Tag: ICBM

According to the article this failed ICBM launch was intended to fly over Japan. This is one of my concerns that a failed missile launch ends up impacting in Japan, what could the response to such an incident lead to?:

North Korea continued its saber-rattling for the second day straight, Thursday, by firing at least six missiles, but its military show of force ended up being compromised after the launch of the country’s largest and most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) failed while in flight.

The unsuccessful ICBM launch may cause further delays to the possible next nuclear test by the North, which is believed to have been fully prepared for it since May, as it is still short of putting the United States on high alert or gaining its attention, according to diplomatic observers. 

According to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), North Korea launched what was presumed to be an ICBM from the Sunan area of Pyongyang at 7:40 a.m., then two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) from Kaechon in South Pyongan Province at 8:39 a.m. The JCS also said that it detected three SRBMs between 9:35 p.m. and 9:49 p.m. traveling toward the East Sea from Koksan County in North Hwanghae Province. 

As for the ICBM, the JCS did not specify what type of missile North Korea had prepared, but it was presumed to be the Hwasong-17, which analysts say may be capable of carrying multiple warheads and traveling up to 15,000 kilometers, far enough to strike anywhere in the U.S. The missile was first unveiled in October 2020.

The ICBM flew about 760 kilometers at an apogee of around 1,920 kilometers and a top speed of Mach 15, but something seemed to have gone wrong following second-stage separation, the JCS added.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but the failure means that the North Koreans will likely have to do another ICBM launch in the near term.

If this was an ICBM test the fact that it did not rise as high in apogee as other tests indicates something did not go right. For example the March ICBM test had an apogee of 4,475 kilometers. This test had an apogee of 780 kilometers:

North Korea’s state-controlled news outlets were unusually silent Thursday about the country’s latest ballistic missile test the previous day.

There had been no related reports by the secretive nation’s media, including the Korean Central News Agency and the Rodong Sinmun, as of 5 p.m., unlike Pyongyang’s usual practice of quickly boasting publicly about its major weapons tests.

On Wednesday, the North launched a ballistic missile, which flew 470 kilometers at a maximum altitude of 780 km before falling into the East Sea, according to South Korea’s military. Some informed sources said it seems to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) fired at a lofted angle.

The North’s media has usually carried reports, coupled with a number of photos, of such major missile tests the next morning, except for failed launches like the one in mid-March.

Observers here raised the possibility that the North failed to achieve its goal in the latest missile firing, the 14th of this year.

Military authorities here appeared intent on figuring out why the North’s state media had not reported on the missile launch.

“What appears to be certain is that the North did not conduct the missile launch at its fullest capacity,” a military source said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

So far North Korea has been using lofted trajectories to test their ICBMs so they land in the East Sea. However, they have fired missiles over Japan before, the most recent test in 2017. This would undoubtedly greatly increase tensions. However, they have also fired a space launch in 2016 pointing south towards the Philippines. It seems they would use this trajectory instead of firing over Japan to avoid ratcheting up tensions too much:

South Korean Defense Minister nominee Lee Jong-sup on Tuesday raised the possibility of North Korea test-firing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at a standard angle to prove its atmospheric reentry technology.

In a written answer to a lawmaker’s question, Lee said that the North could conduct another test of the Hwasong-17 ICBM to verify the technology required to ensure the missile’s warhead can withstand extremely high temperatures during reentry to Earth’s atmosphere.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

North Korea needs a viable ICBM threat to pressure the US in any future negotiations. Is it far fetched to believe that the Biden administration could drop sanctions in return for a freeze on their ICBM program? If offered the Kim regime would probably likely take it because they get to keep their nukes and shorter and medium range missiles to target the ROK and Japan. The money from dropping sanctions can then be used to further modernize their nuclear and ballistic missile programs:

North Korea said Friday that it successfully test-fired a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), called the Hwasong-17, the previous day on the direct order of its leader Kim Jong-un.

Making an on-site inspection of the test, Kim stressed his country would be “fully ready for long-standing confrontation with the U.S. imperialists,” according to the North’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). 

Kim was quoted as adding, “The new strategic weapon of the DPRK would make the whole world clearly aware of the power of our strategic armed forces once again.” DPRK stands for the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

I guess we will see if this is North Korea’s post Winter Olympics provocation:

Speculation is mounting that North Korea is preparing a satellite launch, following reports on Monday by state media that the country is determined to “conquer space.”  
   
Yun Sun-yong, a member of the North’s National Science and Technology Commission, emphasized the country’s will to “conquer space” during a Monday radio broadcast aired by the state-run Korean Central Broadcasting Committee to mark the sixth anniversary of the launch of the Kwangmyongsong No. 4, an earth observation satellite the North launched in February 2016.  
   
“The path to conquer space will be continued today and tomorrow, and the heroic legend of juche Korea, which astounds the world, will be created anew continuously.” 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but this will raise tensions because the U.S. and the West will claim that North Korea is testing ICBM technology with this launch.

Here is the latest on what North Korea’s now very delayed Christmas gift could be:

North Korea may be prepared to test-fire an advanced intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to threaten the U.S. mainland, the U.S. northern commander has said, citing rocket engine tests Pyongyang conducted in December. 

Gen. Terrence J. O’Shaughnessy, commander of the U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command, made the remark in a statement submitted for a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing Thursday, referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s earlier warning of a “new strategic weapon” and a “shocking actual action.”

“While Kim did not specify what this new weapon would be, recent engine testing suggests North Korea may be prepared to flight-test an even more capable ICBM design that could enhance Kim’s ability to threaten our homeland during a crisis or conflict,” O’Shaughnessy said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

I don’t know why anyone in the media is surprised by this, the Kim regime never promised to stop weapons development, why would they?:

North Korea never halted efforts to build powerful new weapons, experts say

But the recent surge in activity also appears to confirm something that U.S. intelligence agencies have long suspected: Despite a self-imposed moratorium on testing its most advanced missiles during the past two years, North Korea never halted its efforts to build powerful, new weapons. Indeed, Kim’s scientists appear to have used the lull to improve and expand the country’s arsenal quietly, U.S. and East Asian officials say.

U.S. analysts say the two tests at Sohae appear to reflect months of continued work on North Korea’s arsenal of potent liquid-fueled missiles, which already includes two ICBMs, the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15, capable of striking the U.S.. But the country’s scientists have demonstrated progress on other kinds of missiles as well. In the months since the failed U.S.-North Korean summit in Vietnam, Pyongyang has tested five new short- and medium-range missiles, all of which use solid propellants. Solid-fueled missiles are more mobile and easier to hide compared with similar rockets that use liquid fuel.

Washington Post

You can read more at the link.

It appears the North Koreans are being very open to make sure satellites capture what they are doing to drive media coverage prior to a provocation:

South Korea has been working closely with the United States to analyze a “very important test” that North Korea claimed to have conducted at its satellite launching site over the weekend, the defense ministry said Monday.

The communist country said Sunday that it carried out the test successfully at its Sohae Satellite Launching Ground, referring to its Dongchang-ri site in North Pyongyan Province, the previous day.

Pyongyang did not elaborate on what it tested but noted that results “will have an important effect on changing the strategic position of the DPRK once again in the near future.” The DPRK stands for the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but this is apparently a new ICBM engine being tested. I have long speculated that the Kim regime could test an ICBM and then call it a “space launch”. They can claim they have the right to the peaceful use of space and never promised to suspend their space program. Plus this will give the Russians and the Chinese the ability to diplomatically cover for them if the U.S. tries to increase sanctions through the United Nations.