Tag: peace treaty

The Moon administration is in desperation mode to get a Korean War peace treaty signed before they office this Spring:

It is the right time to declare an end to the Korean War, as an unprecedentedly favorable environment for the implementation of the declaration has been set up among relevant countries, according to Unification Minister Lee In-young.

In this regard, he also believes the first half of the year could be a “golden time” to make strides in frayed inter-Korean ties and stalled nuclear negotiations between North Korea and the United States, citing a heap of political events in the second half of the year that could disrupt efforts toward Pyongyang-related issues. 

Strongly believing such an agreement could serve as a catalyst for negotiations on the denuclearization of North Korea, President Moon Jae-in resurrected his proposal of declaring a formal end to the 1950-53 conflict in a speech at the United Nations last September. 

Since then, South Korean and U.S. diplomats have been meeting frequently with each other to discuss the proposal, while National Security Director Suh Hoon also drew support from China following a meeting with top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi in December.

Korea Times

Look at what some people want to give up to North Korea to entice them to meet to discuss a peace treaty that is a favorable action towards them anyway:

The lasting silence is fueling speculation that Seoul and Washington should offer something to entice North Korea into responding to the end-of-war issue, and the suspension of combined military drills and partial sanctions relief are being mentioned as possible incentives among others.

You can read more at the link, but the North Koreans want this peace treaty in order to question the legitimacy of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. If there is peace why are U.S. troops and by extension the UN Command needed?

If the Kim regimes wants a peace treaty they should agree to actions that actually makes it look like they want peace. For example removing all their artillery off of the DMZ would show the seriousness of their peace overtures. If they want peace why do they need artillery to target Seoul and other metropolitan areas?

I am concerned that with the Biden administration’s falling approval ratings that they would agree to a Korean War Peace Treaty just to get an easy foreign policy victory. The temptation of a Nobel Peace Prize might be enough to get the them to agree to it. The below comments from the Unification Minister has me worried that the Moon administration has been successful in getting the Biden administration to agree to the peace treaty:

 Discussions over an end-of-war declaration with North Korea will soon come to a close, a South Korean government official said.

The country’s Ministry of Unification chief, Lee In-young, made the remarks during an academic conference at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies’ campus in Seoul on Friday.

The Unification Minister said Seoul and Washington, D.C., “have been holding deep discussions very seriously” regarding a declaration to formally end the war, adding that it “is coming to a finish to some degree.”

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link, but a peace treaty is a bad idea for a variety of reasons I have explained before.

It looks like the Moon administration is thinking the Biden administration is probably at its most amiable time to push this initiative thinking they are desperate for a foreign policy “victory”:

Suh Hoon, director of national security, said Monday that he plans to discuss President Moon Jae-in’s recent proposal to declare an end to the 1950-53 Korean War in the United States this week.    

“The communication channels between the two Koreas are up and working again, it is time to reaffirm where we stand on inter-Korean and North-U.S. relations,” Suh told a group of reporters upon arrival at Reagan airport on Monday.    

“The declaration to end the Korean War will also be discussed [with my counterparts],” he said, adding that the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and possible sanctions relief for North Korea may also be included in the conversations.  

The Moon government from its early days has been calling for a formal declaration to end the Korean War, with the call repeated again at the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York last month, when Moon gave a speech. The Korean War ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty, leaving the two Koreas technically still at war.   

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but I guess we will see if the Biden administration falls for this or not.

A Korean War peace treaty is something that North Korea has long sought as a way to end the presence of US troops in South Korea. If there is peace why is USFK needed?

President Moon has been saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed, to include claiming Kim Jong-un understands this as well. However, this is likely just rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against a peace treaty before next Spring’s presidential election.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he openly advocated for a USFK withdrawal, that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him and the ruling party with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  

Expect the Moon administration to continue to push this initiative along with dropping sanctions while North Korea pressures the Biden administration with their weapons provocations. This is all intended to push the Biden administration into a deal the Kim regime wants while Washington can claim a foreign policy victory by ending the provocation cycle.

Here we go again with President Moon wanting a declaration to end the Korean War:

President Moon Jae-in once again renewed his call for a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War in an effort to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula, but the feasibility of his proposal is questionable, given the state of relations between the two Koreas and the U.S. 

During a speech at the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Tuesday (EST), Moon proposed a trilateral or quadrilateral declaration to proclaim a formal end to the Korean War. 

The war ended in an armistice signed in 1953 by the U.S.-led United Nations Command, China and North Korea, leaving the two Koreas technically still at war.

“Today, I once again urge the community of nations to mobilize its strengths for the end-of-war declaration on the Korean Peninsula, and propose that the three parties of the two Koreas and the U.S., or the four parties of the two Koreas, the U.S. and China, come together and declare that the war on the Korean Peninsula is over,” Moon said. 

“When the parties involved in the Korean War stand together and proclaim an end to the war, I believe we can make irreversible progress in denuclearization and usher in an era of complete peace,” he added.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but the rhetoric for ending the Korean War has been going on for years because both the Moon administration and the Kim regime in North Korea want the peace treaty because it then challenges the legitimacy of the U.S. military presence in South Korea.  If there is peace why is USFK needed? The Korean left and the Kim regime have always wanted the U.S. out of Korea and a peace treaty with little to nothing in return from North Korea is one path towards doing that.

The real question is if the Biden administration is going to take the bait on this or not? With all the bad headlines they may be eager for something that looks like a foreign policy victory by pursuing such a declaration. I guess we will see what happens.

