North Korea has given Vice President Harris some fireworks to welcome her to Seoul:
North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) into the East Sea on Wednesday, ratcheting up tensions amid an ongoing South Korea-U.S. naval exercise involving an American aircraft carrier.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected the launches from the Sunan area in Pyongyang between 6:10 p.m. and 6:20 p.m., and that the missiles flew some 360 kilometers at apogees of around 30 km at top speeds of about Mach 6.
It did not provide other details, saying the intelligence authorities of South Korea and the United States are conducting a detailed analysis to verify the specifics of the missiles.
The launches came just three days after the North fired off an SRBM into the East Sea (….)
The latest saber-rattling came as U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris plans to visit Seoul on Thursday and the allies’ Navies are staging an exercise featuring the nuclear-powered USS Ronald Reagan carrier in the East Sea.
The U.S. carrier, a centerpiece of America’s naval might, arrived here on Friday for the first allied exercise near the peninsula in five years. The four-day exercise is set to run through Thursday.
North Korea just could not help itself and desperately had to make a headline since Vice President Harris will be in Seoul later this week:
North Korea fired a short-range ballistic missile into the East Sea on Sunday, South Korea’s military said, two days after a nuclear-powered U.S. aircraft carrier arrived here for allied drills.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected the launch from an area in or around Taechon, North Pyongan Province, at 6:53 a.m., and that it flew some 600 kilometers at an apogee of around 60 km at a top speed of Mach 5.
The intelligence authorities of the South and the United States are conducting a detailed analysis for other details, the JCS said.
The launch came as U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris plans to visit Seoul later this week and the allies are set to hold a joint maritime exercise in the East Sea, involving the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group.
Another capability to disguise and quickly launch ballistic missiles has been confirmed by North Korea. This will just make it more challenging for intelligence analysts to track North Korea’s ballistic missiles:
This photo, released by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Sept. 16, 2021, shows a railway-borne missile regiment holding a firing drill a day earlier.
North Korea said Thursday that a railway-borne missile regiment held a firing drill a day earlier, confirming the launches, apparently from a train, of two short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea.
“The railway-borne missile regiment took part in the drill with a mission to strike the target area 800 kilometers away from its location after moving to the central mountainous area at dawn on September 15,” the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said.
The KCNA said the North accurately struck the target in the East Sea.
I think under the current government I just don’t see the U.S. being able to host ballistic missiles in the ROK:
Marshall Billingslea, special US presidential envoy for arms control, speaks during a press conference in Seoul. (Yonhap)
The United States is not ready yet to talk with allies about deployment of its specific military capabilities, a senior US official said Monday, as Washington is considering deploying intermediate-range missiles in East Asia to counterbalance China’s growing capabilities.
Marshall Billingslea, special US presidential envoy for arms control, also said in an interview with Yonhap News Agency and other local media outlets in Seoul that North Korea’s recent apology for the killing of a South Korean fisheries official is a good first step toward resolving the issue.
Billingslea arrived in Seoul on Sunday for a two-day visit.
The trip came as the US has been considering deploying intermediate-range missiles in Asia to counter China after withdrawing from the 1988 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) last year amid speculation that South Korea could be one of the candidate sites.
Claiming that China test-fired missiles 225 times last year alone, which is more than the number of launches by all the other countries in the world combined, Billingslea called on China to come forward and discuss the matter with the US, which is not a request but its legal obligation.
This is something that would greatly tip the balance of power back towards the United States if China had to account for hundreds of tactical ballistic missiles pointed at them from surrounding countries just like the U.S. military has to do for Chinese missiles:
On Aug. 18, 2019, the Defense Department conducted a flight test of a conventionally configured ground-launched cruise missile at San Nicolas Island, Calif.
The first of the new weapons could be in operation within two years, though no decision has been announced about where they will be based. Similar missiles are now carried on U.S. warships and planes based in Asia, but there are no land-based systems.
U.S. officials say that many allies are privately supportive of the missile plan and may come around to permitting them on their territory but don’t want to provoke opposition from Beijing and their own public before decisions are on the table.
The U.S. has a defense treaty with Japan, as it does with South Korea, the Philippines and Australia. Taiwan is not a formal ally but has close, unofficial defense ties with Washington.
