What Would China Do If the US Attacks North Korea?

I tend to agree with this analysis from Carl Schuster from Hawaii Pacific University:

But if U.S. forces were to enter North Korea, how China responds will depend largely on why, said Carl Schuster, a retired Navy captain who now lectures at Hawaii Pacific University.

“Let’s say North Korea does something stupid like launches a missile that lands in South Korea or hits a U.S. base, or North Korea suddenly fires some artillery rounds across the DMZ and Seoul, if North Korea does that, China will have no problem with us pounding North Korea’s government into the dirt,” he said.

But there is a difference between aerial strikes and troops on the ground, and how the Chinese regime will respond to either is uncertain. At the very least, Beijing will seek international pressure to stop a U.S. offensive.

But while crossing the 38th parallel may be tolerated under some circumstances, taking the North Korean capital will not be, he said.

“If it looks like we are going to go north of Pyongyang, in their minds, that will be a red line.”

China may tolerate U.S. forces crossing the border to crush the North Korean army, he said, but he expects Beijing would send forces to occupy Pyongyang. North Korea’s capital will remain a no-go zone, he said.

“If North Korea initiates the conflict, China will watch it closely, prepare for North Korea’s defeat, but they won’t intervene if we don’t go to far.”  [The Epoch Times]

You can read much more at the link, but I have always believed there is a strong possibility the Chinese would move in and occupy Pyongyang if they feared the US or ROK were going to occupy North Korea.  This would not be a repeat though of the massive Chinese intervention into the Korean War where they played a significant combat role.  Instead I believe the Chinese will rapidly, but openly move into Pyongyang under the guise of being peacekeepers.

If the US or the ROK were to attack the Chinese troops they would be initiating combat against peacekeepers.  I think this will likely prevent any action against the Chinese troops and give Beijing a strong negotiating hand to settle the conflict in a way favorable to Chinese interests.