiwan is unlikely to thwart Chinese military air superiority in a cross-strait conflict, while tactics such as China’s use of civilian ships for military purposes have eroded U.S. spy agencies’ ability to detect a pending invasion, according to leaked Pentagon assessments that contain troubling details about the self-governed island’s ability to fend off war.
The assessments state that Taiwan officials doubt their air defenses can “accurately detect missile launches,” that barely more than half of Taiwan’s aircraft are fully mission capable and that moving the jets to shelters would take at least a week – a huge problem if China launched missiles before Taiwan had a chance to disperse those planes.
The classified documents addressing a potential conflict suggest China’s air force would have a much better shot at establishing early control of the skies – a strategy that Taipei itself believes will underpin an attack – than Russia did in Ukraine.
Stars & Stripes
You can read more at the link.
China spent the weekend trying to intimidate Taiwan:
China sent warships and dozens of fighter jets toward Taiwan on Saturday, the Taiwanese government said, in retaliation for a meeting between the U.S. House of Representatives speaker and the president of the self-ruled island democracy claimed by Beijing as part of its territory.
The Chinese military announced the start of three-day “combat readiness patrols” as a warning to Taiwanese who want to make the island’s de facto independence permanent. The People’s Liberation Army gave no indication whether they might include a repeat of previous exercises with missiles fired into the sea, which disrupted shipping and airline flights.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy held talks with President Tsai Ing-wen on Thursday in California, adding to a series of foreign lawmakers who have met Tsai to show support in the face of Chinese intimidation. Beijing responded Friday by imposing a travel ban and financial sanctions against American groups and individuals associated with Tsai’s U.S. visit.
On Saturday, eight warships and 42 planes were detected near Taiwan, 29 of which flew across the middle line of the strait that separates it from the mainland, the island’s Ministry of Defense said. It said they included Chengdu J-10, Shenyang J-11 and Shenyang J-16 jet fighters.
Stars & Stripes
You can read more at the link.