It is pretty obvious what the diplomatic difference between the U.S. and the Moon administration are on declaring the end of the Korean War. The Moon administration wants a Korean War peace treaty regardless of progress on the North Korean nuclear issue while U.S. wants significant progress on denuclearization before reaching a deal:

Suh Hoon, director of the Blue House’s National Security Office, said Thursday that President Moon Jae-in’s proposal to formally end the Korean War is part of the process to denuclearize North Korea, dismissing speculation that Seoul and Washington are at odds over the initiative.    

“It is common sense that the end-of-war declaration cannot be separated from [the denuclearization process],” Suh said during a meeting with reporters in Washington, following his meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.    

“Pushing for the end-of-war declaration is not a new issue […] It has always been on the negotiation table, and Korea and the United States cannot have different opinions on it.”   

He noted, however, that the issue was not specifically addressed during his U.S. trip.   

“What is important is whether the end-of-war declaration comes first or after denuclearization,” Suh said. “And how strongly it will be linked to the denuclearization process. It is better not to speculate too much.”   

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

This bad idea keeps coming up:

President Moon Jae-in’s speech early Wednesday morning at the 75th United Nations General Assembly contained some proposals on engaging North Korea. 

Political watchers, however, generally view the proposals, including declaring an end to the 1950-53 Korean War, as unrealistic in the current deadlock in inter-Korean and denuclearization talks.

Moon called for the support of the international community in declaring an official end to the war, which was halted by an armistice, not a peace treaty. He also proposed the establishment of a new network of countries in Northeast Asia, including the two Koreas, China, Japan and Mongolia, to promote cooperation in infectious disease control and the promotion of public health.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link but a Korean War peace treaty is something that North Korea has long sought as a way to end the presence of US troops in South Korea. If there is peace why is USFK needed?

President Moon has been saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed, to include claiming Kim Jong-un understands this as well. However, this is likely just rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against a peace treaty. 

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he openly advocated for a USFK withdrawal, that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  

That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK if a peace treaty is agreed to. Every USFK traffic accident, parking ticket, drunken fight, etc. will become a national headline complete with anti-US activists protesting to increase anti-US sentiment.  It will be the 2002-2004 timeframe all over again and this time the Korean left will hope that the US president decides to pull out USFK on his own accord.

Heck even our friends in Canada understand this.

Professor Sung-Yoon Lee at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University has an article published in the National Interest that hits many of the same theme I have shared on this site about any peace treaty signed with the DPRK:

I am willing to bet that Lieutenant General Eyre is saying things that US generals are not allowed to express:

A senior officer in the United Nations Command is urging caution about a declaration to end the Korean War, warning it could be a North Korean ploy to pull the South Korea-U.S. alliance apart.

Canadian Lieutenant-General Wayne Eyre is quoted as calling the prospective declaration a “slippery slope” in terms of the U.S. troop presence in South Korea.

In remarks at a Washington seminar, Eyre described the North Koreans as experts at “divide and conquer.”

Abut 28-thousand-500 U.S. troops are based in South Korea to deter or defeat a repeat of North Korea’s 1950 invasion or other provocations.

He said it needs to be questioned why North Korea is pushing so hard for an end-of-war declaration.

While noting that the recent climate of negotiations offered hope for a lasting peace, he suggested that a war-ending declaration would lead the public to question seriously the need for a continued U.S. troop presence on the peninsula.  [KBS World Radio]

I have said this repeatedly that after a peace treaty is signed the South Korea left will then mobilize to make life difficult for US troops in South Korea.  Every traffic accident, parking ticket, drunken fight, etc. will become a national headline to increase anti-US sentiment.  It will be the 2002-2004 timeframe all over again and this time the Korean left will hope that the US president decides to pull out USFK on his own accord.

The Kim regime continues to advocate for the Trump administration to end the Korean War:

North Korea repeatedly called for the U.S. to declare an end to the Korean War, as a means to protect its regime from hostilities. However, the U.S. has required North Korea to take tangible and verifiable denuclearization measures first.

So far, North Korea has shut down its Punggye-ri nuclear testing site and dismantled parts of its Tongchang-ri missile testing site, but these measures have yet to be verified.

The North has now pledged to shutdown the Tongchang-ri facility completely in a verifiable manner.

There had been expectations for the North to pledge to submit a list of its nuclear weapons in exchange for the U.S. declaring an end to the Korean War.

However, the North made clear that it would not take any further measures until the U.S. declares the end of the war.  [Korea Times]

This rhetoric of ending the Korean War has been going on for months because the Kim regime wants the peace treaty because it then challenges the legitimacy of the military presence in South Korea.  If there is peace why is USFK needed?

President Moon is saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed.  Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju.  President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.

The Moon administration’s Defense Minister nominee is advocating for an end to the Korean War:

Defense Minister nominee Jeong Kyeong-doo said in his confirmation hearing, Monday, that the military has bolstered defense readiness ahead of the upcoming inter-Korean summit.

He also said that formally ending the Korean War should be pushed forward according to the Panmunjeom Declaration.

Jeong, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said a treaty to end the war will be “a political proclamation” to pave the way for denuclearization, but this does not mean disbandment of the United Nations Command or the breakup of the South-U.S. defense alliance.

When asked about the North’s aim of seeking the end of the war for this summit, Jeong said “it was aimed at building trust between the two Koreas and North Korea and the U.S. in order to achieve the perfect denuclearization.”  [Korea Times]

General Jeong is remaining on script with the rest of the Moon administration about the future of the US-ROK alliance after any end of the Korean War.  The North Koreans, Chinese, Russians, and South Korean leftists all want US troops off of the peninsula.  Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju.  President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.