Here is what a Yonsei professor who is an expert in international relations had to say about the incoming Trump administration:
Moon Chung-in, Yonsei University professor emeritus
Hankyoreh (Hani): Can you describe in broad strokes how the Trump administration will affect the Korean Peninsula?
Moon Chung-in (Moon): The Korean Peninsula policy won‘t be taking shape until April or May, when all the assistant secretaries have been appointed and confirmed. There are a lot of variables. But the main question is whether the Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia” policy will be retained, since that is linked to the global strategy the Trump administration comes up with. One has to bear in mind that Trump will reconsider the alliances according to his “America first” policy and that he’s more interested in geoeconomics [than geopolitics]. It’s also important to remember that Trump has a tendency to acknowledge what is called the Chinese and Russian sphere of influence, so he‘s not on the same page as the geopolitical strategy of checking and blockading China.
Hani: What kind of changes do you expect for the South Korea-US alliance?
Moon: Trump is blunt about the alliances. He has called out South Korea, Japan, NATO, Germany and Saudi Arabia for getting a “free ride.” He has a strong sense that the US is the benefactor and that its allies are the beneficiaries. The primary issue is adjusting how much of the joint cost of the South Korea-US alliance is covered by the two sides. First is defense burden sharing. South Korea spends 2.4% of its GDP on defense, and Trump could ask it to increase this to the US level of 4.3%. Second is defense cost sharing related to US Forces in Korea. South Korea is covering around 50%, and Trump could ask it to cover as much as 100% of this. These adjustments could be complicated by resistance inside South Korea. If a progressive government comes to power in South Korea, the question of pushing forward the transfer of wartime operational control [of South Korean troops to South Korea] would be sure to come up. Trump is likely to say that South Korea can have it right now if it wants it. He tends to act on instinct and impulse. [Hankyoreh]
My question about Trump is why he’s calling out on all his allies, yet fail to call out Israel who happens to be the most largest US aid recipient for the last several decades. US is now giving another $30 billion in aid to Israel. The amount of annual economic and military aid given to Israel pales in comparison to what the US pays to keep troops in South Korea. South Korea at least bought $30 billion worth of US military arms since 2007, making South Korea the top US military arms purchaser.
guitard
7 years ago
“Trump is likely to say that South Korea can have it (wartime operational control) right now if it wants it. He tends to act on instinct and impulse.”
C’mon Professor Moon, you’re an expert in international relations. Surely you know what someone says on the campaign trail and what that person actually does once in office (after having gained a full grasp of the matter) are often very different.
You do realize that aid package to Israel is spread out over ten years? It’s still huge (the largest of any country), but you excluded an extremely important fact.
My question about Trump is why he’s calling out on all his allies, yet fail to call out Israel who happens to be the most largest US aid recipient for the last several decades. US is now giving another $30 billion in aid to Israel. The amount of annual economic and military aid given to Israel pales in comparison to what the US pays to keep troops in South Korea. South Korea at least bought $30 billion worth of US military arms since 2007, making South Korea the top US military arms purchaser.
“Trump is likely to say that South Korea can have it (wartime operational control) right now if it wants it. He tends to act on instinct and impulse.”
C’mon Professor Moon, you’re an expert in international relations. Surely you know what someone says on the campaign trail and what that person actually does once in office (after having gained a full grasp of the matter) are often very different.
You do realize that aid package to Israel is spread out over ten years? It’s still huge (the largest of any country), but you excluded an extremely important fact.
Not to mention a Korean should understand haggling…
The Prof sounds like Baghdad Bob.