“We are very attentive to our allies’ concerns, and we recognized their political challenges,” said a senior defense official, who agreed to discuss Pentagon planning if he was not identified. “Everything that’s said in the media is not necessarily what’s said behind closed doors.”
There is now way these missiles will be allowed in South Korea, but the Philippines would be the ideal location for them in response to a South China Sea scenario. The Philippines of course would demand huge concessions in return which I would not be surprised if this is something being negotiated now.
This photo provided by the North Korean government shows military exercise at an undisclosed location in North Korea on Sunday, March 29, 2020. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: “KCNA” which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)
There is a lot of analysis going on right now in regards to what the Iranian missile strike will lead to:
Iran responded to the United States’ killing of its top military official, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, by firing over a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S. military facilities in Iraq Tuesday night.
The move is likely to stoke fear of a war between the U.S. and Iran, but retired Col. Stephen Ganyard, a former fighter pilot and ABC News military analyst, said that what happens next will really depend on the damage incurred by the missiles, which were fired at the Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq and the Ain Al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq.
“It depends on what they hit. If they hit nothing, then the situation may de-escalate. If they hit something substantial and if they hurt Americans, then they can expect this will lead to a significant U.S. retaliation,” said Ganyard.
It is being reported that the missile strike did not hurt any Americans which leads me to conclude that the attack was carefully planned to try and not hurt anyone. If the Iranians gave a lot of indications and warnings of an impending attack this would give the people at each location time to shelter in hardened structures. Additionally if the strikes hit on the perimeter of the bases that would reduce the risk of casualties as well.
I believe the Iranians calculated that if they killed any Americans President Trump would have to respond forcefully. Now with little damage to show for the missile attack it gives the U.S. President reason to not respond forcibly while allowing the Iranians to save face. Ironically this missile attack is likely a deescalation attempt by the Iranians.
However, what I am most interested in is what will the North Koreans learn from this missile attack? I have always believed that if a pre-emptive strike was taken against North Korea’s nuclear or missile related facilities the Kim regime would respond with ballistic missile strikes against U.S. military bases in South Korea. If President Trump does not respond strongly to the Iranian missile attack, this could signal to the Kim regime that such a strategy could be feasible as long as Americans are not killed.
That would be a difficult feat to pull off considering how densely populated South Korea is around U.S. military bases compared to the two bases in Iraq. However, if a U.S. airstrike killed North Korean soldiers or civilians they could justify the killing of U.S. military servicemembers in such a retaliatory strike.
Unlike the two bases in Iraq, U.S. military bases in South Korea do have missile defense battery’s to protect them. This will help mitigate any attack, but no missile defense is 100% effective if North Korea is committed to massing fires on one location.
As far ROK nationals killed or injured I think the Kim regime cares less about because they don’t feel the Blue House would push for forceful retaliation and they could just blame the death of the ROK nationals on the U.S. for conducting the pre-emptive strike. The Korean left would assuredly promote this rationale and likely be protesting the U.S. after any such attack.
So whatever response comes from the Trump administration after the Iranian missile attack, North Korea will assuredly be closely watching to inform any future response plans they may have.
How can the ROK defend NK’s undisclosed operational missile bases? For the sake of “fake diplomacy”? Just read the UN Security Council resolutions —which ban ALL ballistic missiles from NK. Seriously, how contorted can these rationalizations for NK weapons possession get?? https://t.co/qif9Ogwfzq
President Moon said KJU is not deceiving anyone because he never agreed to close SRBM bases, and they aren't related to ICBMs or IRBMs. Which means he's ok with NK pointing SRBMs at SKorea.
I love this feeling of schadenfreude watching Moon make a total ass of himself. https://t.co/niYIL7VHhE
— John Lee (The Korean Foreigner) (@koreanforeigner) November 13, 2018
👇1. Exactly what I told @washingtonpost@mradamtaylor but this part of my quote didnt make it in story (it's ok, it happens; @ArmsControlWonk said it but slightly differently). NK is doing what KJU ordered it to do in Jan 1 – mass produce missiles and nuke warheads… https://t.co/EIxd86U2X2
