I don’t think we are going to see the North Koreans do anything serious until the whole President Park fiasco plays out. They are getting a propaganda coup out of this scandal and have a real chance of having a South Korean left wing politician favorable to North Korea elected as the next President. A serious provocation cycle could put all of this at risk:
In this photo, taken on Nov. 8, 2016, Thomas S. Vandal, commanding general of the Eighth Army, delivers a speech on security issues at a Seoul university. (Yonhap)
A top U.S. general here warned that North Korea could stage a provocation within two months to test the incoming U.S. administration or take advantage of political instability in Seoul.
Thomas S. Vandal, commander of the Eighth Army, made the remark in a luncheon meeting with senior reporters, citing the communist country’s track record of staging provocations in times of transition of power in Seoul and Washington.
Though there are no specific signs yet, he said, North Korea could raise military tension in an attempt to test President-elect Donald Trump, as Pyongyang has no idea of his policy toward the North.
He also said the North may also be tempted to provoke the South at a time Seoul is transfixed by a sprawling corruption scandal involving President Park Geun-hye and her close confidante. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but I think the February/March timeframe when the next Key Resolve exercise happens the North Koreans will probably do there normal protests and rhetoric. However, I don’t expect them to do a serious provocation such as sinking a South Korean ship or launching an artillery strike on a border island like we have seen in the past.
